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MLB Standings: The “wisdom of the crowds” approach

By Bobby Mueller

HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 03: Carlos Correa, left, and George Springer of the Houston Astros during the Houston Astros Victory Parade on November 3, 2017 in Houston, Texas. The Astros defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 in Game 7 to win the 2017 World Series. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 03: Carlos Correa, left, and George Springer of the Houston Astros during the Houston Astros Victory Parade on November 3, 2017 in Houston, Texas. The Astros defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 in Game 7 to win the 2017 World Series. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /
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HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 21: Aaron Judge /

MLB: AL East

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

  1. 93-69 New York Yankees (91 to 96 wins)
  2. 90-72 Boston Red Sox (87 to 92 wins)
  3. 81-81 Toronto Blue Jays (78 to 85 wins)
  4. 77-85 Tampa Bay Rays (71 to 84 wins)
  5. 72-90 Baltimore Orioles (69 to 77 wins)

Three of the five sources have the Yankees winning the AL East, and the other two have the Red Sox taking the division. All five sources have both teams making the playoffs, with one winning the division and the other being the top wild card team each time. If you’re wondering what a J.D. Martinez signing could mean for the Red Sox, you might be surprised that it doesn’t move the needle that much, at least based on projections.

The Red Sox have a strong outfield. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi are both good on both sides of the ball, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. is inconsistent on offense but very good on defense. This leaves the DH spot for J.D. Martinez. The Red Sox already have Hanley Ramirez lined up to play DH. Fangraphs projects Martinez to be worth 1.5 wins more than Ramirez, which doesn’t make up the three-game gap between the Red Sox and Yankees shown above.

Continuing down the standings, the Toronto Blue Jays are in the mix for a wild card spot based on their 81 average wins, but none of the five sources project them to take one of the wild card spots. The Tampa Bay Rays, on the other hand, are expected by PECTOA to win 84 games and take the second wild card. The other four sources have them finishing under .500.

The Orioles are sitting in the basement, projected to win between 69 and 72 MLB games by four of the five sources. Clay Davenport is the outlier, pegging them as a 77-win team, which would be slightly better than last year’s 75-87 squad.

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