MLB: The five best and worst teams at the leadoff spot in 2017

Most MLB teams are getting better at lineup construction, but a few still have plenty to learn.

MLB is a sport of traditions, from the national anthem to the ceremonial first pitch to “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” in the seventh inning and “Sweet Caroline” in the eighth (at Fenway Park). You get a hot dog, a soft drink or a beer, maybe some peanuts or popcorn. Old school fans track the action in a scorebook while kids look for vendors selling cotton candy.

There have been traditions on the field as well. The best athlete played shortstop or center field. The big, lumbering guys played first base or a corner outfield spot. The second baseman was the scrappy guy with the dirtiest uniform. The third baseman could block a ball with his chest, then pick it up and throw the runner out.

When it came time to bat, for many decades the baseball lineup was traditionally constructed. The leadoff hitter was a fast guy who could steal bases. The second spot went to a “bat handler” who could take pitches, bunt, and execute a hit-and-run. The third spot was the best hitter on the team, as the great Babe Ruth.

The lineup continued with the big home run hitter batting fourth and another power hitter batting fifth. The sixth spot often went to a second leadoff type hitter, who could get on base in front of the bottom of the order. The seventh spot was for someone who wasn’t good enough to bat higher but better than the non-pitcher who would bat eighth, which was often the catcher.

That’s how it was, that’s what managers did for the most part. Batting average was king, while on-base percentage and slugging percentage were not even acknowledged by the casual baseball fan. If a leadoff guy stole 50 bases, it didn’t seem to matter that his on-base percentage was below .300.

How things have changed in MLB.

Things have changed, of course. It was almost 30 years ago that Bill James wrote about lineup construction in the 1988 Baseball Abstract. He acknowledged that most studies of lineup construction have shown that it makes very little difference. Teams won’t gain or lose a ton of runs by switching their players around in the order. Still, there were some ways to construct a lineup that would lead to small gains.

It took some time for managers to get on board, but we have seen continued progress lately. This article at MLB.com illustrates how MLB teams have come around on one of the key ideas in creating a good lineup: put your best players at or near the top of the order. Every move down one spot in the batting order results in a loss of roughly 18 plate appearances for that hitter. A team that bats their best hitter fourth is giving away more than 50 plate appearances compared to having that guy bat leadoff (per 162 games).

A team that bats a terrible hitter at the top of the order simply because he steals bases is giving that hitter about 120 more plate appearances than he would get if he batted eighth (again, per 162 games). The MLB.com article highlights some of the best non-traditional guys who hit out of the leadoff spot last year, including Brian Dozier and George Springer. These are sluggers who don’t fit the traditional leadoff hitter mold.

Of course, not every team is on board yet. While some teams have done a great job of getting one of their best hitters in the leadoff spot, others still struggle along with hitters who are well below average. With that in mind, this is a look at the best and worst production from the leadoff spot in 2017. The metric used to determine best and worst is weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which adjusts for league and ballpark. A 100 wRC+ is league average. A 125 wRC+ means 25 percent better than league average. A 75 wRC+ means 25 percent worse than league average.

Best Production from the Leadoff Spot

1. Houston Astros (141 wRC+)—George Springer (82% of leadoff PA)

Springer got the bulk of the plate appearances in the leadoff spot for the Astros despite stealing just five bases in 12 attempts. Over the last two seasons, he’s stolen successfully only 14 times in 31 attempts. He should probably just stop stealing altogether. As a team, the Astros had nine steals out of their leadoff hitters, which ranked 27^th in baseball. In most any era from the past, Springer would be a middle-of-the-order hitter.

1. Colorado Rockies (141 wRC+)—Charlie Blackmon (95% of leadoff PA)

Charlie Blackmon has morphed into an offensive beast over the last few years. In his first two full seasons in 2014 and 2015, he combined for 36 homers and 71 steals while being right around league average as a hitter. Over the last two years, he’s hit 66 homers and stole 31 bases, while being much better than league average. Last year, he hit 37 homers and had 104 RBI, which is the most runs driven in ever by a leadoff hitter.

1. Minnesota Twins (128 wRC+)—Brian Dozier (92% of leadoff PA)

Dozier has averaged almost 27 home runs per 150 games played in his career, which is tremendous power for a second baseman. Despite his home run pop, he’s batted first or second in the lineup 80 percent of the time. By contrast, Jeff Kent averaged almost 25 home runs per 150 games played and hit cleanup 61 percent of the time.

1. New York Mets (125 wRC+)—Michael Conforto (42% of leadoff PA)

One of the few things that went right for the Mets in their 70-92 season was Michael Conforto, at least until he was injured and missed the last five weeks of the season. Conforto was the team’s best hitter. He led the team in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and wRC+. In a traditional lineup, he would probably bat third, but 61 percent of his plate appearances came in the leadoff spot. With Conforto likely being out until early May this year, it looks like Brandon Nimmo will be the leadoff man to start the season.

1. St. Louis Cardinals (118 wRC+)—Matt Carpenter (51% of leadoff PA)

The leadoff hitters for the Cardinals combined to steal just eight bases, which was 28^th in baseball. Matt Carpenter only had one of those steals, but he had a .418 OBP out of the leadoff spot that more than made up for it. Dexter Fowler had the second-most plate appearances out of the leadoff spot for the Cardinals, but his .308 OBP and 85 wRC+ was not very useful.

The five teams with the most production out of the leadoff spot averaged just 12 steals, but had a .373 OBP and scored an average of 128 runs. The five teams with the least production out of the leadoff spot averaged 31 steals, had a .298 OBP and scored an average of just 98 runs.

Not an MLB leadoff man

1. Kansas City Royals (69 wRC+)—Whit Merrifield (71% of leadoff PA)

Merrifield had the most plate appearances out of the leadoff spot, but it was a longtime Royal who was more responsible for the team’s near-bottom finish in wRC+. Merrifield had an 89 wRC+ while batting leadoff. It was the veteran Alcides Escobar who inflicted the most damage from the top spot by hitting .176/.188/.204 in 115 PA as the leadoff hitter.

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Despite being the second-worst hitter in MLB last season, Escobar was re-signed by the Royals in the offseason. If there’s a bright side to this news, it’s that Ned Yost has slowly been learning over the last two years and has been decreasing Escobar’s time in the leadoff spot. In 2015, Escobar batted leadoff in 91 percent of his plate appearances. That number dropped to 54 percent in 2016 and just 18 percent last year. If Yost has truly learned his lesson, Escobar won’t bat leadoff at all in 2018.

1. Cincinnati Reds (66 wRC+)—Billy Hamilton (82% of leadoff PA)

No team had more stolen bases out of the leadoff spot than the Cincinnati Reds, primarily because of the speedy Billy Hamilton. Unfortunately, no team had worse production out of the leadoff spot, mainly because the on-base averse Billy Hamilton. Hamilton stole 59 bases but had a .299 OBP.

Next: Brian Dozier speaks out against rule changes

Only six players with enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title had a worse wRC+ than Hamilton’s 66 and one of those was Jose Peraza, who had the second-most plate appearances in the leadoff spot for the Reds. If manager Bryan Price bats Hamilton first and Peraza second next year, Joey Votto should go on strike. Actually, if Hamilton remains at the top of the lineup, Votto should go on strike anyway.