Yankees minor league starting pitchers who will relieve in 2018

The Yankees know it takes a lot more relievers than starters to win a championship. And so to arm themselves for battle, they will convert these starting minor league pitchers to the Bronx bullpen.

The Yankees seemed to grasp the importance of the bullpen long ago. And the value of the bullpen has risen in direct proportion to the importance of pitch counts and injury concerns for starters.

That’s why the Cubs have gone out and signed every available reliever not named Anthony Swarzak, including Steve Cishek, Brandon Morrow, Dario Alvarez, Hector Rondon and Anthony Bass.

The Cubbies see this as the best path back to the World Series, and a dynasty run. The Royals followed a similar path in 2015, and now everyone has gotten the memo.

It’s why middle relievers have been among the first to find a warm reception in the Cold Stove season.

Catch-22

Most teams outside of North Chicago, however, will try to find the majority of their relievers in their minor league systems; that includes the Yankees. To that end, they will convert some of their best starters into relievers.

But therein lies the rub.

A team with the best starting staff still has the best chance of being the last team standing. Look at last year’s playoffs. Teams finished in order of how well each of their mid-season acquired starter did; Justin Verlander was the best of those, and the Astros won the World Series.

Yu Darvish, meanwhile, imploded in the WS, while Sonny Gray was the least impactful of all.

And so the Yankees ended up looking no worse than the third-best team in the playoffs, while the Dodgers have gone through the off-season chanting, “We’re number two, we’re number two!”

So there is a horizon line, a place where the best use of a pitcher as a starter or reliever meets.

The Yankees will need to see that line. Use a pitcher for one dominant inning, when he is capable of doing it for six, and you limit your club’s chances over the season.

But making a mistake the other way can be far more damaging. Once you let a guy start in the show, you probably have to give him three or four chances to make a real evaluation. And if he turns out to be an ersatz player, you have given away games you cannot now get back.

That can sink a season. The Yankees, though, have some additional concerns of their own for 2018.

He Has Indeed Been a Killer Bee

First is that RHP Dellin Betances might be on the downward side of his arc. Listen to what he said in December at the Holiday Food Drive, as reported by Pete Caldera at NJ.com:

“I feel I’m a lot better than what the numbers show,’’ said Betances, who pitched to a 5.59 ERA over his final 12 regular season games. “For me, I’m going to focus a lot on fastball command…that’s going to be huge this offseason,’’ said Betances, whose late-season troubles locating that pitch led to his non-status in October; he threw just four innings in the Yankees’ 12 postseason games, yielding two runs. “I’m taking it as I have to prove myself.’’

So are the Yankees.

Be Trade

Second is that Brian Cashman might part with a valuable reliever such as right-hander David Robertson as part of a trade for a front-line starter.

And last but far from least is that two of the Yankees best full-time minor league relievers from last year are gone: RHP Nick Rumbelow was traded to the Mariners, while fellow righty Jose Mesa was picked off of waivers by Baltimore.

All of this will drive several Yankees decisions for 2018.

One, they will add at least one more starter between now and the trading deadline. Those six—Severino, Tanaka-time, Gray, Sabathia, Montgomery, Player To Be Named Later—will hopefully get the majority of the starts this year.

Two, they will try to get most of the remaining starts from mid-level pitchers Luis Cessa, and Chad Green, whom they hope will not melt down. Finally, they will trust only their most advanced pitchers to get a big league tryout this season.

That takes a lot of statistical analysis, foresight, and guesswork. LHP Justus Sheffield is a lock to remain a starter, for instance. But he might be the only one. Verdicts on the rest are below, using my foresight and guesswork.

Promises, Promises

We’ll start with up-and-coming pitchers who might see the majors but seem too far away. As a note, the numbers next to each pitcher are their final ones from last season (ERA/WHIP/Innings Pitched).

RHP Freicer Perez (2.84/1.14/123) is as promising as any pitcher in the system, for example.

But he spent his entire 2017 campaign at Low-A Charleston. One of the values of a deep system is that you don’t have to rush anybody and so Perez will rise higher on the Yankees’ radar this year, but it is doubtful he wears the pinstripes in 2018.

Apparently that means RHP’s Juan De Paula (2.90/1.08/62) and Rony Garcia (2.50/1.06/76) are far, far away, and don’t even think about Jonathan Loaisiga (1.38/0.61/33).

RHP Brian Keller (3.13/1.14/144) is on the bubble for this year, but with this many arms, the verdict here is that he logs no competitive innings for the Yanks in 2018.

And some pitchers are even farther away than that. RHP Nestor Cortes might have used his considerable off-speed repertoire to control the middles innings in New York, but he plays for Baltimore now.

One notable name has the opposite problem. RHP Domingo German already logged innings out of the bullpen for the Yankees last season–14.1 to be exact–so projecting him here seems redundant. The same is true for Giovanny Gallegos, another right-hander.

Now on to the pitchers you will see but have not yet. And we’ll start with a most unlikely one.

Is He More Than Just a Fastball?

Next up is Domingo Acevedo (3.25/1.20/133), who will be a big-time factor in the Yankees bullpen this season. I thought he would get some innings last September, but that deep system destroyed my prediction.

However, Acevedo continued to improve his command and now commands the Yankees’ attention.

He finished with strong indicators for future success as not only were his ERA/WHIP solid for a still developing pitcher, but also his strikeout to walk ratio was perhaps more than encouraging (142/34).

Those were balanced with some discouraging signs, at least for 2018. Acevedo started the season at High-A Tampa and quickly advanced to Triple-A Scranton Wilkes/Barre…and was just as quickly returned to Double-A Trenton.

And that’s because, In his two-game tryout in Pennsylvania, Domingo ended with a 4.38 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, as well as a flat SO/BB ratio with eight of each. That only increased the Yankees real concerns that this big 6’7″ man won’t be able to repeat his delivery consistently.

Timing is the real key here, though.

If this were 2016 or ’17, Acevedo would probably get another full year in the minors. But not in 2018, and not with his power arm. It’s a resource too valuable to wait on.

A Baseball Tradition

This is not meant to consign him to reliever status ad infinitum. Instead, it means he could follow in the footsteps of many excellent starters by learning how to pitch at the big league level a few innings at a time.

For instance, here is a piece by an Orioles fan, Jeff Long, writing for SB Nation back in 2014. He is speaking about Dellin Betances, but the comments are applicable here:

Several young pitchers are making their names as relievers this season despite being a top prospect because of their potential as a starter. Even Mariano Rivera was once a starter.  Zach Britton, Wade Davis, Dellin Betances, Brett Cecil, Randall Delgado; these are just some of the names that once lived on prospect lists before ultimately finding homes in the bullpen.

And, if he is successful out of the Yankees pen, he will get more chances to prove himself a starter.

I will be in Spring Training and am sure to see Domingo get a chance to start a few games. If he can keep the command he showed in the final two months of last year; he might put himself in the Justus Sheffield category.

But the fact that his best pitch by far is still his fastball probably means he spends his time in the Bronx this year working out the pen.

One You Might Not Know

There he might be joined by RHP Taylor Widener (3.39/1.15/119), although for entirely different reasons.

Widener already projects as a reliever; that, however, could accelerate his move to the Bronx. For instance, even though he spent the entire regular season at High-A Tampa, he was elevated to Trenton for the postseason.

The move seems to have worked out well.

Due to a late official scoring change, the Yankees’ No. 16 prospect didn’t initially realize that he combined with No. 5 prospect Justus Sheffield on a no-hitter as Trenton blanked Binghamton, 2-0, on Friday in Game 3 of the best-of-5 Eastern League semifinals at ARM & HAMMER Park. Widener struck Matt Oberste for the final out, securing the fifth no-hitter in Eastern League playoff history and first since Bill Pulsipher pitched one for Binghamton against Harrisburg in the 1994 Championship Series.

Taylor can split the Yankees need perfectly. He seems capable of handling at least some middle innings work, which would allow pitchers with more upside time to finish developing. Think of it as the Domingo German plan.

That was easy. From here on out, it gets a lot more difficult. And that means I will hear from you in the comments section.

A Paper Tiger

RHP Dillon Tate (2.81/1.14/83) is on paper one of the best Yankees’ pitching prospects. Here’s a scouting report from the end of last season.

Tate may be older than either Shef or Acevedo at the same level, but he’s also a better prospect. While he does not strike out as many as either player, his control is more advanced. Tate’s numbers at Tampa—58 innings pitched, 48 hits, 46 strikeouts, 2.62 ERA, and WHIP of 1.08—are better than Acevedo’s when he was there. Remember he was once called the best arm in his draft class. And, he seems to be learning how to pitch deep into games, getting into the seventh inning or later in five of his last ten games. That’s a skill that some pitchers never learn at any age.

Unfortunately, his resolve is also reportedly paper thin. This from a different scout via Randy Miller at NJ.com:

“He throws hard, but he has no bulldog in him. None. If you get to the big leagues and you’re pitching in Yankee Stadium in that American League East against Boston and Boston and Toronto and you’ve got that soft mentality … I might be afraid for you.”

Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid

This presents an interesting conundrum. Tate has pitched with a chip on his shoulder with excellent results. But anger without real resolve can dissipate after surrendering a big home run in Beantown.

As the scout said, that takes a bit of bulldog.

Did Tate lose that while he floundered in Texas, and has now regained it? Or is he pushing to prove himself but won’t care once he makes the majors? Only Dillon knows.

And that includes the Yankees. Accordingly, they are unlikely to want to find out by letting him start a few games in July.

In fact, if Dillon wants to be the new Marshall of the pen, he is going to have to show his determination both in Spring Training and for the first couple of months at Triple-A. That will earn him a chance to work out of the Yankees bullpen for the remainder of the season.

Meanwhile, Albert Abreu might have already gone past him.

Start Slow, Finish Fast

RHP Albert Abreu (3.38/1.18) was injured for most of last year, and so pitched a total of 53 innings, and none of those above High-A. That should have put him on the no-fly list for this year, but the Yankees have shown they have more advanced plans for Abreu.

And for the 2018 season.

They did that when they pulled Tate from the Arizona Fall League and inserted Abreu. That move paid off as Albert shined in the desert, solidifying the Yankees projections.

Here is just a part of Sam Dykstra’s write-up for MiLB.com after Abreu won Pitcher of the Week honors with the Scottsdale Scorpions:

Abreu, the No. 7 prospect in the Yankees’ system, made one start for Scottsdale last week and made it count. The 22-year-old right-hander struck out eight and allowed just two hits and two walks over five scoreless innings in a 10-1 win at Glendale on Tuesday. His eight K’s were the most by an AFL pitcher last week, and his five scoreless frames were only matched by Max Fried, Zach Jemiola and T.J. Zeuch. The Dominican Republic native has made two Fall League starts, giving up just one run on six hits and three walks over 10 innings. His 11 strikeouts trail only Fried (18) and fellow Yankees prospect Justus Sheffield (15) for the league lead, though both of those southpaws have made three starts.

Closer, but not a Closer

That sounds very promising. And it needs to be because the move also indicated that Abreu is closer to the majors than Tate.

He could be so close he leaves camp with the big league club, and with a job as a middle reliever. If Betances cannot regain his old form, and Robertson ends up the price for a starter, Abreu could end up pitching some very important innings in 2018.

But of course, we will finish with the most significant question mark of them all: Chance Adams.

If You See the Answer, Now’s the Time to Say

After a year of promising speculation yet no big league appearances, Chance Adams (2.45/1.08/150) remains a pitching enigma.

For instance, here are two articles from Pinstripe Alley. The first was written in November while the second appeared just a few days ago. Remember as you read that Adams pitched not a single inning during the interim.

There’s no question, though, as to whether Adams will get a chance next year. After posting those results he will have an outside chance at making the club in spring, albeit more likely after the Super Two deadline. The expectations aren’t astronomical—Craig Goldstein of BP describes him as having third starter potential, but every single team needs a third starter. Not everyone can be a Severino, and that’s fine, but with other big arms likely out the door, having an Adams could be a big part of their starting equation in what is now a year of serious contention.

After parts of three seasons in the Yankees organization, Adams seems poised to make his major-league debut at some point in the 2018 campaign, with many people believing he’s destined for a spot in the rotation. Sadly, I don’t consider myself part of that group. Adams has some talent, and I think he’ll see time in the big leagues in 2018, but his repertoire and history suggest a bullpen role over a starting spot.

Oh Vey

That is not meant to pick on PA. I could have quoted two of my articles from the same times with the same change of opinion. But then I would be quoting myself about Chance Adams for this current report based on previous articles of mine about Chance Adams, and no one wants that.

Not even Robert Zemeckis.

The point is that no one can seem to predict precisely what Adams will be and there are only questions coming into Spring Training.

For instance, if Adams has the same results in Spring Training as he did all of last year, but shows the same command and control, will he even get an opportunity to pitch for the Yankees? Even out of the pen?

The Yankees would likely give a begrudging yes.

Because, by not trading him during the off-season, they gave scouts time to dig deep into the data. That’s why he is ranked lower this year by MLB.com (75) than last (53). And more telling is that they project him only as high as a number three, at best:

Adams worked at 92-94 mph with his fastball as a Dallas Baptist reliever, but now sits at 94 as a pro starter. His heater lacks life so he has to command it well to succeed and usually does. His slider has gotten faster and tighter in pro ball, and it’s now a plus pitch in the mid-80s. The key for Adams to reaching his upside as a No. 3 starter will be refining his changeup into a solid third offering. He also has a curveball that’s his fourth-best pitch yet still qualifies as average.

Will Adams Wear Pinstripes in 2018?

The best way the Yankees can re-establish his value at this point is to let him pitch in the majors. And the best way to do that is out of the pen. That way he can be brought in for match-ups that overwhelmingly favor him, and show his best stuff.

I’m not sure he ever suits up for the Yankees. But if he does, it will be because he can dominate big league hitters. And that would be an excellent sign for the Yankees in 2018.

If even two of these men become great relievers, the Yankees odds of success go way up. Acevedo and Abreu seem like locks; Yankees fans will be cheering them on sooner rather than later. Tate will join them if he can keep his aggressive attitude.

Next: Howard Cosell: The Conscience of Major League Baseball

Adams, however, is becoming trade bait more and more every day.

But that won’t matter if the double AA’s arrive. They will join Aroldis Chapman, and hopefully, Robertson and Betances, to form the kind of super pen that wins championships.

And a chance to become starters next year.