
How things have changed in MLB.
Things have changed, of course. It was almost 30 years ago that Bill James wrote about lineup construction in the 1988 Baseball Abstract. He acknowledged that most studies of lineup construction have shown that it makes very little difference. Teams won’t gain or lose a ton of runs by switching their players around in the order. Still, there were some ways to construct a lineup that would lead to small gains.
It took some time for managers to get on board, but we have seen continued progress lately. This article at MLB.com illustrates how MLB teams have come around on one of the key ideas in creating a good lineup: put your best players at or near the top of the order. Every move down one spot in the batting order results in a loss of roughly 18 plate appearances for that hitter. A team that bats their best hitter fourth is giving away more than 50 plate appearances compared to having that guy bat leadoff (per 162 games).
"1-2 punch: Teams putting best hitters up top" https://t.co/QCXjpjMkkm via @MLB I didn't realize the dramatic difference in the last few years. Terrific stuff from @AndrewSimonMLB
— Tangotiger 🍁 (@tangotiger) February 1, 2018
A team that bats a terrible hitter at the top of the order simply because he steals bases is giving that hitter about 120 more plate appearances than he would get if he batted eighth (again, per 162 games). The MLB.com article highlights some of the best non-traditional guys who hit out of the leadoff spot last year, including Brian Dozier and George Springer. These are sluggers who don’t fit the traditional leadoff hitter mold.
Of course, not every team is on board yet. While some teams have done a great job of getting one of their best hitters in the leadoff spot, others still struggle along with hitters who are well below average. With that in mind, this is a look at the best and worst production from the leadoff spot in 2017. The metric used to determine best and worst is weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which adjusts for league and ballpark. A 100 wRC+ is league average. A 125 wRC+ means 25 percent better than league average. A 75 wRC+ means 25 percent worse than league average.