Phillies: New 2-slot starter
While the drama for the Phillies builds to an offseason crescendo at or slightly before day one of spring training, general manager Matt Klentak knows a winning record this summer will accelerate expectations.
Hidden gem:
Viewing the roster with dread, some Philadelphia Phillies fans have already decided the rotation after Aaron Nola is hopeless. Ergo, a diamond is not among the cast-aside stones because they saw no one other than Nola shine in the last two years.
IN OTHER WORDS: “A thing long expected takes the form of the unexpected when at last it comes.” – Mark Twain
Setting the tone for limited hot-stove activity, super agent Scott Boras is your villain. He has the top-four starters on the free-agent market, and he will make the fans, writers, front offices and players wait until pitchers and catchers report to maximize the earnings.
Yes, Boras is even affecting trade possibilities because organizations can demand lopsided hauls for their premium pitching talent. In fact, those GMs have sky-high asking prices to capitalize on the lack of free-agent movement. No signings, no swaps!
The good news–if you consider it that–is almost every franchise is at a standstill regarding their starting staff. Fortunately, the entire industry isn’t grinding to a halt, but most clubs are still constructing their rotations. So, Klentak is doing his due diligence and waiting for a bargain if it comes.
As for the Internet, knowledgeable locals on one Phillies site believed they could steal a Jake Arrieta or a Yu Darvish for $90 million over three campaigns. But neither will offer such a discounted opportunity length-wise. No, Klentak has only a marginal shot at acquiring Alex Cobb.
Underestimating the market and overestimating the Phils’ outfielders in center and right field, the faithful have convinced only themselves regarding desirable moundsmen on other teams. But those franchises can deal for outfielders without parting with their top arms.
Among the candidates for the five-man staff, one in-house challenger could emerge to slot behind Nola and form a one-two punch by April’s end. Will it be Ben Lively, Vince Velasquez, Thomas Eshelman, Jerad Eickhoff, Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Mark Leiter or Nick Pivetta?
By March 15, many hopefuls will have decent numbers because they’ll be busting their tails to make the rotation. Will the two-slot starter be a flamethrower, a finesse hurler or a finally healthy pitcher?
Bottom to top:
In reverse order, this forecast begins with the bottom rung of the five-man staff. And although the number two will be in the rotation on Opening Day, he’ll earn that second spot during April. The exception will be an unforeseen event: a trade, an injury or a free-agent signing.
Firstly, this moundsman reportedly has elite control and was a real get by the red pinstripes in their rebuilding plan: dealing valuable pieces for multiple prospects. And who will be the fifth starter? Eshelman!
Granted, the right-hander will open the season with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs for the first two months. And when an opportunity arises, he’ll have his first shot.
In the four slot, this hurler has above-average smoke and could be on the verge of putting it all together. So, who will fill this spot for most of 2018? Velasquez!
Though many fans gave up on him as a starter, others stated he doesn’t have the control to be a reliever. Unfortunately, the hometown nine don’t have an immediate replacement, and swapping for or signing a starter is currently a problem for most execs.
In a similar situation, Carlos Carrasco had 47 starts before he developed into a solid two-slot arm in 2014, and Velasquez is currently at the 46-game mark. But because most players don’t make an impact until the third year, the fireballer could exceed the zero expectations of some locals. Additionally, Carrasco was 27 at that time and Velasquez will be 26.
The Cleveland Indians had moved Carrasco to the bullpen after four debacles in ’14, and he earned another rotation shot in August. As for Velasquez, he like third baseman Maikel Franco probably has one more chance because of his fastball and four open spots on the starting staff.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “Nobody wants a prediction that the future will be more or less like the present, even if that is, statistically speaking, an excellent prediction.” – Nathan Myhrvold
Personal forecast:
With excellent control of his slider and his curveball, this pitcher has been dependable when he’s healthy. Who will be the three? Eickhoff!
The righty will probably bounce back next summer because he was on his way to doing so in July before his disabled-list stint. Therefore, he must again rely on being coachable and ambitious to have a solid ’18.
Barring any injuries or unexpected events, this returning starter will again dial up a 95-mph sinker to escape a jam. But his problem in 2017 was ignoring his physical limitations, suffering a slight injury, and trying to labor through it.
Landing on the DL was the end result twice in ’17 and a hard-learned lesson. Yes, the fear of losing one’s job is common in baseball.
In his case, the right-hander–aren’t they all?–had five strong outings consecutively for a 2.81 ERA: 32 innings with 10 earned runs. Then, his next three starts were dreadful: 15 frames with 22 earned runs for a 13.20 ERA. And, finally, that balky elbow stopped the 23-year-old.
In the majors, it’s not unusual for a young pitcher to, for instance, have offseason surgery and give an all-out effort the following campaign. But too much exertion on his body can lead to the disabled list.
Typically, one sign a moundsman is compensating for an injury is an out-of-nowhere string of poor performances before a health issue. Prediction: Who will learn from 2017 and have a breakout 2018 for the Phillies? Eflin!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies starters:
- Nola, 24.5: 27 Gms., 168 Inn., 12-11, a 3.54 ERA, a 3.27 FIP, a 3.38 xFIP, a 3.60 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
- Eickhoff, 27.5: 24 Gms., 128 Inn., 4-8, a 4.71 ERA, a 4.30 FIP, a 4.86 xFIP, a 4.72 SIERA, a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.52 WHIP.
- Velasquez, 25.5: 15 Gms., 72 Inn., 2-7, a 5.13 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.56 xFIP, a 4.70 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.50 WHIP.
Lively, almost 26:
- Phillies: 15 Gms., 88 2/3 Inn., 4-7, a 4.26 ERA, a 4.97 FIP, a 5.58 xFIP, a 5.27 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
- AAA: 16 Gms., 97 Inn., 7-5, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, a 3.97 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP.
Eflin, 23.5:
- Phillies: 11 Gms., 64 1/3 Inn., 1-5, a 6.16 ERA, a 6.10 FIP, a 5.21 xFIP, a 5.08 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
- AAA 8 Gms., 7 Starts, 43 1/3 Inn., 1-4, a 4.57 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 4.43 xFIP and a 1.45 WHIP.
Pivetta, almost 25:
- Phillies: 26 Gms., 133 Inn., 8-10, a 6.02 ERA, a 4.87 FIP, a 4.26 xFIP, a 4.32 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.51 WHIP.
- AAA: 5 Gms., 22 Inn., 5-0, a 1.41 ERA, a 1.71 FIP, a 2.85 xFIP and a 0.84 WHIP.
Thompson, 24:
- Phillies: 11 Gms., 8 Starts, 46 1/3 Inn., 3-2, a 3.88 ERA, a 5.92 FIP, a 5.54 xFIP, a 5.23 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.55 WHIP.
- AAA: 22 Gms., 118 1/3 Inn., 5-14, a 5.25 ERA, a 4.40 FIP, a 4.59 xFIP and a 1.55 WHIP.
Next: Phillies: Truth about rebuilding
Leiter, almost 27:
- Phillies: 27 Gms., 11 Starts, 90 2/3 Inn., 3-6, a 4.96 ERA, a 5.14 FIP, a 4.19 xFIP, a 4.14 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
- AAA: 7 Gms., 5 Starts, 30 Inn., 2-1, a 4.20 ERA, a 3.67 FIP, a 2.49 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.
Eshelman, 23.5:
- AAA: 18 Gms., 121 Inn., 10-3, a 2.23 ERA, a 3.20 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP and a 0.94 WHIP.
- AA: 5 Gms., 29 Inn., 3-0, a 3.10 ERA, a 5.02 FIP, a 3.57 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.