New York Mets need Zack Wheeler to return to form in 2018
The New York Mets have designs on competing in 2018. If they are going to do so, they need Zack Wheeler to be able to become the pitcher they hoped he would be.
There is an optimism surrounding the New York Mets heading into the 2018 season. They have signed Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier, as they look to bolster an offense that ranked ninth in the National League in OPS and was towards the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. The pitching staff may finally be healthy once again, finally giving New York the rotation they had envisioned years ago.
And yet, even with that rotation, there are question marks. Only Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard have been relatively consistent in the past few years. Matt Harvey has been a disaster, and Steven Matz‘ health is questionable at best. As such, if the Mets are going to contend in 2018, they may need Zack Wheeler to step up as their third starter.
Of all the pitchers on the Mets staff, Wheeler may be the biggest question mark. After missing the previous two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and continued elbow issues, he finally returned to the majors. The results were mixed, as Wheeler posted a 3-7 record along with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.587 WHiP in his 86.1 innings.
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Yet, there are signs of encouragement with Wheeler. His velocity was close to his previous levels, as he averaged 95.52 MPH on his fastball and 95.03 MPH with his sinker. Both marks are within one mile per hour of where his velocity was prior to Tommy John surgery.
Wheeler also continued his ground ball ways. He had a 0.92 GB/FB ratio last year, ahead of the league average. For every out in the air, Wheeler got 1.2 outs on the ground, proving how he need to pitch in order to succeed. With his velocity being sustained from before his injury woes, Wheeler continued his strong strikeout rates, with his 8.4 K/9 in line with his career marks.
The two biggest problems for Wheeler appear to be related to his command. His walks continued to plague him, as he issued a career high 4.2 BB/9 last year. He was also victimized by the long ball, with 12.0% of his fly balls leaving the yard. As he relies so much on being a ground ball pitcher, his margin for error is thin should he elevate the ball.
While Wheeler’s command has never been excellent, there is a chance that improves in the coming year. Typically, command is the last thing to come back after Tommy John surgery, and that may well be the case with Wheeler as well. If he can even improve slightly, and have a better sense of the strike zone, he could slot in as that third starter the Mets are in need of.
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The New York Mets have high hopes for 2018. Getting Zack Wheeler back to his previous level of production will make a major difference in those hopes.