The remaining free agent starters versus those on the board for the Philadelphia Phillies.
“Phils pursuing veteran starter to bolster rotation” read the headline on MLB.com on Feb. 10. A graphic and video posted with the article suggested that Franklyn Kilome was in the mix for a starting rotation spot for the Philadelphia Phillies. The two matters seemed only tenuously related as Kilome is a four-year minor leaguer with 69 game appearances under his belt.
The article in question by Mark Feinsand went on to suggest the Phils are “aggressive in their pursuit” of a veteran starter, but “there’s no indication that they’re near the finish line.” Feinsand then mentioned just about every remaining quality starter on the free agent market as possibilities for the team. (Yu Darvish was at about that time reported was signed by the Cubs, leaving nine starters ranked by ESPN in the top 50 free agents this winter.)
Three of remaining starters have been recommended in this cyberspace as good, reasonably inexpensive fits for the Phils (Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, and Chris Tillman), but what is Philadelphia’s team management actually up to? Are they really going to find a veteran to sign to a short-term contract as Feinsand says, or are they going to go with the young pitchers they have and hope?
What numbers are the Philadelphia Phillies looking at in comparing their people to the free agents? The nine starters left on the market Feb. 11 had an average career WHIP of 1.28 and an average of 231.2 MLB games pitched. We’re going to take wins and losses out of this comparison because the young starters on the Phils have primarily pitched for losing teams, if not entirely so in the minors. Also, interestingly, MLB WHIP tracks ESPN’s rankings of the remaining starters pretty well.
We’re also going to subtract Aaron Nola from the Phils equation since he definitely has a spot in the rotation. The remaining hurlers vying for four starter slots include seven players with MLB experience and two minor leaguers, listed last here – Zach Eflin, Jerad Eickhoff, Mark Leiter, Ben Lively, Nick Pivetta, Jake Thompson, Vince Velasquez, Thomas Eshelman, and Kilome. Their average WHIP is 1.35. Their average MLB game experience? Only 26 games (33.4 if you remove the two minor leaguers from Philly’s list).
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Only two the those in the list above have a personal WHIP lower than the average of the remaining free agent starters, Jerad Eickhoff (1.27) and Thomas Eshelman (1.17, but in the minors). The Phillies, in other words, badly need at least one veteran starter.
So, if you’re Phillies general manager Matt Klentak, what do you do? The removal of Darvish from the market only dropped the average 2017 salary of the remaining free agents $50,000, to $10.5 million. This says nothing, however, about specific negotiations the fan is never privy to. Are there on-going talks between the Phils and the agent for a relative steal like Alex Cobb? Are there real talks with the agent for the expensive Jake Arrieta?
We’ll never know the answers to those last questions until someone announces that Philadelphia has signed a free agent starter. And at this point, it’s looking more likely that any such signing will come after spring training camp opens, not before it, if at all.
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If a veteran starter isn’t signed by the end of spring training, however, that says the Phils are willing to sacrifice “for the future” even competing for a wild card slot this year. They will be only hoping in regards to pitching.