Los Angeles Dodgers and Chase Utley face uphill battle with Father Time

The Los Angeles Dodgers signed Chase Utley to a two-year contract despite the diminished production from older players recently.

In the slowest offseason ever, there was a blip of news on Tuesday when the Los Angeles Dodgers re-signed veteran free agent Chase Utley. Hearing that the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Utley, I thought, ‘huh.’ Hearing they signed him to a two-year deal made me think, ‘what?’

Utley will be 39 years old this season. From all accounts, he’s in terrific shape (“the best shape of his life!”). He has a tremendous work ethic. He’s allegedly a great guy in the clubhouse. Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw said of Utley,

"“He might not be the player he was 10 years ago, but he’s still a very valuable asset to have. I don’t think there’s a guy in here that wouldn’t be excited if he’s around.”"

There’s no objective measurement for being a great guy in the clubhouse, but we can measure what a player does on the field. In that regard, Utley wasn’t bad last year, even at 38 years old. He was worth 1.3 WAR in 353 plate appearances. For his $2 million salary, that’s useful enough.

Unfortunately, the track record for older players is not good and has been getting worse. There was a time when older players were regularly putting up useful seasons, but their production has dwindled recently. In 2017, players 35 and older averaged just 0.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances, which was the worst season for this age group in the last 30 years.

Older players were at their best right around the turn of the millennium. From 1998 to 2003, players 35 and older averaged at least 1.6 WAR per 600 plate appearances every year. They haven’t reached that level since. In a potentially related note, MLB started mandatory testing for PEDs with punishments attached for the first time in 2004, but that’s a story for another time.

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The numbers are direr for players as old as Utley will be this season. Even during the booming era for older players, it was rare for a 39-year-old to be productive or even get much playing time. In the six seasons from 1998 to 2003, players 39 and older accounted for 34 seasons with at least 200 plate appearances. Over the last six years, from 2012 to 2017, there were 23 such seasons.

Last year, there were only two players 39 or older who had 200 plate appearances: Ichiro Suzuki and Carlos Beltran. Actually, they were the only position players 39 or older to have any plate appearances. The other old fogies were pitchers.

Both Beltran and Ichiro were well below average hitters and finished below replacement level. Beltran retired in the offseason and Ichiro hasn’t been able to find a job with an MLB team, even though he’s said he’d like to play until he’s 50. He may have to return to Japan to make that happen.

Utley will try to resist age-related decline, but the odds will be increasingly against him during this two-year deal. Like last year, Utley will mostly play second base, where he’ll back up Logan Forsythe. He’ll also get time at first base, behind Cody Bellinger. Like last year, he’ll rarely face lefties (only eight percent of his plate appearances came against southpaws in 2017).

If you’re looking for optimism, I can find some. One of the things Utley did best last season was come off the bench to pinch hit. In those situations, he hit .273/.442/.424 in 43 plate appearances. Pinch-hitting is notoriously streaky, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be that good this season, but he does have a good history of pinch-hitting in his career.

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In 139 career plate appearances as a pinch-hitter, he’s hit .281/.403/.491. That’s a very impressive 143 wRC+, meaning 43 percent better than average after adjusting for league and ballpark effects. Of the 198 players with 100 or more career pinch-hitting plate appearances since his rookie year (2003), Utley ranks sixth. Dodger fans can hope he’ll continue to be an asset coming off the bench and provide whatever mysterious clubhouse mojo he’s known for.