Felix and Friends
Seattle Mariners
MLB 2017: 78-84, -22 run differential, 3rd in AL West
Despite what Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto thinks, it’s likely the Mariners will need more than a healthy Felix Hernandez to be a good team, although getting 25-30 average or better starts out of Hernandez would help the cause. This is a team that used 17 different starting pitchers last year because of injuries and ineffectiveness. They’d like to cut that number down to the single digits this season.
Felix Hernandez is projected to be better than he’s been in each of the last two years, but nowhere near the ace he once was. The team’s new ace is James Paxton, a big lefty from Canada who has the talent to be an upper-tier starting pitcher but hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy for a full season. The Mariners will need 150-175 innings out of him to be contenders.
The offense will revolve around the big three of Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager, with Dee Gordon and Jean Segura setting the table at the top of the lineup. Right fielder Mitch Haniger hit .282/.352/.491 last year but was limited to 96 games. Catcher Mike Zunino is coming off his best season, but it came with a .355 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), which is 80 points higher than his career mark.
If Haniger and Zunino play as well as they did last year, and the starting pitching comes through, this team can be right in the mix for the second wild card spot. That’s their ceiling, though. They won’t compete with the Indians, Astros, Red Sox and Yankees, who comprise the top tier of teams in the AL. They’re in the tier of MLB teams who could win 80-85 wins, which makes them contenders these days.