How do the 2018 MLB standings shape up using an average of five projection sources?
Even though the 2018 MLB season is more than six weeks away and there are a ton of free agents still out there looking for jobs, we’ve seen projected standings pop up everywhere the last few days. Just in the previous week, we’ve seen the standings projected by USA Today, PECOTA, and Bleacher Report. Also, Fangraphs has had their projected standings regularly updating for much of the off-season, and Clay Davenport came out with projected standings in late January.
With all of these sources available, it occurred to me that a “wisdom of the crowds” approach would be informative. This concept is based on the 2004 book of the same name by James Surowiecki. His research showed how large groups often made better decisions than individual experts. Surowiecki’s book investigates how the concept applies to many different fields, including popular culture, psychology, behavioral economics, and politics, among others.
For my purposes here, I’ve averaged merely the five sources named above to create projected win-loss records for every team in baseball. One result of this method is that the averaging flattens out the projections. For example, Bleacher Report’s prediction of 104 wins for the Washington Nationals is countered by PECOTA’s projection of 89 wins. That’s the nature of the “wisdom of the crowds” approach.
Of course, most teams likely still have moves to make. Now that Yu Darvish is off the table, there’s still another top-tier starting pitcher (Jake Arrieta) available to any team who wants to spend the money. He could add two or three wins to a team currently in the mix for a wild card spot. J.D. Martinez is an impact hitter looking for a new home. Eric Hosmer could go to a contender or back to Kansas City in an effort to help them avoid losing 90 games (based on projections!).
Speaking of Darvish, his signing with the Cubs today may not yet be factored into the projections that regularly update, like PECOTA and Fangraphs. For now, this is what the standings look like in the “wisdom of the crowds” crystal ball. Let’s take a look division by division.