Josh’s Jokers
Toronto Blue Jays
MLB 2017: 76-86, -91 run differential, 4th in AL East
The Blue Jays are a team with a wide range of outcomes. Health will be a big factor. Their best player, Josh Donaldson, missed almost a quarter of the 2017 season but was still a five-win player because he was so good when he was on the field. A bigger problem was the continued injury woes of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and second baseman Devon Travis, who combined to play just 116 games. Good health from this duo could provide 3-4 more wins than last year.
On the mound, the Blue Jays need a full, healthy season from Aaron Sanchez to go with Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, and whoever takes control of the number five spot in the rotation. Stroman is the staff ace. He’s not on the Chris Sale/Corey Kluber tier but fits in with Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino, Chris Archer, and some of the other top starting pitchers in the AL.
One of the biggest surprises in baseball last year was the 38-homer, 90-RBI, .270/.355/.529 season by Justin Smoak. He won’t repeat this performance, but could still be a 30-HR, 90-RBI guy. Also contributing to the offense this year will be new additions Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson. Grichuk is a consistent .480 slugging percentage guy who struggles to get on base. His career on-base percentage is just .297.
At 37 years old, Granderson will be the left-handed hitting part of a platoon, with Steve Pearce handling things from the right side of the plate. In his career, Granderson has been 28 percent better than average against right-handed pitching and Pearce has been 26 percent better than average against left-handed pitching. They should form an excellent combination for the Blue Jays.
If things go right, this MLB team could be in the 85-win range and contend for a wild card spot. There’s enough talent here for them to contend. On the other hand, if injuries hit again, they could be out of it in July and put free-agent-to-be Josh Donaldson on the trading block.