Detroit Tigers: What does the future hold for Shane Greene?

While the Detroit Tigers have traded away many players since last summer, they still have a few very solid trade chips going forward. One of them could be a 29-year-old reliever, Shane Greene.

Before the 2015 season, the Detroit Tigers acquired Shane Greene from the New York Yankees in a three-team trade that also included the Arizona Diamondbacks. While initially a starter with the Detroit Tigers, Greene truly seemed to find his calling as a reliever last season.

Through a total of 67.2 innings last year, Greene posted a 2.66 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He averaged over a strikeout-per-inning with a 9.71 K/9, and his 71 relief appearances led the team. After the Tigers traded Justin Wilson to the Chicago Cubs, Greene also settled in nicely as the team’s new closer.

With the Tigers now in rebuild mode, some have begun to speculate on Greene’s future with the team. Last December, Jason Beck of MLB.com reported that Greene, along with third baseman/outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, was someone who had in fact garnered “some limited interest” from other clubs. Greene also made MLB Trade Rumors’ “Top 60 Remaining Trade Candidates” list this winter. Four other Tigers made the list as well as Alex Wilson, Michael Fulmer, Jose Iglesias, and Castellanos.

For right now, however, it appears very likely that the Tigers will be entering the 2018 season with Greene as their closer. But by the time next summer comes around, it shouldn’t be too surprising if Greene’s name comes up in trade talks. Most are expecting the Tigers to finish at or near the bottom the AL Central in 2018, so it would make sense for them to try to sell off a few more pieces if they fall out of contention by the middle of next year.

To trade or retain?

If Greene continues pitching the way that he did last season, he should be a highly-attractive trade chip. Moreover, he will not become a free agent until after the 2020 season. If Greene is dealt next summer, the team acquiring him will have the luxury of being able to keep him for 2.5 years. However, there could also be a reason for the Detroit Tigers to hold on to Greene as well.

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Even when the Tigers were playing better baseball, they seemed to always have issues with the bullpen, especially the closer’s role. Last year, Greene showed signs of being the lockdown closer that the team has been missing for all of these years. While it remains to be seen exactly how long the rebuild will last, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Tigers could climb back into the mix in the time that Greene remains under team control. It would, however, take an awful lot to go right.

That said, it is possible that Greene could regress next season as well. It is also worth looking at his ERA estimators from last season, as his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA were each higher than his actual ERA, checking in at 3.84, 4.24 and 4.02, respectively. FanGraphs Steamer is projecting that he will post a 4.03 ERA in 2018.

Another element that could conceivably make Greene more expendable is the development of Joe Jimenez — if Jimenez begins showing that he can indeed be the “closer of the future,” perhaps it is possible that moving on from Greene could make more sense.

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Right now, Greene is one of the only bright spots in a bullpen that posted an MLB-worst 5.63 ERA last year. It will be interesting to see how long he might remain part of that bullpen.