MLB Standings: The “wisdom of the crowds” approach

MLB: NL Central

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

1. 91-71 Chicago Cubs (88 to 93 wins)
2. 86-76 St. Louis Cardinals (84 to 88 wins)
3. 85-77 Milwaukee Brewers (78 to 91 wins)
4. 74-88 Pittsburgh Pirates (69 to 77 wins)
5. 72-90 Cincinnati Reds (68 to 74 wins)

The NL Central is projected to be the closest division in the National League. The Cubs are the top team in the division according to four of the five sources, but their lead isn’t nearly as big as the Nationals in the East and the Dodgers in the West. Clay Davenport even has them finishing second in the division to the Milwaukee Brewers, but that was without knowing they would sign Yu Darvish to bolster their starting rotation.

Speaking of the Brewers, they are projected to win the division once and be a wild card team once, so they should be squarely in the mix for a playoff spot. They fall short of the Cardinals projected win total, though, thanks mainly to a 78-win projection from Fangraphs. The Cardinals are tied with the Giants for the narrowest range of wins, with all five sources putting them between 84 and 88 victories.

There’s a big gap between the top three teams in the Central and the bottom two. Pittsburgh looks slightly better than the Reds, which is a significant drop off from where they were a few years ago. Three sources have them with 77 wins, but USA Today (72 wins) and Bleacher Report (69 wins) are not nearly that optimistic.

The Reds could lose 90 or more games and finish in last place for a fourth straight year. They are wasting the incredible production of Joey Votto thanks in large part to a pitching staff that has given up 506 home runs over the last two seasons. That’s 56 more home runs than the next-worst staff. On the bright side, they are giving out Fiona the Hippo Bobblehead dolls on June 19, so there’s that.