Phillies: New rotation target for 2018
A starting pitcher might be available for the Phillies, he’s a southpaw, but will general manager Matt Klentak have something to offer that the other organization will have interest in?
One portsider:
While the Philadelphia Phillies continue waiting for a bargain, the cost for Yu Darvish dropped to $126 million over six campaigns. Ergo, it lowers the asking prices of other starters and leaves the Chicago Cubs without a rotation slot for a hopeful left-hander.
IN OTHER WORDS: “There is no medicine like hope, no incentive so great, and no tonic so powerful as expectation of something tomorrow.” – Orison Swett Marden
Darvish was the first signing of the top four pitchers available, and Scott Boras represents the top three remaining. But the best unsigned starters also affected franchises willing to trade a rotation piece because they raised their anticipated return accordingly and held out for better proposals.
Unfortunately, some front offices want a moundsman for their starting staff, not just bargain hunters. Meanwhile, other clubs went in another direction to set their rosters and are now out of the picture for Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn.
Without question, though, late movement tends to benefit the industry vultures: those teams with the reputation of exploiting a valuable asset. Yes, previously overpriced talent still available might have to choose between accepting less than they’re worth or sitting out half a season.
Klentak’s situation is unusual because he has the money and the openings, but he also has young in-house candidates. That stated, he won’t hesitate for a bargain, but what is his most significant need? A lefty!
With Darvish under contract, no free-agent pitcher will exceed his deal dollarwise or lengthwise, and the Cubs now have an extra starter: left-hander Mike Montgomery. But general managing 101 teaches execs to underbid for a player where a franchise has a talent overage.
Since Chicago (NL) doesn’t have many weaknesses, interested organizations will have a difficult task: finding a piece the northsiders will want. But a leadoff man is a possible hole in their offense. Roman Quinn?
Cubs and Phillies leadoff hitters OBA (on-base average):
- Jon Jay (free agent): .325 (77/237) and a .296 Avg.
- Ben Zobrist: .330 (60/182) and a .232 Avg.
- Kyle Schwarber: .312 (54/173) with a .211 Avg.
- Cesar Hernandez: .371 (212/572) with a .294 Avg.
Spitballing:
Financially, the Cubbies are at $183 million or $14 million under the competitive balance threshold. But if they unload a bad contract along with Montgomery, they will have more dollars available to spend in mid-July as an option due to injury or limited production from a regular in their batting order. They’re all-in for ’18!
Regarding the five starters for Chicago (NL), they have four signed through 2020 with a contract, a club option or the arbitration process. On the other hand, the fifth pitcher Darvish can opt out after 2019, when he’s 33. A need for ’20?
In mid-December, the Cubs inked left-hander Drew Smyly for 2018-19 at $10 million total, but he had undergone TJ surgery last July. So, he could miss most or all of the summer ahead but–relatively speaking–is only a cheap backup plan for 2019.
Montgomery, 28, was a swingman last season and again will be one because of the added starters. However, he wants a guarantee of relieving or starting because of injury concerns regarding back-and-forth usage. Ergo, a team problem!
The southpaw is slightly above the MLB minimum but will be arbitration eligible for ’19: He has four years of team control remaining. But prying him loose will be extremely difficult.
Of the portsider’s 14 starts, his last six were in the second half: 29 frames, 9 earned runs and a 3-2 record with a 2.79 ERA. Granted, he averaged nearly five innings per start but also had 11 relief appearances mixed in. And he has a 92-mph fastball compared to the 93-mph average in the majors.
To sum up, Klentak has called his contemporary with Chicago regarding Montgomery, and prospects with salary relief could lead to a deal. But keep in mind, the lefty isn’t 23; he’s 28. Unfortunately, what wrinkle will the GM be facing? The competition!
Hectoring:
If you’ve ever lived or died with a closer, you are familiar with the current tormentor: Hector Neris. On the other hand, nerve-racking firemen are more common than their lights-out counterparts.
Yes, Neris makes the faithful nervous, and it’s contagious. But he saved 19 of 19 opportunities in the second half with a 2.48 ERA. Is he improving?
Over time, the Phillies have had top-tier closers and firemen who were pyromaniac-like. Is Neris the worst? No, nowhere near that.
In 1993, the red pinstripes had Mitch Williams, and he didn’t make you nervous. No, Wild Thing made you crazy! You almost heard Harry Houdini applauding from the beyond with every save!
ONLY YOU: “I pitch like my hair is on fire.” – Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams
Spending money wisely or foolishly is often an after-the-fact question with few exceptions, and being well under the competitive balance threshold is like an oasis in the desert. But Klentak–not you–will have to live with his decision in 2023, whether that superstar will be 30 or 37 years-of-age.
Well, the best way to get questions is apparently having someone start with the first one. So, here it is. If Klentak can only sign one top-dollar free agent in 2018, 2019 or 2020, who would you want?
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
* 2016 stats ** Free agent
*** Would replace Neris as closer if the thinkable happens.
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Phillies pitching targets:
- Montgomery, 28.5: 14 Starts, 44 Gms., 130 2/3 Inn., 7-8, 1 Hold, a 3.38 ERA, a 4.07 FIP, a 4.35 xFIP, a 4.46 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
- *Smyly, 28.5: 30 Gms., 175 1/3 Inn., 7-12, a 4.88 ERA, a 4.49 FIP, a 4.51 xFIP, a 4.16 SIERA, a 2.0 fWAR and a 1.27 WHIP.
Cubs leadoff hitters:
- **Jay, almost 33: 141 Gms., 433 PA, a .296 Avg., a .374 OBP, a .375 SLG, a .079 ISO, a .368 BABIP, 2 HR, 34 RBI, a .749 OPS and a 1.6 fWAR.
- Zobrist, 36.5: 128 Gms., 496 PA, a .232 Avg., a .318 OBP, a .375 SLG, a .143 ISO, a .251 BABIP, 12 HR, 50 RBI, a .693 OPS and a 0.3 fWAR.
- Schwarber, almost 25: 129 Gms., 486 PA, a .211 Avg., a .315 OBP, a .467 SLG, a .256 ISO, a .244 BABIP, 30 HR, 59 RBI, a .782 OPS and a 1.5 fWAR.
Phillies leadoff hitter:
- Hernandez, 27.5: 128 Gms., 577 PA, a .294 Avg., a .373 OBP, a .421 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .353 BABIP, 9 HR, 34 RBI, a .793 OPS, 3.3 fWAR, 15 SB, 5 CS and a 6.0 Spd.
Next: Phillies' Unique Backup Plan
Phillies relievers:
- Neris, 28.5: 74 Gms., 74 2/3 Inn., 26 Saves, 3 BS, 4 Holds, a 3.01 ERA, a 3.71 FIP, a 4.21 xFIP, a 3.53 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
- ***Luis Garcia, 31: 66 Gms., 71 1/3 Inn., 14 Holds, 2 Saves, a 2.65 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, a 3.89 xFIP, a 3.90 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.