Seattle Mariners counting too much on a Felix Hernandez bounce back?

The Seattle Mariners are hoping for 25 good starts from Felix Hernandez in 2018, but will that be enough to end their playoff drought?

After a quiet offseason, especially for GM Jerry Dipoto, the Seattle Mariners are pretty well set for the beginning of spring training. Dipoto recently spoke to local media at a pre-spring training luncheon at Safeco Field. One of the big takeaways from Dipoto was that the team is counting heavily on Felix Hernandez to bounce back from the worst season of his career.

Hernandez only made 16 starts last year and had a 4.36 ERA, the second-highest of his career. His FIP was even worse, at 5.02. The most significant issue for Hernandez was his rate of home runs allowed, which rose for the third straight year. He came into the season having allowed 0.8 home runs per nine innings in his career. His rate more than doubled his career rate in 2017, as he gave up 17 big flies in 86.7 innings, a rate of 1.8 per nine innings.

Despite his struggles and another year tacked on to his age, Hernandez is a key to the team’s fortunes next year, according to Dipoto. At the luncheon, he said, “Nuts and bolts, it comes down to how Felix comes in to spring training. If he can give us the 25 or more starts he gave us in 2016, we are going to be a good team.”

He went on to say that the rotation is pretty well set in the first four spots, with Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Mike Leake, and Erasmo Ramirez. Marco Gonzales will be given the opportunity to win the fifth spot, with Ariel Miranda and Andrew Moore also being in the mix. Gonzales has no minor league options remaining, so the Mariners could lose him to another team if they designate him for assignment.

Hernandez hasn’t been an elite pitcher for a few years now. His last great season was 2014, when he was 15-6 with a 2.14 ERA in 236 innings. He finished second in AL Cy Young voting that season. Since then, he’s had a 3.79 ERA in 441.7 innings, with a 4.29 FIP, and his average fastball velocity is down two miles per hour.