Top 10 MLB first basemen heading into the 2018 season
The 2018 MLB season is just around the corner, with Spring Training starting later this month. Here at Call to the Pen, we’ll take a look at the top players at each position. This time we’ll take a look at the top first basemen.
After looking at the current top 10 MLB catchers last week, we’ll now rank the top 10 first baseman heading into the 2018 season. First basemen carry a potent bat and powerful physique. If a team isn’t getting power production out of their first baseman, that’s usually a problem. However, first base is a deep position and one of the more difficult spots to rank. Much like how MLB Network ranks the top 10 players at each position before the season, we’ll do the same.
MLB Network has a couple of analysts talk about their top 10, along with fan voting that cranks out a top ten list. The show also uses a tool called the shredder to display the best of the best. The shredder takes a combination of baseball statistics and analytics when coming up with the top 10. And taken into account is both old school and new school numbers.
According to MLB Network’s shredder, it ranked the top 10 first basemen right now as follows:
- Joey Votto
- Freddie Freeman
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Anthony Rizzo
- Cody Bellinger
- Jose Abreu
- Edwin Encarnacion
- Brandon Belt
- Matt Carpenter
- Carlos Santana
How will the shredder’s list compare to CTTP’s top 10? Let’s take a look at which first basemen crack our top 10 heading into the 2018 season.
10. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
Just last season, Miguel Cabrera would have easily ranked top five on this list. And a few seasons ago, he would sit at No. 1. However, heading into the 2018 season, Cabrera barely squeezes into this top 10 list.
The 34-year-old remains on this list because of his career resume. Cabrera boasts quite the trophy case with two MVP awards, seven Silver Sluggers, four batting titles, 11 All-Star appearances, a triple crown and he won a World Series back in 2003 with the Florida Marlins.
But 2017 was easily the worst season of Cabrera’s career. It has many people wondering, could we be seeing the decline of one of the best player’s of this decade. It’s tough to write off a player after one season, especially a player like Cabrera. He could easily bounce-back in 2018 and prove that he remains in the discussion among the top first basemen.
Looking at last season, Cabrera posted a slash line of .249/.329/.399 with 16 home runs, 60 RBI, 50 runs and a -0.8 bWAR. He posted career lows in batting average, RBI, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS-plus.
If Cabrera’s 2018 season looks anything like his 2017 did, don’t expect him to rank anywhere near the top 10 next season.
9. Eric Hosmer – Free Agent
One of the best players left on the free agent market cracks our list at No. 9. Eric Hosmer, 28, like many other free agents that remain in search of a job, might have to settle for less than what he expected heading into the offseason.
Hosmer spent seven seasons with the Kansas City Royals before hitting free agency after the 2017 season. The first baseman left a lasting impact on his former team. Hosmer played a significant role in the Royals’ 2015 World Series title.
The left-hander also picked a great time to have the best season of his career. In 2017, Hosmer hit .318/.385/.498 with 25 home runs, 94 RBI, 98 runs scored and a 4.0 bWAR. He posted career highs in hits (192), batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS (.882), OPS+ (132) and walks (66).
Not only did Hosmer have a great season but he also played in all 162 of the Royals’ games. Throughout his career, Hosmer’s shown great durability. In five of his seven big league seasons, Hosmer’s played in at least 150 games.
Despite winning four MLB Gold Gloves in his career (including 2017), Hosmer’s defense is lacking. He sports a -8.0 dWAR for his career. His defensive play and the depth of the first base position has Hosmer low on this list.
Justin Smoak – Toronto Blue Jays
Since Justin Smoak entered MLB in 2010, high expectations surrounded him and many expected his power numbers to translate to the major leagues quickly. However, that wasn’t the case. In his first seven seasons in the league, Smoak never managed to hit more than 20 home runs in a season.
That all changed when 2017 came around. Smoak had a breakout year with the Toronto Blue Jays last season. His successful 2017 campaign moved him into the top 10 first basemen discussion and has him ranking No. 8 on this list.
Last season, Smoak owned a slash line of .270/.355/.529 with 38 home runs, 90 RBI, 85 runs and a 3.2 bWAR. Smoak saw career highs in almost every statistical category on the offensive side of the ball. His 2017 performance earned him his first All-Star game appearance.
His 38 home runs left him tied with Logan Morrison and Edwin Encarnacion for most home runs in the AL by a first baseman in 2017. He also carried a poor Blue Jays team for the majority of last season.
Can Smoak follow up his stellar 2017 with another great season in 2018? If so, he might find himself higher on this list come next year.
7. Edwin Encarnacion – Cleveland Indians
After an impressive year in 2016, Edwin Encarnacion decided to take his talents back to the United States by leaving the Toronto Blue Jays and signing with the Cleveland Indians. Although Encarnacion’s 2017 wasn’t as good as the year before, he still had another solid campaign.
Encarnacion only played 23 games at first base in 2017, so he barely qualifies to make this list. The Indians opted to use the 35-year-old as the DH for a majority of the season. Which was no surprise because Carlos Santana was apparently the better defensive option at first. And with the Indians addition of Yonder Alonso this offseason, Encarnacion may end up as a full-time DH in 2018.
However, he comes in at No. 7 on this list heading into 2018. Last season he hit .258/.377/.504 with 38 home runs, 107 RBI, 96 runs and a 2.8 bWAR. His 107 RBI led all AL first basemen. And for the sixth straight season, Encarnacion finished in the top 10 home run leaders.
Despite Encarnacion aging, his power doesn’t seem to be going away. With focusing just on offense next season, could his numbers be on the rise?
6. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers
With an unexpected stellar 2017 MLB season, Cody Bellinger finds himself at No. 6 on this list. Not too bad for a guy that was a 22-year-old rookie in 2017. Many didn’t believe that Bellinger would make a significant impact on the Dodgers last season. But the complete opposite happened.
The Dodgers didn’t call up Bellinger until May. But by the end of the season, Bellinger was arguably the MVP of the Dodgers 2017 season. When a shot at the big leagues came, he capitalized on his opportunity.
In his first big league season, Bellinger hit .267/.352/.581 with 39 home runs, 97 RBI, 87 runs and a bWAR of 4.2. And even without playing in April, Bellinger led all MLB first basemen in home runs.
Although Bellinger does strikeout quite a bit — his struggle was on display in the World Series. The Houston Astros’ pitching staff faced Bellinger 29 times in the World Series and struck him out 17 times. They only allowed him to reach base five times in the seven-game series.
With teams having more scouting reports and film on Bellinger, it’ll be interesting to see how he fairs in his sophomore season.
5. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs
Coming in at No. 5 on our list is one half of the Chicago Cubs’ duo Bryzzo (the nickname that combines Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant). Rizzo continues to shine in the Windy City and certainly carries himself as the face of the Cubs.
Rizzo played a considerable role in the Cubs ending their 108-year World Series drought in 2016. He hit .360/.484/.600 in the Fall Classic. Rizzo proved he lives for the big moment.
In 2017, Rizzo hit .273/.392/.507 with 32 home runs, 109 RBI, 99 runs scored and a 4.4 bWAR. It was his fourth straight season with at least 30 home runs and his third consecutive season with at least 100 RBI. Rizzo’s established consistency over the past few seasons.
Last season, while the Cubs were struggling, manager Joe Maddon decided to let Rizzo hit leadoff, despite him not fitting the typical leadoff hitter persona. Rizzo survived 14 games as the leadoff man and put up some of his best numbers in 2017 from that spot. That’s just a testament to how versatile Rizzo is for the Cubs.
4. Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox
Despite the Chicago White Sox being in full rebuild mode, Jose Abreu continues to smash the ball and comes in at No. 4 on this list. In his four seasons in MLB, Abreu’s proved to be one of the most consistent hitters in all of baseball.
Entering the league back in 2014, Abreu was a 27-year-old rookie out of Cuba. He proved that he belonged in the big leagues by having an outstanding season that ended in him taking home AL Rookie of the Year honors.
Abreu followed up his excellent rookie season with three more outstanding seasons. However, with the Chicago White Sox nowhere near contention, Abreu doesn’t get the attention that he deserves.
In 2017, Abreu hit .304/.354/.552 with 33 home runs, 102 RBI, 95 runs and a 4.7 bWAR. With 189 hits last season, Abreu finished second among all first basemen in that category. He racked up 343 total bases, which ranked him first in the AL. And he finished tied with Houston Astros’ first baseman Yuli Gurriel for first in doubles with 43.
The 31-year-old continues to produce, despite having minimal talent around him. And that success is why Abreu ranks so high on this list.
3. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves
We’ve now hit the most challenging part of the top 10 first basemen rankings. Any of these three players could fit at No.1, No. 2 or No. 3 because they are all that good. But on this list, coming in at No. 3 is Atlanta Braves’, Freddie Freeman.
Since his rookie season in 2011, Freeman has established himself as the best player on the Braves, taking over after Chipper Jones retired. The Braves were a playoff team when Freeman joined the squad. But over the past four seasons, the Braves haven’t come close to making it to the postseason.
Nevertheless, Freeman’s become one of the best players today’s game and he still gets the nod this high on the list, despite missing half of May and all of June in 2017. A hit by pitch fractured Freeman’s wrist.
Before the injury, Freeman was on pace for career highs in almost every offensive category. His 2017 stats include a slash line of .307/.403/.586 with 28 home runs, 71 RBI, 84 runs and a 4.5 bWAR.
At just 28 years old, Freeman’s numbers should jump up as he enters his prime. If that’s the case, he could sneak up to No. 1 by this time next season.
2. Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona Diamondbacks
Out of any player since 2010, Paul Goldschmidt might qualify as the best to not win an MVP award. With two second-place finishes and a third-place finish last season, Goldschmidt has to wonder how much more does he have to accomplish to win the award.
Having made five straight All-Star games, along with winning three Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers in that span, Goldschmidt is one of the top 10 players in all of baseball. Goldschmidt played a prominent role in getting the Arizona Diamondbacks back into the playoffs in 2017.
Last season, Goldschmidt hit .297/.404/.563 with 36 home runs, 120 RBI, 117 runs and a 5.8 bWAR. He led all first basemen in RBI and runs scored. And his totals in those two categories ranked him fourth in all of baseball.
At 30 years old, Goldschmidt will enter the final season of his contract in 2018. Although, the Diamondbacks do have a team option on him for 2019. But with the way Goldschmidt’s played throughout his career, the Diamondbacks need to make a smart decision and make sure he remains in Arizona for the rest of his career.
1. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
The most underrated MLB player award goes to Cincinnati Reds’ first baseman Joey Votto. Playing for one of the worst teams over the past few seasons has hurt the attention that Votto deserves.
Votto finished as MVP runner-up to Giancarlo Stanton last season. In his 11-season career, Votto’s made five All-Star teams, won a Gold Glove and won the 2010 NL MVP award.
In 2017, Votto hit .320/.454/.578 with 36 home runs, 100 RBI, 106 runs and a 7.5 bWAR. He led all first basemen in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS.
The 34-year-old had one of the best seasons of his career in 2017. He led all of baseball in on-base percentage, walks, and intentional walks. Every season, Votto reaches base at one of the best rates in baseball. Votto’s led the league in on-base percentage in six of the past eight seasons.
With the Reds in the middle of a rebuild, Votto won’t likely get to play much meaningful baseball over the next few seasons — which seems criminal for a player of his such talent. Votto won’t hit free agency until 2024, so it seems baseball fans will only get to see him play in October if a trade occurs.
Next: Top 10 MLB catchers heading into 2018
Agree or disagree with these rankings? Let us know what your top 10 MLB first basemen are in the comment section below.