MLB Standings: The “wisdom of the crowds” approach

How do the 2018 MLB standings shape up using an average of five projection sources?

Even though the 2018 MLB season is more than six weeks away and there are a ton of free agents still out there looking for jobs, we’ve seen projected standings pop up everywhere the last few days. Just in the previous week, we’ve seen the standings projected by USA Today, PECOTA, and Bleacher Report. Also, Fangraphs has had their projected standings regularly updating for much of the off-season, and Clay Davenport came out with projected standings in late January.

With all of these sources available, it occurred to me that a “wisdom of the crowds” approach would be informative. This concept is based on the 2004 book of the same name by James Surowiecki. His research showed how large groups often made better decisions than individual experts. Surowiecki’s book investigates how the concept applies to many different fields, including popular culture, psychology, behavioral economics, and politics, among others.

For my purposes here, I’ve averaged merely the five sources named above to create projected win-loss records for every team in baseball. One result of this method is that the averaging flattens out the projections. For example, Bleacher Report’s prediction of 104 wins for the Washington Nationals is countered by PECOTA’s projection of 89 wins. That’s the nature of the “wisdom of the crowds” approach.

Of course, most teams likely still have moves to make. Now that Yu Darvish is off the table, there’s still another top-tier starting pitcher (Jake Arrieta) available to any team who wants to spend the money. He could add two or three wins to a team currently in the mix for a wild card spot. J.D. Martinez is an impact hitter looking for a new home. Eric Hosmer could go to a contender or back to Kansas City in an effort to help them avoid losing 90 games (based on projections!).

Speaking of Darvish, his signing with the Cubs today may not yet be factored into the projections that regularly update, like PECOTA and Fangraphs. For now, this is what the standings look like in the “wisdom of the crowds” crystal ball. Let’s take a look division by division.

MLB: AL East

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

1. 93-69 New York Yankees (91 to 96 wins)
2. 90-72 Boston Red Sox (87 to 92 wins)
3. 81-81 Toronto Blue Jays (78 to 85 wins)
4. 77-85 Tampa Bay Rays (71 to 84 wins)
5. 72-90 Baltimore Orioles (69 to 77 wins)

Three of the five sources have the Yankees winning the AL East, and the other two have the Red Sox taking the division. All five sources have both teams making the playoffs, with one winning the division and the other being the top wild card team each time. If you’re wondering what a J.D. Martinez signing could mean for the Red Sox, you might be surprised that it doesn’t move the needle that much, at least based on projections.

The Red Sox have a strong outfield. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi are both good on both sides of the ball, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. is inconsistent on offense but very good on defense. This leaves the DH spot for J.D. Martinez. The Red Sox already have Hanley Ramirez lined up to play DH. Fangraphs projects Martinez to be worth 1.5 wins more than Ramirez, which doesn’t make up the three-game gap between the Red Sox and Yankees shown above.

Continuing down the standings, the Toronto Blue Jays are in the mix for a wild card spot based on their 81 average wins, but none of the five sources project them to take one of the wild card spots. The Tampa Bay Rays, on the other hand, are expected by PECTOA to win 84 games and take the second wild card. The other four sources have them finishing under .500.

The Orioles are sitting in the basement, projected to win between 69 and 72 MLB games by four of the five sources. Clay Davenport is the outlier, pegging them as a 77-win team, which would be slightly better than last year’s 75-87 squad.

MLB: AL Central

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

1. 98-64 Cleveland Indians (93 to 103 wins)
2. 84-78 Minnesota Twins (81 to 87 wins)
3. 70-92 Chicago White Sox (65 to 73 wins)
4. 67-95 Kansas City Royals (59 to 73 wins)
5. 66-96 Detroit Tigers (61 to 70 wins)

In their final year with Chief Wahoo as their primary logo, Cleveland is expected to cruise to an easy division title, with an average of 98 wins. Clay Davenport and Bleacher Report have them winning 100 or more games, while Fangraphs has them at just 93 wins. They combine a good offense with a steady starting rotation and top-notch bullpen. Their one-two punch of Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco is one of the best starting pitcher duos in baseball.

The Twins don’t look like challengers for the division, but also don’t have any competition coming up from behind them. If the bottom three teams in the AL Central are as bad as they look, the Twins will have an advantage in the wild card race because of all the games they get to play against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers.

Unlike the Houston Astros, it looks like the Chicago White Sox won’t plummet to the depths of the standings while they go through the rebuilding process. The Astros suffered through three straight 100-loss seasons before becoming respectable. The White Sox will likely have a sixth straight losing season, but they won’t lose 100 games, and their farm system was ranked fourth by Baseball America.

Royals fans may object to that 67-win projection because the Royals have a history of outperforming expectations that goes back to their World Series teams in 2014 and 2015. They’ve won more games than would be expected based on their runs scored and runs allowed in each of the last four seasons. Their 80 wins last year was nine more than their projected record.

Then again, they’ve already lost Lorenzo Cain to MLB free agency and maybe without Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas if neither re-signs with the team. Unless Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar (or Ned Yost) are the sources of their baseball magic, the Royals will finish with fewer than 70 wins for the first time since 2010.

After four straight MLB playoff seasons from 2011 to 2014, the Tigers have now finished in last place twice in the last three years. They’re projected to finish at the bottom of the NL Central again this year. Bleacher Report has them losing 101 games, and their average of 66 wins based on all five sources is the lowest in the AL.

MLB: AL West

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

1. 99-63 Houston Astros (96 to 103 wins)
2. 84-78 Los Angeles Angels (80 to 88 wins)
3. 81-81 Seattle Mariners (75 to 83 wins)
4. 80-82 Texas Rangers (77 to 87 wins)
5. 75-87 Oakland Athletics (72 to 77 wins)

Like Cleveland in the Central, Houston is projected to run away with the AL West. Their combined projection of 99 wins is the best in MLB. They took a World Series-winning team and added another reliable starting pitcher in Gerrit Cole and two relievers, Joe Smith and Hector Rondon. Their worst projection is 96 wins (Clay Davenport).

The Angels are one of the below .500 teams from last year with the best chance of making the playoffs this year. Four of the five sources have them winning between 86 and 88 games. PECOTA is the most pessimistic, projecting them to finish below .500 at 80-82. They are the second wild card team according to Fangraphs and Bleacher Report and tied for the second wild card spot according to Clay Davenport and USA Today.

If the projections hold up, the Mariners will miss the playoffs for a 17^th consecutive year, but they’re within a few games of breaking that streak. Only Bleacher Report (75-87) thinks they won’t be in the wild card mix. They project to finish just a single a game ahead of the Rangers, but that’s in large part to the 87 wins that Clay Davenport has for Texas. Every other source has the Rangers below .500.

The A’s are trying to avoid a fourth straight last-place finish, but it doesn’t look good. Their high projection is 77 wins (Fangraphs and PECOTA). Unfortunately, another losing season won’t help their attendance, which has dropped in each of the last three years. Only the Tampa Bay Rays drew fewer fans than Oakland last year, and the Rays just announced their intention to move out of their hideous stadium. The A’s would like to do the same.

MLB: NL East

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

1. 94-68 Washington Nationals (89 to 104 wins)
2. 80-82 New York Mets (75 to 82 wins)
3. 76-86 Philadelphia Phillies (73 to 79 wins)
4. 74-88 Atlanta Braves (71 to 76 wins)
5. 64-98 Miami Marlins (60 to 68 wins)

At 15 games, the Nationals and Padres have the broadest range of projected wins, but one is at the top of their division, and the other is at the bottom of theirs. The 15-game span for the Nationals is a result of PECOTA pegging them with just 89 wins, while Bleacher Report has them as the best team in baseball, with 104 victories. This is a team that won 97 games last year, so it will take some doing to get to 104 wins in 2018. Of course, they will have the luxury of beating up on the rest of their division, where every other team is projected to finish below .500.

The Mets won 70 MLB games last year, and that was two games better than their run-differential would expect. Four of the five sources have them winning between 80 and 82 games. Clay Davenport is more pessimistic, seeing the Mets as a 75-win team. Then again, perhaps a 75-win season would mean that Tim Tebow could get a September call-up.

The Phillies and Braves are on similar stages of the competition cycle and projected to win a similar number of games. The Braves have the number one farm system in baseball, and the Phillies are sixth, according to Baseball America. With the Nationals potentially losing Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy to free agency after this season, the NL East could look very different in the next few seasons.

Down at the bottom of the standings is the dumpster fire known as the Miami Marlins. They are projected to win the fewest games in baseball. The low source has them with 60 wins (USA Today), while Fangraphs is the most optimistic, expecting them to win 68 games.

 MLB: NL West

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

1. 96-66 Los Angeles Dodgers (91 to 99 wins)
2. 86-76 Arizona Diamondbacks (84 to 89 wins)
3. 85-77 Colorado Rockies (78 to 91 wins)
4. 82-80 San Francisco Giants (80 to 84 wins)
5. 68-94 San Diego Padres (58 to 73 wins)

The Dodgers are one of five division winners projected to have a margin of 10 games or more between them and the second place team. Bleacher Report likes them the most, with 99 wins, while Clay Davenport has them down at 91 wins, just barely more than the Rockies (90) and Diamondbacks (89). The Dodgers average projection of 96 wins is the most in the NL.

If the consensus is correct, there will be a tight battle for second place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks come out on top with an average of 86 wins, but the Rockies (85) and Giants (82) aren’t that far behind. The Diamondbacks make the postseason four times among the five sources (including ties for a wild card spot). The Rockies make the postseason three times and the Giants twice.

The Rockies are one of six MLB teams that have a double-digit range in wins. PECOTA seems to hate them, projecting just 78 wins. Clay Davenport and Bleacher Report are much more optimistic, with 90 and 91 wins, respectively. This gap of 13 wins between the high projection and low projection is more than three times the four-win gap for the Giants, who are projected by all five sources to win between 80 and 84 games.

Down at the bottom of the NL West sit the San Diego Padres, looking at a 68-94 record. The Padres won 71 games last year, but their expected record was a brutal 57-105. Their -212 run differential was the worst in baseball, and it wasn’t that close (the Tigers were at -159). Clay Davenport has them in the same ballpark as their expected record last year, with a 58-104 projection. PECOTA analyzes the same roster and sees 15 more wins (73-89).

MLB Wild Card Race contenders

American League Wild Card

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

• 90-72 Boston Red Sox (87 to 92 wins)
• 84-78 Minnesota Twins (81 to 87 wins)
• 84-78 Los Angeles Angels (80 to 88 wins)
• 81-81 Toronto Blue Jays (78 to 85 wins)
• 81-81 Seattle Mariners (75 to 83 wins)
• 80-82 Texas Rangers (77 to 87 wins)
• 77-85 Tampa Bay Rays (71 to 84 wins)

With the caveat that there are plenty of roster moves still to be made, the AL is looking like four titans claiming four playoff spots and a half-dozen lesser teams scrambling for the fifth. The Red Sox project to be the top wild card team, leaving the Twins, Angels, Blue Jays, Mariners, Rangers and long shot Rays fighting it out for the second MLB wild card.

With a low projection of 81 MLB wins, the Twins have the highest floor among these teams. If they can win as many games as they did last year, they’ll be in the mix. The Angels have the highest ceiling, thanks to their 88-win projection from Bleacher Report. The other four teams could end up with a win total in the 70s or 80s. Good health, some luck, perhaps a roster move or two, and any of these teams could jump up to the Twins and Angels tier.

 National League Wild Card

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

• 86-76 St. Louis Cardinals (84 to 88 wins)
• 86-76 Arizona Diamondbacks (84 to 89 wins)
• 85-77 Colorado Rockies (78 to 91 wins)
• 85-77 Milwaukee Brewers (78 to 91 wins)
• 82-80 San Francisco Giants (80 to 84 wins)
• 80-82 New York Mets (75 to 82 wins)

This looks like a dogfight, with four teams within one game of each other and another just a few games back. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks have a floor of 84 wins based on these projections, while the other four teams all have at least one projection in which they finish below .500. On the other hand, the Rockies and Brewers both have at least one prediction in which they win 91 games.

Next: Five under .500 teams from 2017 most likely to make postseason

The Giants look to be much improved from last year’s 64-98 team thanks to a full season from Madison Bumgarner, some offseason free agent acquisitions and improved play by the returning roster members. The Mets are projected to win 10 more games than they won in 2017, but even that wouldn’t be enough to get one of the wild card spots.