Posey’s Posse
San Francisco Giants
MLB 2017: 64-98, -137 run differential, 5th in NL West
With a 64-98 mark, the Giants finished tied with the Detroit Tigers for the worst record in baseball in 2017. It was their worst season since they went 62-100 in 1985. Their offense was the main culprit, with an 84 wRC+, meaning they were 16 percent below average after adjusting for league and ballpark effects. The Giants finished last in baseball in home runs, and it wasn’t that close. They had 23 fewer than the next-worst team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. They also finished second-to-last in runs scored.
They made two moves in the offseason to help the offense. In December, they traded for third baseman Evan Longoria. Longoria is coming off the worst offensive season of his career, but the 20 home runs he hit last year would have led the Giants. He’s projected to be better this year than last, with a .267/.324/.458 line and 24 home runs, according to the FanGraphs Depth Charts. That hitting line and solid defense at third base would be worth three Wins Above Replacement (WAR, per FanGraphs).
Three wins may not seem like a significant improvement but the Giants third basemen last year were the worst in baseball. Eduardo Nunez provided positive value before being traded to the Red Sox, but Pablo Sandoval was a gigantic vortex of suck in the 37 games he played at the hot corner. The 10 players who had at least one game at third base for the Giants last year combined to be almost two wins below replacement level.
The second big move the Giants made was trading for Andrew McCutchen, who is in the final year of a team-friendly six-year, $51.5 million contract. He’s due to make $14.75 million this year, which is still a reasonable price for Cutch. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the season. McCutchen had a bounce-back year in 2017. After struggling through a 0.6 WAR season in 2016, he was worth 3.7 WAR last year. He’s projected to be a 2.8 WAR player this season.
Like Longoria, McCutchen is looking to upgrade a position that finished below replacement level in 2017. He’ll be in right field, with Hunter Pence moving to left. Pence is coming off the worst season of his career but is projected to bounce back. Of course, he’s never played an inning of left field in his big league career, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the spot.
With the additions of McCutchen and Longoria, healthy seasons from Madison Bumgarner and Mark Melancon, and the continued greatness of Buster Posey, the Giants could be contenders. As things stand, they look like an 80-85 win team. The division leaders in the National League are likely to be repeats of last year: the Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers. That leaves the Giants battling for a wild card spot with the Cardinals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies.