Minnesota Twins: Ervin Santana has surgery, now what?!
Minnesota Twins fans have been eagerly awaiting news about the starting rotation for 2018. Tuesday, they got news, but certainly not the kind that was wanted.
The Minnesota Twins have been one of the lead players for a top free-agent starter this offseason, and they have been in on starting pitcher trade options as well. It’s more than clear – the Minnesota Twins want to improve their 2018 starting rotation.
Instead, on Tuesday came news about the rotation, but it was that the one arm that was assumed to be a constant, predictable piece of that 2018 rotation is now going to miss upwards of a month of the regular season as Ervin Santana had surgery that will keep him out 10-12 weeks.
Santana represented the one “sure” thing in the Minnesota Twins rotation for 2018. He was nearly certain to give the team 30 starts, 180 innings, a mid-3 ERA, and solid peripheral numbers, something he’s done his entire time in Minnesota – and really since he discovered his two-seam fastball and change to add to his devastating slider in 2013 while with the Royals.
While the Twins have guys who certainly have more upside in Jose Berrios and even Kyle Gibson, who finished 2017 with a second half line of a 3.76 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 22/70 BB/K over 76 2/3 innings, the sort of production the Twins have always thought he could give them in the middle of the rotation, they certainly aren’t sure bets to give innings in 2018.
So what do the Twins do now?!
We’ll take a look at a few options for the team, first in the free agent market, then in possible trade options, and finally internal.
Next: Sign the big one
Sign Yu Darvish
This would be the moment to break the stalemate on the market where it seems that Darvish is simply waiting on the Dodgers to free up money to sign him by making him a “Godfather” offer. Give him the fifth year at a rate that he cannot resist.
The Minnesota Twins have been in on Darvish all offseason, and they’re one team that has been consistent in his pursuit throughout the offseason. The team has a huge amount of money coming off the books after 2018 currently, and Santana’s injury nearly assures he won’t vest his $14 million option for 2019, so that’s more money free for next season.
The Twins could load a contract into the first few seasons of the deal, knowing that their young core of Byron Buxton, Berrios, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, and Miguel Sano (depending on the outcome of the current investigation against him) will begin getting “real” money in arbitration in 2020/2021.
Early payout for Darvish could appeal to him and lower the burden on the Twins if he’s not as productive later in the contract when he’s not paid as well.
He is the one pitcher on the market this offseason that offers a true “ace” option for the Minnesota Twins, and if they want to focus on just one arm, he would absolutely be that guy, so the money is the biggest issue, something the Twins have the financial freedom to work around the next few years while other teams in the running for Darvish will still have issues making work going forward.
Darvish seems to be the domino that will cause the rest of the pitching market to fall, but he’s also seeming to want to wait on Los Angeles to see if they can get under the luxury tax, so if he’s not wanting to make the move, what would be the Twins’ next move?
Next: Sign multiple lower targets
Sign multiple lesser free agent targets
If Darvish is not going to end up in the Twin Cities, rather than going after the “next” free agent option, the Minnesota Twins would be wise to target Lance Lynn as one arm that could give them consistent innings and then pursue one or more lesser free agent arms still available.
Lynn returned in 2017 from a year off from Tommy John surgery, and he simply did what he does, leading the National League in starts, throwing 186 1/3 innings, and putting up a 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while striking out 153. Lynn did walk 78, a much higher rate than usual for him, but it is common for TJS survivors to get their velocity back in their first year and then to get their control/command back in the second year back from the surgery.
Signing Lynn would give the Twins an option akin to Santana – a guy who could toss 30 starts, give 6 innings most times out, and be more of a consistent workhorse more than an elite performing ace. It would give an additional arm when Santana returns this year and allow for Santana to walk after 2018 without hurting the Twins too bad.
However, the Twins wanted to sign one more arm before Santana was injured, so Lynn won’t be quite enough to accomplish what the team wanted. However, pursuing another of the “top 4” would be unwise as Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb would be poor fits unless on a very cheap or short-term deal.
News came out yesterday from Minnesota Twins beat writer Mike Berardino that the Twins were interested in lefty Jaime Garcia. The Twins had Garcia for a short time last summer before flipping him to the Yankees, and he would be the type of pitcher that would make sense to pair with Lynn on a short-term deal to eat up some innings at a quality level.
Other arms that could make sense on a short term deal would include Trevor Cahill, Andrew Cashner, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley, or Chris Tillman. The Twins could also make a move for a short term deal with veterans that could have one more solid season in the tank, like John Lackey, old friend Matt Garza, or Edinson Volquez.
While Lynn would be solid, that second list of names isn’t exactly encouraging or inspiring. What other options could the Twins pursue?
Next: Trade for a reliable arm
Trade for an inning-eater arm
For the Minnesota Twins, Santana represents a consistent inning-eater arm. Part of what they would look for in the trade market would certainly be a guy who could give those innings, though after seeing the Pirates have to make tough decisions to trade off players after their recent competitive runs, the Twins certainly would be wise to jump at a chance to get both an inning-eater and an upside guy.
Rays
Certainly, the first team and player that every fan will bring to mind will be the Tampa Bay Rays and Chris Archer. I covered earlier in the offseason the overvaluing of Archer in the trade market, and unless the team could use Gerrit Cole‘s trade as a basis for a deal with the Rays, he is not the guy to target with Tampa Bay.
While he’s had a few dings, Jake Odorizzi is coming off of a season with just 143 1/3 innings. However, over the last four seasons, Odorizzi has averaged 30 starts and 167 innings, with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Odorizzi is in arbitration, and is controlled through 2019 before he becomes a free agent.
The Rays have a host of pitchers in their minor leagues ready to jump to the majors as well, which could make a move for a young starter feasible as well. I don’t think you’ll see Blake Snell or Brent Honeywell as part of the deal, but perhaps Jake Faria, Jose De Leon, or Matt Andriese could also be part of the deal to add to the rotation.
Braves
The Atlanta Braves have been working to make a move with Julio Teheran for a few years at the right price, and the Twins could pounce on that opportunity this offseason as spring is about to break.
Teheran is not an elite “ace” type of pitcher, but he’s averaged 32 starts and 197 innings over the last 5 seasons. Teheran carries a 3.59 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP for his career, and though his numbers were rough in 2017, he was very impressive on the road (3.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) while he was blown up at the new home park for the Braves (5.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).
The Braves also have a number of excellent young arms that are major league ready that could be put into a deal. Very likely the Twins would have to give up a premium package to acquire both Teheran and another arm, but targeting someone like Mike Foltynewicz or Sean Newcomb would be ideal while former top prospects Aaron Blair or Matt Wisler could end up as “throw-in” players in a Teheran deal that could use a change of scenery.
This may end up being a deal that would cost major prospects – guys like Nick Gordon, Brusdar Graterol, Wander Javier, etc. I believe the Twins would not include Royce Lewis, using the Gerrit Cole deal as a way to set their price with the Braves, but the Braves also need to ensure they have a major league team for 2018 as well, so they’re not just going to hand over players for nothing as well.
Royals
The Royals really have two veteran arms that could be a quality option, but the guy that the team will most likely be very interested in (especially if they don’t sign another free agent) would be lefty Danny Duffy. Duffy is under control until 2021, and he’s at a very good rate.
While the Royals don’t really have young arms that would be better than those near the majors for the Twins, Duffy is an elite talent with the ability to be a true ace from the left side, and pairing he and Berrios at the top of the rotation going forward would be a very intriguing 1-2 option for the Twins, even though the cost would likely be as high or higher than any of these other deals.
So, the Twins just get one arm or they don’t get an additional arm at all – could they handle this with what they have on hand?
Next: One month auditions
Use internal options
This past summer, I explored how the Colorado Rockies had found success in 2017 and how the Twins could follow that path in 2018.
That path would still certainly work as many of the options are still in house. With Ervin Santana missing just one month, the team could go with a rotation headed by Berrios and Gibson, followed by a host of young arms who spend the spring competing to be in the opening day rotation, and then have guys at AAA that can immediately jump in if one of their opening day pieces falter.
Last season saw Adalberto Mejia get 21 starts, and he certainly could factor heavily. However, Aaron Slegers, Felix Jorge, and Dietrich Enns all made at least one start for the major league team and return to the organization in 2018. Add in top prospects Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, and Fernando Romero, each of whom had success in AA in 2017, Gonsalves even working his way to AAA, and you have the makings of 6 guys to compete for 3 spots.
The Twins also have a few guys who are similar to some of the pitchers the Rockies had that made a jump without significant upper levels experience in Lewis Thorpe or Lachlan Wells.
Interestingly, the Minnesota Twins also have Phil Hughes returning from thoracic outlet syndrome revision surgery, and he could contribute in the final year of his contract. Michael Pineda will return late in the season from Tommy John surgery as well, just to add two more arms into the mix.
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The other thing the Minnesota Twins have done well this offseason is lengthen their bullpen to protect against blow up issues with these starters. Adding three veteran bullpen pieces in free agency has allowed the talented young arms that produced a top-10 bullpen in the final two months of 2017 once closer Brandon Kintzler was traded to be reset and put into less-stressful roles.
The team will also have a host of talented relief arms on the 40-man roster sitting in AAA that could quickly move up and give relief to the team in the case of multiple starts in a row where the bullpen is used heavily.
The Minnesota Twins also have some arms that would work well in multiple innings in prospects Ryan Eades and Tyler Jay, who both showed well in the Arizona Fall League. Reliever Tyler Duffey could also go multiple innings in a long relief role for the team, moving him out of high-stress situations for the team.
Next: Braves revised top 100 prospects
The Minnesota Twins could go many routes to handle the absence of Ervin Santana for likely around a month of the regular season. It will be very interesting to see which route they choose to pursue!