MLB Free Agency: Should Jake Arrieta take a short-term high money deal?
By Jason Evans
As the glacially slow MLB Free Agency market slides towards Spring Training, we could see players take short-term high AAV deals. Should Jake Arrieta be one of those players?
Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training next week, and unless some movement happens in MLB Free Agency, there will be plenty of talented players out there without deals. One of them is former Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta. Arrieta will turn 32 years old in March and like many of the top free agents left on the market, is a Scott Boras client.
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As we have seen in recent years, the big bucks aren’t there in free agency. Only Yoenis Cespedes has gotten a $100 million contract. Teams are operating under a higher AAV but lower length. Teams seem to be taking that approach, and with Arrieta, that may be his best avenue to a deal.
If Jake Arrieta ever gets to point where he defers pursuit of long-term deal in this slow market, there are teams very interested in discussing high-salary short-term deal with him.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 9, 2018
If I’m running a club, I’m not sure that I would give Arrieta a ton of money and a long-term deal. Since his ridiculous 2015, his stats have declined. His FIP has gone from 2.35 to 4.16. His K/9 has gone from 9.2 to 8.7. His groundball rate has declined from 56% to 45%, while his flyball rate has gone up from 22% to 34%. His fastball velocity has dropped, even those his usage of it has increased.
Plenty of teams could use Arrieta, The Twins, Brewers, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, and Cubs have all be linked to Arrieta and starting pitchers, in general, this year. Arrieta and Yu Darvish have been the top of the market and part of why others haven’t signed yet is because they haven’t.
If Arrieta becomes more amiable to a short-term deal in MLB Free Agency, it could, in theory, help him get a longer one. Maybe if he says he’ll take a two or three-year deal, one team offers four to get him signed, and Arrieta finds himself a nice payday.
Neither the players nor owners are breaking from their stand, and it may be that the players have to live with shorter deals but higher wages for those contracts. One of those players is Arrieta, and it could all work out to his benefit in the end.