MLB Free Agency by the numbers: Any collusion in the data?

Is collusion an issue during MLB Free Agency? Let’s jump into the numbers to find out.

Here’s a puzzler: What would an MLB Free Agency spring training camp be called? Camp Lock Out? Camp Locked Out? Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports suggested “Camp Collusion” might be dusted off. Brown broke the story on Feb. 7 that the MLB players’ union is considering a camp for unsigned free agents this spring. Ken Rosenthal tweeted one of his sources confirmed that story late that evening.

For the record, Camp Collusion ended in the spring of 1995 when many of the striking players there were finally signed to big league contracts.

With the first pitchers and catchers set to report for the coming MLB season in mere days, the cry of “Injustice!” has been raised by MLB players, their union, and their agents. This cry has arisen in the context of a Collective Bargaining Agreement with three more years to run, and frankly, considerable wealth being spread around among owners and players.

So, how many players are still unsigned, left dangling by their precious Free Agency.

There were 202 player lines in ESPN’s “2017 MLB Free Agents” chart on the morning of Feb. 8. Of those, 107 represent still unsigned, free-floating entertainment talent. The top 50 players on the list are ranked; the rest are not assigned numbers. Twenty-three of the unsigned are ranked, fully 46 percent of the top 50. They include the players ranked first, fourth, sixth, seventh, 11^th and 13^th – Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, and Mike Moustakas, respectively.

Thus, the players’ argument here could be: half of the best players available are going unsigned. Is this coincidence or collusion? Is there a point to Free Agency if this is the result of a good CBA? These guys don’t know where or if they’ll be working in two months.

A Deeper Dig within MLB Free Agency

Of the ranked, unsigned 23, ten are starters among 11 pitchers overall. All of the starters are between 30 and 39, and the oldest is John Lackey. The average 2017 salary of the unsigned starters was $10.55 million. Eight of the ten untethered starters are in their early 30s, so all of them want their big (correction, bigger) contract now, preferably a multi-year deal. Posit, then, a three or four-year contract for any of these guys picked at random. This is a minimum commitment of $33 to $44 million, and that’s if the guy will actually sign for only half a million over the average salary the market gave up last year. So, make the range a bit higher – perhaps, minimally, $36 to $48 million.

All right, starting pitchers are expensive, but what do you get in them? Maybe you pay more for a Darvish; perhaps you shoot for the middle of the pack. The middle is a guy like Andrew Cashner, ranked 34^th among all the free agents, probably that high only because he is a starter. Cashner is 42-64 over eight years and made $10 million in ’17.

Does an owner have to collude with other owners to conclude that Cashner may be a bit overpriced at $10 million a year? I don’t think so. Cashner has played for some bad teams, but he’s now 30, and last year was 11-11. His team, the Rangers, didn’t quite reach .500. His career ERA is 3.80, his career WHIP 1.319. Nonetheless, at 30 Cashner is seen by some as being worth $12-$14 million a year for perhaps three years. One writer called that “a steal.” I’m not so sure.

More from Call to the Pen

How about the highly ranked but unsigned position players? Take one of the remaining prizes among the unsigned, Eric Hosmer. The former Royals first baseman made $12.2 million last year, and in November, “word” was his agent, Scott Boras, wanted a $200 million deal for a very long contract, with allegedly more rational folks predicting $120 million for five or six years. Neither prediction has come true yet. Is it collusion keeping him from his money?

Or is he asking too much? Here are Hosmer’s numbers in proper order: 28 years old; career .284 BA (career-high .318 in 2017); 6-foot-4, 225 pounds; 127 HR in seven years; one year with over 100 RBI; .781 OPS (two years over .800). In seven years his eye has improved from 34 walks a year to 66; in the first case, he had 563 plate appearances, in the second, 671. That’s moving from a six percent rate to 9.8.

Is that asking too much? You tell me. He does have four Gold Gloves. Still, the low-end prediction here is $20 million a year to tie him up until he’s 33.

Next: Yasiel Puig dropped by agents

Absent any concrete evidence of collusion by the owners here, what I see this winter and MLB Free Agency is hardball business being done. Note to general managers, though: Logan Morrison is a steal.

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