Texas Rangers: Fate of 2018 and beyond in the hands of players under age 25
The Texas Rangers are not expected to contend in 2018. Contend or not, the upcoming season will play as a showcase for their emerging young talent as it pertains to the future well-being of the team.
Spring is in the air. While most of us are still shoveling snow or hoping our car can withstand freezing temperatures, pitchers and catchers are reporting to Arizona and Florida warmth. That is the case for the Texas Rangers. Pitchers and catchers reported to Rangers camp in Surprise, AZ on Wednesday. The pitching staff of the Texas Rangers has many new faces that will prompt a close eye; however, the main attraction will come as the bats arrive at spring training.
Spring training is a time for extreme optimism. Records are non-factor, statistics are generally favorable, and there are plenty of players to look forward to following, whether major leaguers or prospects. If you’re an optimistic Rangers fan, brace yourself, because this article will not conclude in a World Series prediction or even a playoff prediction. I wouldn’t call 2018 a rebuilding year, but I will call it a building year. The upcoming season is not about established players such as Adrian Beltre, or Elvis Andrus, or Cole Hamels. 2018 is about the Rangers future core.
The present and the future of the Texas Rangers will be dictated by a group of four players that have a combined six years of big league experience, and none of the four have reached the age of 25 — so, when I say “dictated,” I mean there is no guarantee of success for any of the four players, and therefore, the Rangers. That is why the upcoming season is so important. 2018 is a major “prove it” year for Willie Calhoun, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, and Rougned Odor. Here’s what we need to see from each in the upcoming season:
Willie Calhoun
What to like
Calhoun’s size does not emit power; however, power is expected to be perhaps his greatest tool. He compares to Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor—similar in size, similar in power, but better bat control. Calhoun has progressed a minor league level per year. He knocked 27 homers at Double-A in 2016 and followed that up with a 31 home run season at Triple-A in 2017. He’s proved his power, though, what excites the Texas Rangers the most is his overall production at the plate.
Between Triple-A Oklahoma City with the Dodgers and Triple-A Round Rock with the Rangers, Willie Calhoun posted a clean .300 batting average, slugged .572, and reached base 57% of the time. Additionally, he nearly matched his walks with his strikeouts, walking 42 times to his 61 whiffs.
In summary, the man can flat-out hit. Every major league roster has room for guys that can flat-out hit.
What he needs to prove in 2018
Calhoun is a natural second baseman. Despite Rougned Odor performing at an atrocious level in 2017, the Texas Rangers are not anywhere close to giving up on Odor and handing second base to Calhoun.
Calhoun will have to learn to play left field in a major league capacity if he wants any substantial big league time this season. He has the athleticism to do it. He proved capable of playing a decent left field in his brief time with Texas last season.
Of course, his bat can easily sway the Rangers to be more lenient towards his defense. If Calhoun rakes this spring, it won’t matter if he drops five flay balls and pulls a Jose Canseco, he will be in the Rangers opening day lineup.
We see teams sacrifice defense for hitting all the time. The Cubs do it with Kyle Schwarber. The Orioles do it with Mark Trumbo. Heck, even Adam Dunn played some outfield to get his bat in the lineup. Willie Calhoun is more athletic than each of those guys. Therefore, he should have no trouble managing a new position. AS LONG AS HE HITS.
Nomar Mazara
What to like
Mazara is a professional hitter. He possesses plate discipline, he hits the ball to all fields, and he is an outstanding situational hitter. He’s earned the trust of Manager Jeff Banister, as Mazara spent almost all of 2017 hitting either 3rd or 5th in the lineup.
Let me reiterate, Nomar Mazara is 22 years old and he his hitting 3rd almost every day in a major league lineup. Think about that. Amazingly, Mazara has not even scraped his potential.
Nomara Mazara compares to Rangers all-timer, Rafael Palmeiro. Like Palmeiro, Mazara has a swing that looks effortless. It appears he’s barely swinging, yet the ball flies off his bat. Mazara has moonshot capabilities, something Palmeiro was not necessarily known for. Based on the eye test, Mazara is right there with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge when it comes to consistent exit velocity off the bat.
What he needs to prove in 2018
Plate discipline can play as a strength for Mazara; however, it can also play as a weakness. Often times, he will see too many pitches.
The 3rd through 5th places in the lineup warrant aggressiveness. Those are the most opportunistic spots in the lineup. Teams expect players in that lineup range to drive the most runners in and to hit the most home runs. Mazara was outstanding with runners in scoring position last season, as he did notch 101 RBI. But a more aggressive approach in 2018 will lead to more RBI and more home runs. Bottom line, the Rangers don’t need him to walk, they need him to drive runners in.
Secondly, Mazara needs to be more consistent. It makes no sense for a swing as smooth as Mazara’s to be so streaky. Just look at his month-to-month batting averages:
April—.229
May—.340
June—.202
July—.205
August—.287
Sept/Oct—.237
If you watch him play routinely, then the above numbers will seem very deceiving. Mazara’s toolbox is much too packed to allow for that kind of inconsistency. He has the “it” factor that can make him a top-tier MLB hitter. The Texas Rangers need to see Nomar Mazara take a step towards the top-tier in 2018.
Joey Gallo
What to like
Two words describe Joey Gallo: Unparalleled power. Gallo’s gallant power is well-publicized; it has been his mantra ever since he was drafted. He’s played only one full MLB season, but his power is undeniable, and I feel confident in saying that he has the potential to be one of the greatest power hitters in the history of the game.
Gallo hit 41 home runs in 145 games last season. He ranked fifth in MLB in long balls. Aaron Judge’s power stole the show last season, but Joey Gallo was not too far behind. Gallo to Judge is an excellent comparison in my opinion. Each possesses sensational pop, while each struggle immensely with strikeouts. The difference between the two to date: Judge experienced a season of MVP consideration, while Gallo was merely a cool highlight reel and was consumed by fans as a fraction of what he truly is.
The point is, if Aaron Judge can break the scene and finish second in AL MVP voting, Joey Gallo has that same capability. Both Judge and Gallo should be an exhilarating watch in 2018, individually and comparatively.
What he needs to prove in 2018
It may not be wise to mention MVP and Joey Gallo in the same sentence. The Texas Rangers would obviously love an MVP run from Gallo; however, they have their sights set on smaller accomplishments first.
The huge knock on Gallo is his proneness to the strikeout. Gallo struck out 196 times in 449 at-bats in 2017. He fanned in 44% of at-bats. That is not good.
Gallo must cut down on the strikeouts in the upcoming season. More contact equals more hits, and more hits equal a higher batting average, a higher on-base percentage, more runs, more RBI, etc. If Gallo can increase his batting average from .209 to even .240, then the Rangers will be ecstatic.
Improved contact from Joey Gallo is the offseason priority, and it will remain a priority until he gets it right. The MLB has enough all-or-nothing hitters. The power will come naturally for Gallo, but if he wants to take the next step, he’ll need to cut down on the strikeouts and put the ball in play.
Rougned Odor
What to like
There is a definite theme among these four players–they can all impress in the home run category. None try harder to hit home runs than Rougned Odor. Odor swings at maximum effort whether the count is 2-0, 3-2, or 0-2. His overly aggressive approach works well enough for him to be labeled as one of the most powerful second basemen in baseball. Odor put forth back-to-back seasons of 30+ home runs. He can look completely lost in the first two games of a series and then strike for two home runs in the finale. He is the Rangers’ wildcard.
Rougned Odor is also a great clubhouse guy. For a Texas Rangers team that will likely be shipping off its veterans sometime in the near future, it’s nice to have an emerging player like Rougned Odor to have left behind. Odor is fiery, he takes the game very seriously (maybe too seriously at times), and he has the drive to play each and every day. He proved so in each of the last two seasons, playing 150 games in 2016, and all 162 games in 2017.
What he needs to prove in 2018
Like Mazara, Odor’s strength is also his weakness. In this case, Odor’s aggressiveness is much more of a problem than it is a solution. His home run total from 2017 was his only positive statistic. His numbers were primarily horrible. Here are some horrible statistics worth noting:
WAR: -0.2
OBP: .252
SLG: .397
BA: .204
It’s no secret that Rougned Odor is not one for a high batting average. But .204? Seriously? I don’t care if you hit 50 home runs to go along with it; there is no room for a .204 batting average in any major league lineup unless you’re a National League pitcher. And I marvel at Odor’s 30 home runs from last season. How does someone hit that many homers, yet, slug for only .397? It just doesn’t make sense.
Odor will have to make more contact. He and Joey Gallo are very similar in flaw. Gallo, however, can draw walks, play better defense, and knock the ball over the fence more often. Gallo carries value. Odor, not so much. At least not last year.
The Texas Rangers have a plan for Odor this spring. Their goal is to stress the different quadrants of the strike zone to Odor. If Odor can narrow his swing zone to, first of all, the strike zone, but more so the quadrant that is most generous to him, then he will find more frequent success. Like most left-handed hitters, Odor likes the ball out over the plate. He can catch up to an inside fastball, but he struggles mightily against low-and-in breaking balls. He needs to adjust in 2018.
Next: What can Adam Wainwright bring in 2018
MLB employs one-tool players, but usually not for long. Rougned Odor is currently a one-tool player. He has power but lacks in everything else. The Rangers invested a lot of money in Odor, and they have no plans to run from him now. A repeat season from 2017 may test the team’s patience to result in a rash decision.