One major free agent for 2019’s Phillies
While the Phillies count down the days before their returning warriors take the field in Clearwater, many fans are not happy with the spending of general manager Matt Klentak regarding free-agent starting pitchers.
Targeted selection:
Of three, one free agent tops the wish list for the ’19 Philadelphia Phillies: Manny Machado. And the basis for this decision is the team could challenge at that time for the divisional title, while this 162 is a stepping-stone toward contention.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Destiny is no matter of chance. It is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for; it is a thing to be achieved.” – William Jennings Bryan
Regarding Machado, the front office will bid competitively for the left-side infielder, unless they are enthusiastic after 2018’s performances of Maikel Franco, J.P. Crawford and/or Scott Kingery. And it will also depend on Machado’s stats for ’18 because he had a difficult first half of ’17: .230 with 18 homers and 47 RBIs.
As for agents, Scott Boras doesn’t represent Machado. Translation: Boras’ reputation is asking for the top dollar and waiting for the biggest offer: He currently has 20 unsigned players.
Financially, the Phils can ink Machado and will be nowhere near the luxury-tax threshold. In other words, they can acquire additional expensive pieces to remedy their shortcomings, although pitching could be the exception if the ace is 30 years-of-age or older.
Competition for the sure-handed defender won’t come from the Los Angeles Dodgers because their money will go to Clayton Kershaw. Meanwhile, their same-city rival will be keeping Mike Trout and couldn’t do that if they sign one of the superstars of the next class.
As for the Boston Red Sox, a successful inking of J.D. Martinez won’t leave room for another big-ticket addition. However, the New York Yankees are limiting their payroll to $197 million to reset their penalty percentage for 2019; otherwise, they’d pick up Yu Darvish.
On a Phillies site, one fan posted the organization should dump Franco and get Machado because the club would have Machado, Carlos Santana, and Rhys Hoskins to provide more than enough power. Unfortunately, his strategy was for 2018.
On the other hand, another believed the red pinstripes would add two free agents for 2019, but their proposals for Bryce Harper and Machado won’t be enough. Well, if management wants Machado, they will have a solid shot because the Yankees will only be able to sign Machado or Harper.
Other choices:
In ’19, Kershaw will be 31 if he opts out of his contract with two summers remaining. And since he’s making $33 million for the upcoming 162, he’ll probably receive $40 million apiece for five seasons or $250 million for seven years.
Representing the southpaw is agent J.D. Smart of Excel Sports Management. Yes, the same representative negotiated the lefty’s 2014 deal for $215 million over seven summers. Bingo!
If the face of the franchise is a free agent, a team will get under the luxury-tax threshold of $197 million now for him to re-up next year. And, then, the front office can exceed that limit in 2019.
As for Harper, he’s 25, and a 10-campaign offer will be Boras’ goal, but the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles still have their monetary dispute over television rights and revenue. However, Boras engineered the agreement with half of the $210 million deferred with Washington for Max Scherzer. A wrinkle!
Boras may have New York (AL) and Philadelphia in the bidding for the youngest star of the three. On the other hand, Boras and the Nationals have a good working relationship.
For the division-rival Nats, losing Harper will affect their offense because his 2017 numbers were .319 with 29 home runs and 87 RBIs. How do they replace his production? Ergo, expect a fight to retain Harper!
Manny being Manny:
Baltimore owner Peter Angelos does not want a division rival to acquire Machado or another club to play him for four months and flip him to the Yankees near the trade deadline. So, the Orioles will probably move him in late July for a smaller return because Machado won’t consider an extension with a new team either.
The young superstar will primarily be a two-month rental and is too close to free agency to re-up. The O’s should have extended his contract two years ago to avoid this situation. Checkmate!
In 2012, Baltimore called up Machado near mid-August, but they moved him to third base because they had a regular shortstop through ’17: Hardy. Therefore, Machado will return to his preferred position.
Because of the Freddy Galvis swap, Crawford will have two months to claim the shortstop job before Kingery’s promotion. And Crawford’s offensive production will matter for ’19. But if he hits as he did for the second half with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, he could switch to third if the hometown nine sign Machado.
For Franco, Klentak is giving him another 162 to live up to his potential or something satisfactory. He needs to bat .260 with 25 bombs and 80 RBIs to keep his spot at the hot corner. But keep in mind, Machado would come here as a shortstop, and Crawford, Franco or Kingery could be the regular third sacker.
The wild card here is Kingery and his offensive impact. But if he makes a splash like Nick Williams or Hoskins, he could earn the third base job by outdoing Franco and Crawford.
The third head of the dragon:
Dan Lozano, Machado’s agent, will want a fair offer dollarwise and lengthwise, but the representative won’t put his star or franchises in an uncomfortable position. No, he won’t take the first proposal, but the first excellent one.
As for the monetary value, Machado will be 26, and a 10-summer contract is entirely feasible. Additionally, $30 million per campaign would bring the total to $300 million. Yes, the Phillies will take that shot.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “The law of harvest is to reap more than you sow. Sow an act, and you reap a habit. Sow a habit and you reap a character. Sow a character and you reap a destiny.” – James Allen
To reiterate the competition, the Angels will use their millions for Trout, and the Dodgers’ money will find its way to Kershaw. Shortly, the Red Sox will be finalizing a long-term commitment with Martinez.
While the Orioles have revealed they aren’t willing to outbid even the Yanks for Machado, the O’s won’t top the Phils’ offer either. But New York (AL) will compete with the red pinstripes for Machado and Harper if the latter is also a target for Klentak. Could be!
Strategy-wise, the GM will be more comfortable signing Machado and will try for a preemptive strike to catch our northern neighbor off-balance. And what could the middle of the order be in ’19? Hoskins, Santana, and Machado!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Plate-discipline comparison:
Phillies and MLB:
- Hoskins: 21.7 K% and 17.5 BB% with a .396 OBP.
- Santana: 14.1 K% and 13.2 BB% with a .363 OBP.
- Machado: 16.7 K% and 6.9 BB% with a .310 OBP.
- Harper: 20.1 K% and 13.8 BB% with a .413 OBP.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
MLB:
- Machado, 25.5: 156 Gms., 690 PA, a .259 Avg., a .310 OBP, a .471 SLG, a .213 ISO, a .265 BABIP, 33 HR, 95 RBI, a .782 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.
- Harper, 25: 111 Gms., 492 PA, a .319 Avg., a .413 OBP, a .595 SLG, a .276 ISO, a .356 BABIP, 29 HR, 87 RBI, a 1.008 OPS and a 4.8 fWAR.
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Phillies:
- Santana, almost 32: 154 Gms., 667 PA, a .259 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .455 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .274 BABIP, 23 HR, 79 RBI, an .818 OPS and a 3.0 fWAR.
- Franco, 25.5: 154 Gms., 623 PA, a .230 Avg., a .281 OBP, a .409 SLG, a .179 ISO, a .234 BABIP, 24 HR, 76 RBI, a .690 OPS and a -0.5 fWAR.
Hoskins, almost 25:
- Phillies: 50 Gms., 212 PA, a .259 Avg., a .396 OBP, a .618 SLG, a .359 ISO, a .241 BABIP, 18 HR, 48 RBI, a 1.014 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.
- AAA: 115 Gms., 425 PA, a .284 Avg., a .385 OBP, a .581 SLG, a .297 ISO, a .229 BABIP, 29 HR, 91 RBI, a .966 OPS and a 2.7 WARP.
Crawford, 23:
- Phillies: 23 Gms., 87 PA, a .214 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .300 SLG, a .086 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .656 OPS and a 0.2 fWAR.
- AAA: 127 Gms., 556 PA, a .243 Avg., a .351 OBP, a .405 SLG, a .162 ISO, a .275 BABIP, 15 HR, 63 RBI, a .756 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.
Next: Not a minor Phillies' matter
Kingery, 23.5:
- AAA: 63 Gms., 286 PA, a .294 Avg., a .337 OBP, a .449 SLG, a .155 ISO, a .348 BABIP, 8 HR, 21 RBI, a .786 OPS, 1.1 WARP, 10 SB, 2 CS and 6.8 Spd.
- AA: 69 Gms., 317 PA, a .313 Avg., a .379 OBP, a .608 SLG, a .295 ISO, a .324 BABIP, 18 HR, 44 RBI, a .987 OPS, 4.0 WARP, 19 SB, 3 CS and 8.7 Spd.
MLB pitching:
- Kershaw, almost 30: 27 Gms., 175 Inn., 18-4, a 2.31 ERA, a 3.07 FIP, a 2.84 xFIP, a 3.04 SIERA, a 4.6 fWAR and a 0.95 WHIP.