MLB Standings: The “wisdom of the crowds” approach

 MLB: NL West

Averaged Standings (with win range for each team in parenthesis):

1. 96-66 Los Angeles Dodgers (91 to 99 wins)
2. 86-76 Arizona Diamondbacks (84 to 89 wins)
3. 85-77 Colorado Rockies (78 to 91 wins)
4. 82-80 San Francisco Giants (80 to 84 wins)
5. 68-94 San Diego Padres (58 to 73 wins)

The Dodgers are one of five division winners projected to have a margin of 10 games or more between them and the second place team. Bleacher Report likes them the most, with 99 wins, while Clay Davenport has them down at 91 wins, just barely more than the Rockies (90) and Diamondbacks (89). The Dodgers average projection of 96 wins is the most in the NL.

If the consensus is correct, there will be a tight battle for second place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks come out on top with an average of 86 wins, but the Rockies (85) and Giants (82) aren’t that far behind. The Diamondbacks make the postseason four times among the five sources (including ties for a wild card spot). The Rockies make the postseason three times and the Giants twice.

The Rockies are one of six MLB teams that have a double-digit range in wins. PECOTA seems to hate them, projecting just 78 wins. Clay Davenport and Bleacher Report are much more optimistic, with 90 and 91 wins, respectively. This gap of 13 wins between the high projection and low projection is more than three times the four-win gap for the Giants, who are projected by all five sources to win between 80 and 84 games.

Down at the bottom of the NL West sit the San Diego Padres, looking at a 68-94 record. The Padres won 71 games last year, but their expected record was a brutal 57-105. Their -212 run differential was the worst in baseball, and it wasn’t that close (the Tigers were at -159). Clay Davenport has them in the same ballpark as their expected record last year, with a 58-104 projection. PECOTA analyzes the same roster and sees 15 more wins (73-89).