Seattle Mariners counting too much on a Felix Hernandez bounce back?
One more for the road?
If Mariners fans are still hoping the team will add another starting pitcher this offseason, they’ll likely be disappointed. Dipoto pointed out that the team has Paxton and Ramirez still under team control and Hernandez and Leake are signed through 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Is Mariners’ starting pitching better than fans fear? Felix Hernandez is the key, Jerry Dipoto says (via @ryandivish) https://t.co/reWUt2DoD3 pic.twitter.com/uqGXo0npQd
— Seattle Times Sports (@SeaTimesSports) January 26, 2018
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The fifth spot will go to, in Dipoto’s words, someone “cost-effective,” which could be Gonzales, Miranda, Moore, or someone else. Remember that this is a team that used 17 different starting pitchers last year, so the Tacoma-to-Seattle shuttle is always an option.
Dipoto claims the Mariners will be a good team if Hernandez can make 25 or more starts as he established in 2016. He had a 3.82 ERA that year, but his 4.63 FIP suggests he was quite fortunate. He’s projected for 28 starts this year by the FanGraphs depth charts, but with a 4.38 ERA. That would make him a league average starter.
Even with Fernandez getting 28 starts, the Mariners rotation is projected to be 20th in baseball. FanGraphs also projects the Mariners to be a .500 team, which puts them behind: The Astros (98-64), Indians (93-69), Yankees (91-71), Red Sox (91-71), Angels (88-74), and Blue Jays (84-78). Even with the Twins (81-81) in the American League. That leaves them seven games out of the second wild card spot.
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When it comes to projections, a difference of seven games is not insurmountable. You never know what will happen once the games start. One or more of the teams projected to be better than the Mariners could come back to them, and they could win more than expected. As of right now, though, even the 2016 version of Felix Hernandez isn’t enough to put the Mariners up there with the Astros, Indians, Yankees, or Red Sox.