Houston Astros: Top 10 Rookie-Eligible Prospects for 2018

10. Corbin Martin, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/28/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Astros, short-season A-ball Tri-City ValleyCats
2017 Stats: 10 G, 4 GS, 32 2/3 IP, 2.20 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 7% BB, 33.6% K

Info: One of the most reliable arms in the 2017 college class, Martin was the ace of the Texas A&M staff this spring before the Houston Astros made him their second round selection.

Due to the workload he had in his draft season with the Aggies and his lack of experience with heavy inning loads, the Astros gave him a smaller workload in his pro debut.

As he gets more feel on his breaking pitches, Martin will be able to pair them with his fastball/change to give him a solid four-pitch mix

Martin worked in the mid-90s as a closer in the Cape Cod League, but he worked more in the 91-93 range as a starter and he was able to locate better and get better movement on the pitch as well. Martin’s best offspeed is an above-average change.

While Martin uses both a slider and a curve, his slider is ahead of the curve, even though both are below average pitches in break. He was able to locate both pitches better as a starter, and that did allow him to get plenty of swing and miss with both pitches.

As he gets more feel on his breaking pitches, Martin will be able to pair them with his fastball/change to give him a solid four-pitch mix. While that’s not likely going to project at the front of a rotation, his repeatable delivery and command should allow him to be a solid mid-rotation option.

Martin will open 2018 in full-season ball, whether that’s with low-A or high-A.

9. J.D. Davis, 3B

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/27/1993 (24)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Corpus Cristi Hooks, AAA Fresno Grizzlies, MLB Houston Astros
2017 Stats: Minors: .282/.345/.527, 461 PA, 26 HR, 5 SB, 40/108 BB/K; Majors: .226/.279/.484, 68 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, 4/20 BB/K

Info: Highly regarded out of high school, Davis was a 5th round selection, in spite of his strong commitment to Cal State Fullerton. Three years later, the Houston Astros nabbed him in the 3rd round and he’s been crushing baseballs ever since.

Davis is a big guy at third base, at 6’3″ and 225 pounds. However, he does have an excellent arm at third (he was a pitcher in college) that covers for his average-at-best range at third. He has similar range at first base, but he does have good hands at either position.

Davis has incredible power in his swing, but he keeps his swing more level than he really should. He could find himself driving a ton more balls out of the park by adjusting his swing angle, even though his prodigious power has certainly produced well in the minors thus far, hitting 88 home runs over four seasons.

Davis is really stuck behind a number of options in Houston and is likely best used by the organization as trade fodder. For now, he’s likely to open 2018 in AAA and fill in as needed due to injury at the corner infield spots, but he could be a secondary piece in a midseason trade and get a chance to show his power elsewhere.

Next: #7 and #8

8. David Paulino, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/6/1994 (24)
2017 teams/levels played for: AAA Fresno Grizzlies, MLB Houston Astros
2017 Stats: Minors: 3 GS, 14 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 14.5% BB, 21% K; Majors: 6 GS, 29 IP, 6.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 5.5% BB, 26.6% K

Info: The Detroit Tigers signed Paulino out of the Dominican Republic in 2010, and he was traded to the Astros after having Tommy John surgery in mid-2013. He missed the entire first year in the Astros organization in 2014.

When he returned in 2015, he was incredible, pitching across three levels with a 2.81 ERA over 67 1/3 innings, striking out 72. In 2016, he pitched across the upper minors and made his major league debut. In the minors, he threw 90 innings, with a 2.00 ERA and struck out 106.

Not having shown that he could be healthy yet, he opened 2017 injured as well, not making his season debut until May 11th in the minors. By the end of May, he was up at the big league level, making a big impression with his season debut, striking out 8 in 4 innings in a start against the Twins.

However, at the end of June, Paulino was suspended 80 games due to a positive PED test. He did not pitch again due to surgery to remove bone chips in his pitching elbow, meaning he’s still not yet eclipsed 100 innings, even combined with major and minor league time.

At 6’7″ and a well-build 215-225 pounds, he has an excellent fastball that sits in the 91-93 range and can touch 95-96 with a hard curve that ranges into the mid-80s, but sits more in the 81-83 range. He gets a ton of ground balls off of both pitches and plenty of swing and miss.

When healthy, he shows very good command and control, which is rare for a guy at his size, and his change is also excellent, giving him a 3-pitch mix that would allow him to succeed at the middle of the rotation, but he cannot keep healthy. He’s also one positive PED test away from missing a full season, and he’ll be 24 to open the 2018 season, making his path to long-term success much more cloudy.

Paulino will compete for a major league bullpen role to open the season, but likely will open the year in the rotation in AAA, riding the train between Fresno and Houston frequently as needed.

7. Freudis Nova, SS

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 1/12/2000 (18)
2017 teams/levels played for: Dominican Summer League Astros Orange
2017 Stats: .247/.342/.355, 190 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, 15/33 BB/K

Info: Nova became the center of a brewing controversy when he tested positive for the same PED as 2016 draftee Delvin Perez. Nova’s stock took a big hit, from a feasible $3 million-plus signee in July 2016 with the Marlins to $1.2 million with the Houston Astros.

Unlike Perez, Nova has maintained his stock and even improved upon it in his pro time, showing off 70 grade speed and a plus arm in the infield. There is some question as to whether Nova will fill out to move to third base, but he’s shown the instincts to handle shortstop to this point and certainly has the speed to stick as well.

There is some question as to whether Nova will fill out to move to third base, but he’s shown the instincts to handle shortstop to this point

Nova showed very good zone recognition, but his pitch recognition against premium velocity or harder breaking stuff was still lacking, though that’s not uncommon for a teenager in his first pro exposure.

Nova does have above-average bat speed, and as he fills out into his 6’1″ frame, he should be able to generate at least average power, if not above-average power along with his premium speed.

Nova’s tremendous raw talents will get their first stateside test in 2018, and he could explode up this list if he handles that transition well.

Next: #5 and #6

6. Cionel Perez, LHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/21/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Quad Cities River Bandits, high-A Buies Creek Astros, AA Corpus Christi Hooks
2017 Stats: 21 G, 16 GS, 93 2/3 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.9% BB, 21.3% K

Info: After a long negotiation with the Astros that at one point was considered “off” due to medical concerns, Perez signed with the Houston Astros out of Cuba. He made his stateside debut in 2017 and put up pretty numbers at times.

Perez offers a fastball that reaches the upper 90s and sits in the mid-90s with wicked movement, especially low in the strike zone. Perez features a wicked slider as well, though the slider seemed to get a lot more weak contact than it did swing and miss in 2017.

The big drawback on Perez is his size (5’11”, 175 pounds listed, though both could be generous). Due to his size, his delivery has some effort to generate the velocity and break he gets on his pitches, and that leads to some injury worry.

The Houston Astros could bring up Perez in a relief role in 2018 at some point as that could maximize his fastball/slider combo, but he has a high ceiling as a starter due to the quality of his first two pitches, such that the Astros would be served leaving him in the rotation until he forces his way out of it.

Perez will likely open 2018 in the upper minors, whether that’s AA (where he tossed just 13 innings) or all the way up to AAA.

5. Yordan Alvarez, 1B

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/27/1997 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Quad Cities River Bandits, high-A Buies Creek Astros
2017 Stats: .304/.379/.481, 391 PA, 12 HR, 8 SB, 42/77 BB/K

Info: After losing out on Alvarez to the Dodgers, the Houston Astros worked out a deal to acquire Alvarez from LA in a trade that sent reliever Josh Fields to the Dodgers.

Alvarez had a 16-game introduction to pro ball in the DSL in 2016 where he crushed the ball. Then he jumped up to low A ball immediately. He struggled with a wrist injury roughly the same time that he moved up to Buies Creek, which affected his power numbers.

The thing that is underappreciated about Alvarez is that he is an excellent athlete

Alvarez has tremendous bat speed and his large frame would lead to power projection regardless of his injury. He does have a swing more tailored for pounding out doubles and hitting for a high average than knocking out 30+ home runs, in spite of his massive size (6’5″, 225 pounds listed).

In spite of his swing, he has the kind of natural strength and bat speed that he will likely generate 20+ home runs and 40+ doubles at the major league level once he gets there along with a high contact rate.

The thing that is underappreciated about Alvarez is that he is an excellent athlete, very possibly able to handle the outfield long-term. He probably isn’t going to see a lot of stolen bases through that athleticism as he is more fast once underway than quick in his first few steps, but he would likely see more triples than you’d expect from a big guy due to that athleticism.

Alvarez will open the season most likely in AA, and he could push for a September call up this season at just 21.

Next: #3 and #4

4. Hector Perez, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/6/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Quad Cities River Bandits, high-A Buies Creek Astros
2017 Stats: 25 G, 17 GS, 107 1/3 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 16.8% BB, 27.5% K

Info: Perez jumped up quickly after being a later signee out of the Dominican, signing just before his age 19 season. Due to his more advanced age, he moved quickly through the DSL, GCL, and Appy Leagues all in 2015, posting a 1.64 ERA over 55 innings with 50 strikeouts.

The Houston Astros moved him up to short-season A-ball to open 2016, and he pushed his way to low-A by the end of the season with a 3.15 ERA over 60 innings, striking out an impressive 80 hitters. That caught quite a few eyes of evaluators.

When he’s got his stuff around the zone, Perez is nearly impossible to hit and generates a ton of swing and miss

When he’s got his stuff around the zone, Perez is nearly impossible to hit and generates a ton of swing and miss. In 2017, he struggled to find the zone across two A-ball levels. He did strike out 128 in 107 1/3 innings, but he walked nearly twice as many as what you would want from a starting pitcher.

However, those times he’s around the zone, you see how incredible the stuff truly is. He has a fastball that can bump triple digits, sitting around mid-90s, with the ability to manipulate his fastball with cut and sink. He has a wicked split change that generates a lot of his swing and miss.

Perez’s breaking stuff are both currently average or a tick below average, but they both have excellent break that he could potentially move to above-average or even plus pitches with better command and control of the pitches.

There is definitely issue that he could end up in the bullpen, but Perez is still raw enough in his development that he will be given plenty of time in the rotation, likely spending the majority of the season at AA.

3. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/11/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Astros, short-season A-ball Tri-City ValleyCats
2017 Stats: 3 GS, 10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 12.8% BB, 23.1% K

Info: Interestingly enough, Bukauskas drew comparisons in college to his organization-mate with the Houston Astros, Lance McCullers, Jr., due to their stature and hard fastball with an elite secondary pitch. Bukauskas has an elite slider instead of a curve like McCullers, but the profiles line up well otherwise.

That is very possibly why the Astros were the team to pull the trigger on Bukauskas when he began to fall down the draft board due to other organizations’ concerns about his size and ability to hold up long term at his build. A number of teams were worried that he would be a reliever, but the Astros believe he could be a starter.

Bukauskas features a fastball that sits 92-94, touching 96-97 at the top end with plenty of life on the pitch, though he did struggle with seeing his velocity dip a full two ticks by the end of starts by the end of the college season.

His best pitch by far is his slider, a wicked pitch that sits in the mid-80s and can run into the upp too mucher 80s with incredible late bite and deception in that he gets initial look out of hand of his fastball, which gives the pitch even more effectiveness. His biggest issue is leaning on the pitch a bit.

The development of his change will determine his future path, but J.B. has a floor of a dominant closer, so he is a fairly safe bet, providing health.

Bukauskas will certainly open with a full season league, but it will be interesting to see where the Houston Astros send him with the development still needed in his change. It’s feasible he ends up as high as AA to open just because of the ability for team officials to work with him closely there.

Next: #1 and #2

2. Forrest Whitley, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/15/1997 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Quad Cities River Bandits, high-A Buies Creek Astros, AA Corpus Cristi Hooks
2017 Stats:

Info: A guy who had mixed reviews coming into the 2016 draft depending on when scouts saw him. Whitley stands 6’7″, and he went from a reported 250ish pounds down to 220ish by draft time, and he kept working on his conditioning post-draft, listed under 200 coming into this season, though he looked like he did fill into his frame with “good weight” as the season went on.

Whitley had elite stuff the summer before draft, but he had conditioning issues that made keeping it up for very long an issue. The improved conditioning led to some inconsistencies in his stuff throughout his final high school season.

As a pro, his stuff has not only been consistent, but it’s been incredibly high quality. Whitley offers all of his stuff from a high 3/4 arm slot, which pairs with his height to give him extreme plane on his fastball, which already has excellent velocity, sitting 92-94, touching 97.

Whitley saw the command and control of all of his pitches tick up to a plus level in 2017, which allowed his mid-80s slider and upper-70s curve to play up. His change was not as consistent as his first three pitches, but it flashed plus level at times with late movement low in the zone, especially making it brutal on lefty hitters.

Whitley isn’t satisfied with a plus fastball, potential plus change, and two above-average breakers with excellent control. He worked on a cutter that he threw out in game, and I had a report from two scouts that he was throwing a split-change variation in bullpens that never made it into a game.

With the command/control that he exhibited in 2017 and ability to learn new pitches with feel seemingly immediate, Whitley has a chance to be the best pitcher currently in the minor leagues. He tossed 14 2/3 regular season innings at AA in 2017, so it would make sense for him to open the season at that level, but it would not surprise if he ended up in AAA by the end of the season with a chance to challenge for a rotation spot in 2019.

1. Kyle Tucker, OF

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 1/17/1997 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Buies Creek Astros, AA Corpus Cristi Hooks
2017 Stats: .274/.346/.528, 523 PA, 25 HR, 21 SB, 46/109 BB/K

Info: Tucker was highly regarded coming out of high school, but the Houston Astros picked him ahead of where he was projected in a way to land the trio of Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Daz Cameron all with 3 picks in the first 37 selections of the draft.

Tucker has shown impressive maturity in his game throughout his professional development. His brother, Preston Tucker, paving the path ahead of him likely helped in his preparation for the pro game, but he has handled many of the challenges of the game well, and he’s shown excellent maturity at the plate as well.

Tucker adjusted his swing a bit this season to access more of his natural strength in his swing

Tucker adjusted his swing a bit this season to access more of his natural strength in his swing, and that led to a bit of cost to his contact rate, but he certainly accessed his power and was able to still utilize his impressive overall athleticism. Really, what the swing adjustment did was add power to an incredible overall package.

Tucker did struggle some in the Arizona Fall League, and that’s seemingly bumped a number of people off of him, even though he had an impressive overall year. While he’s a fringe center fielder, Tucker in a corner would be one of the best athletes in a corner, allowing him to feasibly work as a plus defender down the road in a corner, even though his arm is average.

Baseball America reported in their review of the top 10 prospects in Houston’s system that Tucker had received some descriptions of “low-energy” due to his even approach to the game. I’ve heard similar reports, though in reality, many have reported it’s more of a lack of panic than it is a lack of passion, and sometimes there can be a fine line between the two.

Tucker could open in AA again in 2018, but he feasibly will see a September call up this season, and he should be ready to compete for a big league job in 2019.

Next: Newcomers to watch

2017 Acquisition: Joe Perez, 3B

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/12/1999 (18)
2017 teams/levels played for: none
2017 Stats: none

Info: Perez had the distinction of being both one of the youngest players in the entire 2017 draft and also one of a handful of guys with legit possible futures as either a pitcher or hitter. Perez turned 18 in mid-August, but he had Tommy John surgery before the draft, which led to him falling to the 2nd round to the Houston Astros.

Perez was one of the top arms in the high school class, with a fastball that could bump triple digits, though he was still very much a thrower, with little experience on the mound and mechanics that positioned him as a thrower more than a pitcher.

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The Astros announced Perez as a third basement when they drafted him, and that path would make perfect sense as well, as he has all-fields power from the right-hand side.

Perez is raw defensively at third, but he certainly has the arm and the natural athleticism to work at the position with pro instruction. With a season of rehab due to his TJS, Perez should have plenty of time working with the club on his future path.

Many have compared Perez to Austin Riley in the Atlanta Braves organization, similarly a pitcher/hitter coming out of the draft who many favored as a pitcher and had defensive questions. As Riley finds himself on a number of top 100 lists this year after reaching AA at just 20 in 2017.

Next: Verlander undervalued in dynasty

So that is the Houston Astros top 10 prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!