MLB: AL Central
Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):
- 98-64 Cleveland Indians (93 to 103 wins)
- 84-78 Minnesota Twins (81 to 87 wins)
- 70-92 Chicago White Sox (65 to 73 wins)
- 67-95 Kansas City Royals (59 to 73 wins)
- 66-96 Detroit Tigers (61 to 70 wins)
In their final year with Chief Wahoo as their primary logo, Cleveland is expected to cruise to an easy division title, with an average of 98 wins. Clay Davenport and Bleacher Report have them winning 100 or more games, while Fangraphs has them at just 93 wins. They combine a good offense with a steady starting rotation and top-notch bullpen. Their one-two punch of Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco is one of the best starting pitcher duos in baseball.
The Twins don’t look like challengers for the division, but also don’t have any competition coming up from behind them. If the bottom three teams in the AL Central are as bad as they look, the Twins will have an advantage in the wild card race because of all the games they get to play against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers.
Unlike the Houston Astros, it looks like the Chicago White Sox won’t plummet to the depths of the standings while they go through the rebuilding process. The Astros suffered through three straight 100-loss seasons before becoming respectable. The White Sox will likely have a sixth straight losing season, but they won’t lose 100 games, and their farm system was ranked fourth by Baseball America.
Royals fans may object to that 67-win projection because the Royals have a history of outperforming expectations that goes back to their World Series teams in 2014 and 2015. They’ve won more games than would be expected based on their runs scored and runs allowed in each of the last four seasons. Their 80 wins last year was nine more than their projected record.
Then again, they’ve already lost Lorenzo Cain to MLB free agency and maybe without Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas if neither re-signs with the team. Unless Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar (or Ned Yost) are the sources of their baseball magic, the Royals will finish with fewer than 70 wins for the first time since 2010.
After four straight MLB playoff seasons from 2011 to 2014, the Tigers have now finished in last place twice in the last three years. They’re projected to finish at the bottom of the NL Central again this year. Bleacher Report has them losing 101 games, and their average of 66 wins based on all five sources is the lowest in the AL.