3 Phillies at a critical juncture
While three Phillies must outperform each other for two jobs or more playing time, general manager Matt Klentak could still sign a top free agent from the 2018-2019 class even if the three excel this summer.
Make-or-break season:
For J.P. Crawford, Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery, ’18 will determine their status on the ’19 Philadelphia Phillies, who could add Manny Machado. And each player has a lot to gain or lose with their proficiency determining their fate.
IN OTHER WORDS: “At each point in our lives, we are at a crossroads. We are the fruit of our past and we are the architects of our future. If you want to know your past, look at your present circumstances. If you want to know your future, look at what is in your mind.” – Matthieu Ricard
Regarding free agency for next winter, franchises are and will be facing limitations on their excessive spending, not just the luxury tax. And most organizations will only be able to sign one superstar for $300 million or more.
Even if some front offices get under the $197 million penalty threshold, one Machado acquisition will put them over by almost his entire AAV (average annual value). In other words, a second $30 million yearly will increase the overage to nearly $60 million and make it almost impossible to avoid annual penalties.
By comparison, the Phils and other big-market teams will have limited ability to carry more than two major financial outlays including their current stars down the road. So, the second mammoth contract could eventually go to Aaron Nola or Rhys Hoskins. Ergo, a consideration. But significant dollar commitments also determine the length of keeping a contending squad together.
Yes, the competitive balance threshold rises every couple campaigns, but it will only increase to $206 million for 2019. However, other clubs are not exempt from overspending either: They are small market, rebuilding basement dwellers, and the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros with their future bank-breakers.
One franchise player:
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Mike Trout
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw
- New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton
On Phillies sites, many Internet posters have complained about not inking a much-needed ace, and some fans reason the red pinstripes are cheap, stupid or incompetent. Well, the tax for exceeding the $197 million (current only) is 50 percent for the excess in the third consecutive year and every season thereafter: So, $60 million over equals a $30 million penalty.
According to MLB.com, additional fines include a surtax for excessive overspending and losing 10 places in the MLB Draft. Realistically, if even the flush-with-cash Yankees must curtail their expenditures, how can any organization do otherwise? Parity reigns supreme!
Competition:
As for president Andy MacPhail, dollarwise and lengthwise he prefers aces who are under 30 like Nola, but free-agent hitters are a different story for the exec. In other words, the older Carlos Santana received a three-summer contract to age 35, while Machado could earn a 10-campaign deal ending at age 36.
When it comes to bidders for Machado, New York (AL) needs a second baseman; they have a shortstop and a rookie third sacker. So, if Miguel Andujar impresses at third or their shortstop can handle second base, they might have interest in Machado.
In New York, Harper would have to play center or Judge would have to DH if the Yanks sign the outfielder. On the other hand, the Washington Nationals would have to defer half of Harper’s agreement if they can even do that. Or they receive their claim of over $100 million owed in their television revenue dispute with the Baltimore Orioles.
On the Phils end, inking Machado will depend on 2018’s performances by Franco, Crawford, and Kingery. But signing Harper will rely on the 162s of Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr.
By games played, the outfield rotation will have Hoskins and Odubel Herrera starting 140 contests apiece with 206 games split between Williams and Altherr. Meanwhile, Hernandez will also have 140 contests, but Franco and Crawford will roughly start 57 times before Kingery’s call-up at May’s end.
Results equal playing time!
Game starts: 486 (162 for three positions)
- Hoskins and Herrera: 140 each.
- Williams and Altherr: 103 each.
- Hernandez: 140.
- Franco and Crawford: 125 each.
- Kingery: 70.
Crossroads:
Machado is returning to short for Baltimore, so the battle here for ’19 could be at third base between Franco, Crawford and Kingery. And even if those three produce, Machado could still sign with Philly, May the best men win!
At the hot corner, Franco has two possible outcomes besides another disappointing season. For instance, if he averages .260 with 25 homers and 80 RBIs, his rebound will be enough to satisfy management going forward.
WORDS OF WISDOM: “Adversity is a crossroads that makes a person choose one of two paths: character or compromise. Every time he chooses character, he becomes stronger, even if that choice brings negative consequences.” – John C. Maxwell
Franco could nail down the position if he hits .280 with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs, but he produced those numbers during his competition with Crawford from Sept. 5 on .279 with six bombs and 14 RBIs. Statistically, those 26 games project out to 46 long balls and 108 RBIs over a full summer. A motivational cure?
Crawford also has two sets of numbers. If he bats .250 with a .350 OBP, he’ll certainly be returning, but .280 with a .380 OBP may change a few minds behind the front-office door. To illustrate, he averaged .287 with a .385 OBP, nine homers and 27 RBIs for the second half with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
Regarding Kingery, the second sacker hit .294 with eight home runs and 26 RBIs after his promotion to Lehigh Valley. So, if his projection is .280 with 15 bombs and 75 RBIs annually, he’ll be in Klentak’s plans. But the production of .260 with 10 long balls and 50 RBIs adjusted for a full 162 will be satisfactory.
On the other hand, another dreadful campaign for Franco could mean a move to another team. And Franco, Crawford, and Kingery as Phillies will be what if they do not live up to expectations? An IronPig!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
MLB:
- Machado, 25.5: 156 Gms., 690 PA, a .259 Avg., a .310 OBP, a .471 SLG, a .213 ISO, a .265 BABIP, 33 HR, 95 RBI, a .782 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.
- Harper, 25: 111 Gms., 492 PA, a .319 Avg., a .413 OBP, a .595 SLG, a .276 ISO, a .356 BABIP, 29 HR, 87 RBI, a 1.008 OPS and a 4.8 fWAR.
Phillies infielders:
- Franco, 25.5: 154 Gms., 623 PA, a .230 Avg., a .281 OBP, a .409 SLG, a .179 ISO, a .234 BABIP, 24 HR, 76 RBI, a .690 OPS and a -0.5 fWAR.
- Hernandez, 27.5: 128 Gms., 577 PA, a .294 Avg., a .373 OBP, a .421 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .353 BABIP, 9 HR, 34 RBI, a .793 OPS, 3.3 fWAR, 15 SB, 5 CS and a 6.0 Spd.
Crawford, 23:
- Phillies: 23 Gms., 87 PA, a .214 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .300 SLG, a .086 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .656 OPS and a 0.2 fWAR.
- AAA: 127 Gms., 556 PA, a .243 Avg., a .351 OBP, a .405 SLG, a .162 ISO, a .275 BABIP, 15 HR, 63 RBI, a .756 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.
Kingery, 23.5:
- AAA: 63 Gms., 286 PA, a .294 Avg., a .337 OBP, a .449 SLG, a .155 ISO, a .348 BABIP, 8 HR, 21 RBI, a .786 OPS, 1.1 WARP, 10 SB, 2 CS and 6.8 Spd.
- AA: 69 Gms., 317 PA, a .313 Avg., a .379 OBP, a .608 SLG, a .295 ISO, a .324 BABIP, 18 HR, 44 RBI, a .987 OPS, 4.0 WARP, 19 SB, 3 CS and 8.7 Spd.
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Phillies outfielders:
- Herrera, 26: 138 Gms., 563 PA, a .281 Avg., a .325 OBP, a .452 SLG, a .171 ISO, a .345 BABIP, 14 HR, 56 RBI, a .778 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.
- Altherr, 27: 107 Gms., 412 PA, a .272 Avg., a .340 OBP, a .516 SLG, a .245 ISO, a .308 BABIP, 19 HR, 65 RBI, an .856 OPS and a 1.3 fWAR.
Hoskins, almost 25:
- Phillies: 50 Gms., 212 PA, a .259 Avg., a .396 OBP, a .618 SLG, a .359 ISO, a .241 BABIP, 18 HR, 48 RBI, a 1.014 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.
- AAA: 115 Gms., 425 PA, a .284 Avg., a .385 OBP, a .581 SLG, a .297 ISO, a .229 BABIP, 29 HR, 91 RBI, a .966 OPS and a 2.7 WARP.
Williams, 24.5:
- Phillies: 83 Gms., 343 PA, a .288 Avg., a .338 OBP, a .473 SLG, a .185 ISO, a .375 BABIP, 12 HR, 55 RBI, an .811 OPS and a 0.8 fWAR.
- AAA: 78 Gms., 306 PA, a .280 Avg., a .308 OBP, a .511 SLG, a .230 ISO, a .358 BABIP, 15 HR, 44 RBI, an .839 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.
Next: One major free agent for 2019's Phillies
Yankees infielders:
- SS Gregorius, almost 28: 136 Gms., 616 PA, a .287 Avg., a .318 OBP, a .478 SLG, a .191 ISO, a .287 BABIP, 25 HR, 87 RBI, a .796 OPS and a 3.9 fWAR.
- 3B Andujar, almost 23: 58 Gms., 250 PA, a .317 Avg., a .364 OBP, a .502 SLG, a .185 ISO, a .333 BABIP, 9 HR, 43 RBI, an .866 OPS and a 1.8 WARP.