Seattle Mariners counting too much on a Felix Hernandez bounce back?

The Seattle Mariners are hoping for 25 good starts from Felix Hernandez in 2018, but will that be enough to end their playoff drought?

After a quiet offseason, especially for GM Jerry Dipoto, the Seattle Mariners are pretty well set for the beginning of spring training. Dipoto recently spoke to local media at a pre-spring training luncheon at Safeco Field. One of the big takeaways from Dipoto was that the team is counting heavily on Felix Hernandez to bounce back from the worst season of his career.

Hernandez only made 16 starts last year and had a 4.36 ERA, the second-highest of his career. His FIP was even worse, at 5.02. The most significant issue for Hernandez was his rate of home runs allowed, which rose for the third straight year. He came into the season having allowed 0.8 home runs per nine innings in his career. His rate more than doubled his career rate in 2017, as he gave up 17 big flies in 86.7 innings, a rate of 1.8 per nine innings.

Despite his struggles and another year tacked on to his age, Hernandez is a key to the team’s fortunes next year, according to Dipoto. At the luncheon, he said, “Nuts and bolts, it comes down to how Felix comes in to spring training. If he can give us the 25 or more starts he gave us in 2016, we are going to be a good team.”

He went on to say that the rotation is pretty well set in the first four spots, with Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Mike Leake, and Erasmo Ramirez. Marco Gonzales will be given the opportunity to win the fifth spot, with Ariel Miranda and Andrew Moore also being in the mix. Gonzales has no minor league options remaining, so the Mariners could lose him to another team if they designate him for assignment.

Hernandez hasn’t been an elite pitcher for a few years now. His last great season was 2014, when he was 15-6 with a 2.14 ERA in 236 innings. He finished second in AL Cy Young voting that season. Since then, he’s had a 3.79 ERA in 441.7 innings, with a 4.29 FIP, and his average fastball velocity is down two miles per hour.

Return of the King

He’s also the most expensive player on the roster and has two years and roughly $54 million left on his contract, so the team will try to get as much out of him as they can. Heading into the offseason, Dipoto acknowledged that Hernandez would likely be on a more restrictive pitch count in 2018 to preserve his health. He may get those 25 starts, but they will likely be in outings of 80 to 90 pitches, rather than 100 to 110 pitches.

With Felix fading, the best starting pitcher on the roster is James Paxton, but he comes with question marks about his ability to stay healthy. He pitched a career-high 136 innings last year. The team would be happy to get 175 innings out of him this year.

Mike Leake should be a solid number three starter. He’s been a consistent 30-start guy for the last six years. As a pitch-to-contact guy, he doesn’t have the upside that Paxton has. Last year, he ranked 51^st in strikeout rate out of the 56 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title.

Hernandez, Paxton, and Leake will front the rotation, and they may be the only starters the team uses consistently all year long. The fourth spot will likely be Erasmo Ramirez to start the season. He’s started and relieved in his career and has been okay at both, so he could move to the pen if someone emerges.

One more for the road?

If Mariners fans are still hoping the team will add another starting pitcher this offseason, they’ll likely be disappointed. Dipoto pointed out that the team has Paxton and Ramirez still under team control and Hernandez and Leake are signed through 2019 and 2020, respectively.

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The fifth spot will go to, in Dipoto’s words, someone “cost-effective,” which could be Gonzales, Miranda, Moore, or someone else. Remember that this is a team that used 17 different starting pitchers last year, so the Tacoma-to-Seattle shuttle is always an option.

Dipoto claims the Mariners will be a good team if Hernandez can make 25 or more starts as he established in 2016. He had a 3.82 ERA that year, but his 4.63 FIP suggests he was quite fortunate. He’s projected for 28 starts this year by the FanGraphs depth charts, but with a 4.38 ERA. That would make him a league average starter.

Even with Fernandez getting 28 starts, the Mariners rotation is projected to be 20^th in baseball. FanGraphs also projects the Mariners to be a .500 team, which puts them behind: The Astros (98-64), Indians (93-69), Yankees (91-71), Red Sox (91-71), Angels (88-74), and Blue Jays (84-78). Even with the Twins (81-81) in the American League. That leaves them seven games out of the second wild card spot.

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When it comes to projections, a difference of seven games is not insurmountable. You never know what will happen once the games start. One or more of the teams projected to be better than the Mariners could come back to them, and they could win more than expected. As of right now, though, even the 2016 version of Felix Hernandez isn’t enough to put the Mariners up there with the Astros, Indians, Yankees, or Red Sox.