Five under .500 teams from 2017 most likely to make MLB postseason

Who are the five MLB teams that finished below .500 last year that have the best chance to make the postseason this year?

With a little more than a week left in the slowest-moving MLB offseason ever, baseball fans finally got a little something to chew on with the recent Todd Frazier signing by the Mets. Unfortunately, much of the offseason has been a barren wasteland. Perhaps there will be a flurry of free agent signings in the week ahead. After all, there are plenty of good players still available, a veritable all-star squad of players.

With so many good players still on the market, some teams that finished below .500 last year could even make significant improvements. Others don’t have a chance. The Miami Marlins would likely need to sign Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez and Mike Moustakas just to be a .500 team. That’s not going to happen. They aren’t spending that kind of cash in free agency after trading much of their talent this offseason. You can cross the Marlins off the list of playoff contenders.

Other teams that face a significant uphill battle this year include the Padres, Tigers, Royals and White Sox. At least the Padres and White Sox have highly regarded farm systems. Baseball America has the Padres ranked third, and White Sox ranked fourth among the 30 MLB team. The Tigers rank 21^st, and the Royals are 29^th, only beating out the last place Mariners on the Baseball America list.

There’s another group of teams on the next tier above the aforementioned four who would need some serious fortune to sniff a playoff spot. The Reds, Braves, Athletics, Orioles, Phillies, and Mets are in the longshots category, although the Mets could jump up to the next tier if things come together for them.

Then there are the five MLB teams who finished below .500 last year that have the best chance of being playoff contenders this year. They all have flaws that prevent them from being top contenders, but they could still make some noise in 2018. We’ll go from least likely to most likely, starting with a team that had the worst record in the NL last year but added a couple of veteran bats in the MLB offseason.

Posey’s Posse

San Francisco Giants

MLB 2017: 64-98, -137 run differential, 5^th in NL West

With a 64-98 mark, the Giants finished tied with the Detroit Tigers for the worst record in baseball in 2017. It was their worst season since they went 62-100 in 1985. Their offense was the main culprit, with an 84 wRC+, meaning they were 16 percent below average after adjusting for league and ballpark effects. The Giants finished last in baseball in home runs, and it wasn’t that close. They had 23 fewer than the next-worst team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. They also finished second-to-last in runs scored.

They made two moves in the offseason to help the offense. In December, they traded for third baseman Evan Longoria. Longoria is coming off the worst offensive season of his career, but the 20 home runs he hit last year would have led the Giants. He’s projected to be better this year than last, with a .267/.324/.458 line and 24 home runs, according to the FanGraphs Depth Charts. That hitting line and solid defense at third base would be worth three Wins Above Replacement (WAR, per FanGraphs).

Three wins may not seem like a significant improvement but the Giants third basemen last year were the worst in baseball. Eduardo Nunez provided positive value before being traded to the Red Sox, but Pablo Sandoval was a gigantic vortex of suck in the 37 games he played at the hot corner. The 10 players who had at least one game at third base for the Giants last year combined to be almost two wins below replacement level.

The second big move the Giants made was trading for Andrew McCutchen, who is in the final year of a team-friendly six-year, $51.5 million contract. He’s due to make $14.75 million this year, which is still a reasonable price for Cutch. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the season. McCutchen had a bounce-back year in 2017. After struggling through a 0.6 WAR season in 2016, he was worth 3.7 WAR last year. He’s projected to be a 2.8 WAR player this season.

Like Longoria, McCutchen is looking to upgrade a position that finished below replacement level in 2017. He’ll be in right field, with Hunter Pence moving to left. Pence is coming off the worst season of his career but is projected to bounce back. Of course, he’s never played an inning of left field in his big league career, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the spot.

With the additions of McCutchen and Longoria, healthy seasons from Madison Bumgarner and Mark Melancon, and the continued greatness of Buster Posey, the Giants could be contenders. As things stand, they look like an 80-85 win team. The division leaders in the National League are likely to be repeats of last year: the Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers. That leaves the Giants battling for a wild card spot with the Cardinals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies.

Beltre’s Boys

Texas Rangers

MLB 2017: 78-84, -17 run differential, 4^th in AL West

With four dominant teams in the American League, and the Rangers not being one of them, it looks like a wild card spot is their most likely option for making the playoffs. The Astros, Indians, Yankees and Red Sox are the fearsome foursome, which leaves maybe a half-dozen teams battling for the second wild card spot. This group includes the Texas Rangers, who went 78-84 last year.

A full season from Adrian Beltre would help the team contend for a playoff spot. Beltre was limited to 94 games last year because of injuries. If he reaches his projection, he’ll be nearly a four-win player and move into 15^th place on the all-time list for career hits. He had his 3000^th hit last summer.

The Rangers are looking for a better season from Rougned Odor. He may have hit 30 home runs last year, but it was one of the least valuable 30-homer seasons ever. In fact, only Dante Bichette’s 1999 season was worse for a 30-homer guy. Odor had a .252 on-base percentage, which was the lowest in baseball among players who had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. The next lowest was Alcides Escobar, at .272.

Of course, the Rangers are usually able to score runs. In order to contend this year, they’ll need a patchwork starting rotation to prevent the other team from scoring runs, and that could be a big problem. Of the five pitchers currently slated to be in the rotation, only Cole Hamels looks like an above average pitcher. Martin Perez, Doug Fister, Matt Moore and Mike Minor have potential, but the team could use another good arm or two.

One possibility still out there is a reunion with Yu Darvish, who was traded by the Rangers to the Dodgers at last year’s trade deadline. They could bring him back as a free agent and add a few wins to their projected total this year. That would bump them up a few spots on this list.

Felix and Friends

Seattle Mariners

MLB 2017: 78-84, -22 run differential, 3^rd in AL West

Despite what Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto thinks, it’s likely the Mariners will need more than a healthy Felix Hernandez to be a good team, although getting 25-30 average or better starts out of Hernandez would help the cause. This is a team that used 17 different starting pitchers last year because of injuries and ineffectiveness. They’d like to cut that number down to the single digits this season.

Felix Hernandez is projected to be better than he’s been in each of the last two years, but nowhere near the ace he once was. The team’s new ace is James Paxton, a big lefty from Canada who has the talent to be an upper-tier starting pitcher but hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy for a full season. The Mariners will need 150-175 innings out of him to be contenders.

The offense will revolve around the big three of Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager, with Dee Gordon and Jean Segura setting the table at the top of the lineup. Right fielder Mitch Haniger hit .282/.352/.491 last year but was limited to 96 games. Catcher Mike Zunino is coming off his best season, but it came with a .355 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), which is 80 points higher than his career mark.

If Haniger and Zunino play as well as they did last year, and the starting pitching comes through, this team can be right in the mix for the second wild card spot. That’s their ceiling, though. They won’t compete with the Indians, Astros, Red Sox and Yankees, who comprise the top tier of teams in the AL. They’re in the tier of MLB teams who could win 80-85 wins, which makes them contenders these days.

Josh’s Jokers

Toronto Blue Jays

MLB 2017: 76-86, -91 run differential, 4^th in AL East

The Blue Jays are a team with a wide range of outcomes. Health will be a big factor. Their best player, Josh Donaldson, missed almost a quarter of the 2017 season but was still a five-win player because he was so good when he was on the field. A bigger problem was the continued injury woes of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and second baseman Devon Travis, who combined to play just 116 games. Good health from this duo could provide 3-4 more wins than last year.

On the mound, the Blue Jays need a full, healthy season from Aaron Sanchez to go with Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, and whoever takes control of the number five spot in the rotation. Stroman is the staff ace. He’s not on the Chris Sale/Corey Kluber tier but fits in with Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino, Chris Archer, and some of the other top starting pitchers in the AL.

One of the biggest surprises in baseball last year was the 38-homer, 90-RBI, .270/.355/.529 season by Justin Smoak. He won’t repeat this performance, but could still be a 30-HR, 90-RBI guy. Also contributing to the offense this year will be new additions Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson. Grichuk is a consistent .480 slugging percentage guy who struggles to get on base. His career on-base percentage is just .297.

At 37 years old, Granderson will be the left-handed hitting part of a platoon, with Steve Pearce handling things from the right side of the plate. In his career, Granderson has been 28 percent better than average against right-handed pitching and Pearce has been 26 percent better than average against left-handed pitching. They should form an excellent combination for the Blue Jays.

If things go right, this MLB team could be in the 85-win range and contend for a wild card spot. There’s enough talent here for them to contend. On the other hand, if injuries hit again, they could be out of it in July and put free-agent-to-be Josh Donaldson on the trading block.