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Not a minor Phillies’ matter

By Tal Venada |
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 05: Starting pitcher Ben Lively
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 05: Starting pitcher Ben Lively
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Will Lively open the season with the Phillies or the IronPigs? Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images.
Will Lively open the season with the Phillies or the IronPigs? Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. /

Regarding the fate of the extra Phillies’ starters during and after spring training, general manager Matt Klentak will assign them to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs or the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils, but the competition won’t end there.

Backup plan:

While the Philadelphia Phillies rotation opens 2018, the moundsmen getting more seasoning with the Allentown affiliate will be working on their shortcomings to earn another shot at the top level. Easier said than done!

IN OTHER WORDS: “There are only two ways to establish competitive advantage: do things better than others or do them differently.” – Karl Albrecht

As a baseball pops the catcher’s mitt in mid-February, the pitching market may not be complete after camp opens. And Klentak could have an opportunity for a bargain, but his strategy for the five-man staff doesn’t include such luck.

No, the GM is counting on a stronger offense and bullpen to compensate for a weak rotation. In other words, the red pinstripes can be competitive with Aaron Nola, two six-frame arms and two five-inning hurlers. Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez, at least, have decent MLB experience.

The red and white have two Zach Eflins: a healthy one with excellent stats and an injured one with three consecutive debacles leading to a disabled-list stint. And until Thomas Eshelman impresses management by early June, Ben Lively, Nick Pivetta and Jake Thompson will vie for the five slot on the Phils’ starting staff.

Eshelman will be in Lehigh Valley’s rotation, and two of the other spots will go to Lively, Pivetta or Thompson. Also, Mark Leiter and Jose Taveras will work every fifth day. And unless Leiter is the long man, Drew Anderson and Enyel De Los Santos will return to Reading through May’s end.

This week on the Internet, Phillies fans were considering the organizational moundsmen for the four openings after Nola. One posted Eickhoff, Lively and Thompson are the best of the bunch, but Lively and Thompson are fifth starters and will not improve.

Chiming in, another remarked Velasquez, Pivetta, Eflin, and Leiter had been bad in 2017. And he decided his statement was not wrong, not an opinion, and not open to debate. Well, if you look at Eflin’s totals and remember his last three games, you might have forgotten his relatively quick trip thereafter to the DL.

Will Pivetta have to earn another shot at the majors with the IronPigs? Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images.
Will Pivetta have to earn another shot at the majors with the IronPigs? Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

Six arms:

For the first two months, Eshelman must prove he deserves a shot with the hometown nine: Klentak won’t burn a 40-man spot without an excellent reason. None so far! Additionally, the right-hander won’t require roster protection until after the campaign.

Like Eshelman, Lively had produced solid numbers last summer for the Allentown affiliate and averaged roughly six frames per outing with the red pinstripes. He has bulldog tenacity but relies on control to succeed, and he might temporarily earn the fifth-slot on the Phils in April.

With a four-seam fastball at 94.5 mph, Pivetta will either barely earn a starting role with the parent club and have a couple’s months to stick. Or he’ll be with Lehigh Valley to work on his control and secondary pitches.

Triple-A stats:

  • Eshelman, 23.5: 18 Gms., 121 Inn., 10-3 and a 2.23 ERA.
  • Lively, almost 26: 16 Gms., 97 Inn., 7-5 and a 3.15 ERA.
  • Pivetta, almost 25: 5 Gms., 22 Inn., 5-0 and a 1.41 ERA.
  • Thompson, 24: 22 Gms., 118 1/3 Inn., 5-14 and a 5.25 ERA.
  • Leiter, almost 27: 7 Gms., 5 Starts, 30 Inn., 2-1 and a 4.20 ERA.
  • Taveras, 24: 7 Gms., 41 Inn., 3-1 and a 1.32 ERA.

In ’17, Thompson struggled to achieve 70 percent accuracy against MLB and MiLB hitters. Most likely, on Opening Day he’ll be on the five-man staff of the IronPigs.

Leiter has six pitches, but he needs to control at least three per start to have a chance in the majors. No small feat! He will probably be in the rotation or the long man at Triple-A.

While Lively, Pivetta and Thompson battle for the bottom rung of the starting five in Philly, Taveras will probably spend the year with Lehigh Valley. Klentak had quickly promoted him to Triple-A, and he earned 40-man protection because of his seven starts: 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA. The audition continues!

Thompson will probably open the season at Triple-A. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images.
Thompson will probably open the season at Triple-A. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. /

Second-half considerations:

Regarding righty Anderson, he’ll open ’18 with Reading due to his Double-A statistics for 21 starts. He went 9-4 with a 3.59 ERA for 107 2/3 innings. Stuff-wise, he has slightly above-average smoke (93.45 mph) to 95 mph tops, an inconsistent curveball and an underdeveloped changeup.

WORDS OF WISDOM: “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.” – Mark Twain

Acquired for Freddy Galvis, right-hander De Los Santos handled Double-A competition over 26 appearances (two in relief): 10-6 with a 3.78 ERA for 150 frames. Of course, Klentak will at least want two months to evaluate him as a Fightin Phil.

MiLB stats:

  • Anderson, almost 24: 21 AA Gms., 107 2/3 Inn., 9-4 and a 3.59 ERA.
  • De Los Santos, 22: 26 AA Gms., 24 Starts,150 Inn., 10-6 and a 3.78 ERA.
  • Sanchez, 19.5: 5 A+ Gms., 27 2/3 Inn., 0-4 and a 4.55 ERA.

As for righty Sixto Sanchez, he struggled in his five starts with the Single-A Advanced Clearwater Threshers. But even though he had a 4.55 ERA for 27 2/3 innings, his ERA estimators were 3.42 for FIP and 3.95 for xFIP. And he’s still just 19.

If a surprise happens after the trade deadline, who would the moundsman be? Anderson! However, injuries, disappointments, and unexpected events are what? Rare?

If he’s healthy, Eflin will slowly round into shape during spring training for the four slot in the Phils’ rotation. Photo by David Banks/Getty Images.
If he’s healthy, Eflin will slowly round into shape during spring training for the four slot in the Phils’ rotation. Photo by David Banks/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Eflin, 23.5:

  • Phillies: 11 Gms., 64 1/3 Inn., 1-5, a 6.16 ERA, a 6.10 FIP, a 5.21 xFIP, a 5.08 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
  • AAA: 8 Gms., 7 Starts, 43 1/3 Inn., 1-4, a 4.57 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 4.43 xFIP and a 1.45 WHIP.

Eshelman, 23.5:

  • AAA: 18 Gms., 121 Inn., 10-3, a 2.23 ERA, a 3.20 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP and a 0.94 WHIP.
  • AA: 5 Gms., 29 Inn., 3-0, a 3.10 ERA, a 5.02 FIP, a 3.57 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.

Lively, almost 26:

  • Phillies: 15 Gms., 88 2/3 Inn., 4-7, a 4.26 ERA, a 4.97 FIP, a 5.58 xFIP, a 5.27 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
  • AAA: 16 Gms., 97 Inn., 7-5, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, a 3.97 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP.

Pivetta, almost 25:

  • Phillies: 26 Gms., 133 Inn., 8-10, a 6.02 ERA, a 4.87 FIP, a 4.26 xFIP, a 4.32 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.51 WHIP.
  • AAA: 5 Gms., 22 Inn., 5-0, a 1.41 ERA, a 1.71 FIP, a 2.85 xFIP and a 0.84 WHIP.

More from Call to the Pen

Thompson, 24:

  • Phillies: 11 Gms., 8 Starts, 46 1/3 Inn., 3-2, a 3.88 ERA, a 5.92 FIP, a 5.54 xFIP, a 5.23 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.55 WHIP.
  • AAA: 22 Gms., 118 1/3 Inn., 5-14, a 5.25 ERA, a 4.40 FIP, a 4.59 xFIP and a 1.55 WHIP.

Leiter, almost 27:

  • Phillies: 27 Gms., 11 Starts, 90 2/3 Inn., 3-6, a 4.96 ERA, a 5.14 FIP, a 4.19 xFIP, a 4.14 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
  • AAA: 7 Gms., 5 Starts, 30 Inn., 2-1, a 4.20 ERA, a 3.67 FIP, a 2.49 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.

Anderson, almost 24:

  • Phillies: 2 Gms., 2 1/3 Inn., a 23.14 ERA, a 2.73 FIP, a 5.78 xFIP, a 4.99 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 3.00 WHIP.
  • AAA: 1 Gm., 6 2/3 Inn., 1-0, a 1.35 ERA, a 4.54 FIP, a 4.24 xFIP and a 1.05 WHIP.
  • AA: 21 Gms., 107 2/3 Inn., 9-4, a 3.59 ERA, a 4.53 FIP, a 4.52 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP.

Taveras, 24:

  • AAA: 7 Gms., 41 Inn., 3-1, a 1.32 ERA, a 4.22 FIP, a 4.40 xFIP, a 4.99 SIERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
  • AA: 2 Gms., 11 1/3 Inn., 0-1, a 3.97 ERA, a 3.84 FIP, a 3.34 xFIP and a 0.97 WHIP.
  • A+: 16 Gms., 102 Inn., 6-4, a 2.38 ERA, a 3.99 FIP, a 3.45 xFIP and a 1.07 WHIP.

Next: Phillies: New 2-slot starter

Double-A pitching:

  • De Los Santos, 22: 26 Gms., 24 Starts,150 Inn., 10-6, a 3.78 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 3.72 xFIP and a 1.19 WHIP.

Sanchez, 19.5:

  • A+: 5 Gms., 27 2/3 Inn., 0-4, a 4.55 ERA, a 3.42 FIP, a 3.95 xFIP and a 1.30 WHIP.
  • A: 13 Gms., 671/3 Inn., 5-3, a 2.41 ERA, a 2.35 FIP, a 2.93 xFIP and a 0.82 WHIP.
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