Eric Hosmer: Will his big contract with the San Diego Padres be worth it?
By Jason Evans
The San Diego Padres waited and waited and got their man in Eric Hosmer. Will it be worth it?
The San Diego Padres waited. Eric Hosmer waited. The MLB free agency market waited. Finally, the wait is over, and the Padres agreed to the biggest deal in their franchise’s history with the 28-year-old first baseman.
The #Padres got their man. Eric Hosmer is their new first baseman. https://t.co/ox6tAoeDVe
— Kevin Acee (@sdutKevinAcee) February 18, 2018
Eric Hosmer total package: 8 years, $144 million with opt out after five years. He will be paid $105,million the first 5 years
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 18, 2018
Hosmer’s signing will move Wil Myers to left. The last time Myers was in the outfield was in 2015 when he played center and was a -7 DRS. Hosmer last season hit .318 with an .882 OPS. For his career, he hit .284 with a .781 OPS.
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For comparison, let’s take a look at two guys who also moved tonight in CJ Cron and Corey Dickerson. Dickerson for his career has hit .280 with an .829 OPS. CJ Cron has hit .262 with a.756 OPS. Dickerson was DFA’d by the Rays for Cron and will make a little over $5 million.
Two other first baseman who are still free agents are Lucas Duda and Logan Morrison. Duda is a career .242 hitter with a .796 OPS. Morrison is at .245 with a .763 OPS. Hosmer among this group has the highest batting average but is just third in OPS.
Myers is set to make just $4.5 million this year and $5.5 in 2019. However, his salary jumps to $22.5 million from 2020-2022. Hosmer and Myers combined in 2020 will make $43.5 million. They could have gotten similar production from other players for a much cheaper rate.
The San Diego Padres mindset is that Hosmer can be to them what Jayson Werth was to the Nationals. Werth won a World Series with the Phillies two years before free agency. Hosmer did two years prior with the Royals. Werth provided a veteran presence to a club that had Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg on the way. Hosmer can be the guy with the Padres having a top five farm system and plenty of arms and bats a couple of years away, with the first wave just coming with Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Austin Hedges and Dinelson Lamet.
Did the Padres overpay? Probably. They could’ve signed Duda for cheaper or possibly traded for Dickerson to play left and kept Myers at first. Neither would’ve moved the needle-like Hosmer does.
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This signing may only be worth it if the San Diego Padres core develops around Eric Hosmer like they think it will over the next few years. If they don’t, they may be stuck with a high percentage of their payroll at a position where they could’ve gotten similar production on the cheap.