Seattle Mariners: Top 10 Rookie-Eligible Prospects for 2018
We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the Seattle Mariners!
Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Seattle Mariners.
This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of 2017 record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.
The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!
Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.
System overview
Last year, I mentioned that Jerry Dipoto had never had a chance to put his imprint on a minor league system. Now, perhaps we can remove the thought that the Angels’ farm system issues were completely due to forced moves to compete from ownership as the thought had been previously.
Dipoto took a system that was a lower-tier system last year and traded away three of the top four players. Then the Seattle Mariners saw a rough year of development and injuries across their entire farm system.
The Mariners have the definitive bottom farm system in the game right now, with really only one player who even merited consideration for my top 125, but that did not make the top 100. A very good international crop this season and a solid draft class will be key to the start to the Mariners rebound in their minor league system.
Let’s take a look at that system….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Eric Filia, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/6/1992 (25)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Modesto Nuts
2017 Stats: .326/.407/.434, 567 PA, 5 HR, 9 SB, 65/45 BB/K
Info: In spite of his advanced age, Filia very feasibly would have been much higher on this list had he not been suspended in January for the first 50 games of 2018 due to a second failed drug test.
Filia was originally a 20th round draft pick out of UCLA, a strong outfielder with a strong frame on a shorter stature (listed 6′, but appears a bit shorter). Filia jumped onto the national scene in 2013 as a sophomore on UCLA’s national championship team. He tore up his shoulder the summer after that big year and missed the entire 2014 season recovering from surgery.
Filia has a tremendous stroke that is tailor-made to pound the gaps and rarely strikes out, hitting for an impressive average
While recovering from surgery, Filia was caught plagiarizing a paper, and he was suspended from school for an entire year. He had to convince his coach to get back onto the team, but once he did, he showed very disciplined approach at the plate and a very good skill putting the bat on the ball.
Filia has shown that exceptional plate discipline as a pro, with 117 walks to 71 strikeouts in all his minor league stops, including the Arizona Fall League. He’s also hit .344/.428/.468.
Filia is not a guy with elite defensive skills in the outfield, though he could be a solid left fielder. He’s also not a guy who will hit 30 home runs at any point. However, Filia has a tremendous stroke that is tailor-made to pound the gaps and rarely strikes out, hitting for an impressive average.
Once Filia returns from suspension, he’ll likely be at AA, and if he can hit the way he has, he’ll likely get some run at the major league level by the end of the season.
9. Matt Festa, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/11/1993 (25)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Modesto Nuts
2017 Stats: 42 G, 1 GS, 69 2/3 IP, 6 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.5% BB, 34% K
Info: Festa was a senior sign out of small-school East Stroudsburg University in Pennsylvania, drafted in the 7th round in 2016 by the Seattle Mariners. As with most senior sign types, he was assumed to be a high-floor, low-ceiling type.
That may have to be adjusted with Festa. After a pro debut, where he threw 60 1/3 innings across 14 games, 8 of them starts, with a 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.5% walk rate, and 22.9% strikeout rate.
Festa took a redshirt season, and was older as he entered pro ball, but much of that was due to his arm recovering from health issues during college. Festa saw his fastball reach the mid-90s in his draft season, but his secondary stuff was more about his control of his pitches than the true movement of them.
The Mariners moved the righty to the bullpen to get him to the majors quicker. In 2017, in a hitter’s league in high-A, the move paid off as Festa’s slider improved such that Baseball America named it the best slider in the entire system.
Festa works in the mid-90s as a reliever, topping out around 96-97, with excellent control on a late-breaking slider. He could have a future as an elite reliever due to his plus control and plus slider along with an excellent fastball.
Festa needs work in the upper minors and will likely open 2018 in AA, but it would not surprise if he found his way to the big leagues by the end of the season.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Nick Rumbelow, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/6/1991 (26)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Trenton Thunder, AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
2017 Stats: 25 G, 40 1/3 IP, 1.12 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 7.2% BB, 29.4% K
Info: With health, Rumbelow would already be an established dominant reliever at the major league level, having showed well in a 17 game MLB audition in 2015 in just his second full professional season.
Rumbelow works with a mid-90s fastball from his slight 6′, 190-200 pound frame, and he pairs it with a hard curve that hitters rarely can do anything with in their favor. He has an ability to generate tremendous swing and miss rate on the curve.
If he can stay healthy, Rumbelow could find himself in a big league job coming out of spring training. He’s a reliever profile without the likelihood of being a backend guy, but he could have a solid career as a middle guy, and that could start in 2018.
7. Juan Querecuto, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/21/2000 (17)
2017 teams/levels played for: None
2017 Stats: None
Info: Querecuto’s brother made his major league debut in 2016 and his father played in the minor leagues as well, so he received very high marks for his natural baseball feel before being signed by the Mariners out of Venezuela this summer.
While he has a tall frame for a shortstop at 6’3″, he has a more narrow shoulder and hip base that should prevent him from adding too much muscle and outgrowing the shortstop position. With his above-average arm and elite release and “feel” at the position, Querecuto’s lack of blazing speed should not prevent him from sticking at shortstop.
With his above-average arm and elite release and “feel” at the position, Querecuto’s lack of blazing speed should not prevent him from sticking at shortstop
Offensively, that speed is more of an issue, though once again, he uses elite baseball IQ to still provide quality base running and get more stolen bases than his raw speed numbers would indicate. He is not a guy who will likely grow into big over-the-fence power, but he has a quality bat path and uses gaps well, so he should rack up plenty of doubles and triples.
Querecuto may not be a future fantasy baseball star, but he is the kind of guy who will have a ton of value on the field for his team.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Joe Rizzo, 3B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/31/1998 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Clinton LumberKings, high-A Modesto Nuts
2017 Stats: .251/.349/.344, 501 PA, 7 HR, 3 SB, 64/121 BB/K
Info: One of the big concerns coming out of high school for Rizzo in 2016 was his size at 5’9″. If he moves off of third base, he really has to move up the defensive spectrum, as he really cannot move down the spectrum to first base at his height.
The Seattle Mariners weren’t worried about that, drafting Rizzo in the second round out of high school in New Jersey, and he’s handled his position defensively very well ever since, struggling with some issues of rushing throws, but showing good range and solid instincts at the third base position.
At the plate, Rizzo’s size makes a future as a big power hitter unlikely, but he has a very compact, quick swing that shows above average raw power, though it is best suited for pounding the gaps rather than swinging for over-the-fence power.
Rizzo’s been noted for his struggles with keeping his body in best shape, so he will need to be on top of that as he’s advancing through the Seattle Mariners system, but he should open the 2018 season at high-A at 20 years old, so he is progressing well through the system.
5. Julio Rodriguez, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/29/2000 (17)
2017 teams/levels played for: None
2017 Stats: None
Info: The well-developed 6’3″ 205-220 pound teenager was considered among the top prospects in the entire 2017 July 2nd class, ranked at or near the top 5 in the end after being considered the top talent by multiple places in the winter before the 2017 season.
The Seattle Mariners see Rodriguez as a guy with a right field profile with plus raw power and an above-average arm. His natural swing has easy raw power that could develop into plus-plus power as he ages.
(Rodriguez’s) natural swing has easy raw power that could develop into plus-plus power as he ages
Rodriguez reminded many evaluators of current Chicago White Sox prospect Eloy Jimenez with his easy power but possible bad body issues. Thus far Jimenez has held off any developmental issues that would have caused extra thickness, especially in his lower half, restricting him to DH-only status.
This will be the biggest concern for Rodriguez as he likely gets his pro debut in 2018 in the states, likely opening with the Mariners’ Arizona Rookie League club.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Braden Bishop, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/22/1993 (24)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Modesto Nuts, AA Arkansas Travelers
2017 Stats: .306/.393/.413, 557 PA, 3 HR, 22 SB, 60/80 BB/K
Info: Bishop turned down the Atlanta Braves out of high school to attend the University of Washington, where the Seattle Mariners selected him in the 3rd round in 2015.
Bishop jumped immediately to short-season A-ball, where he hit .320 in his draft season with Everett. He jumped through the A-ball levels in his pro debut in 2016, hitting .273 with excellent defense, but struggles with his power stroke, slugging just .326 on the season.
Bishop has tremendous athleticism and works well in center field as a double-plus defender, and he has enough arm to handle any defensive spot
Bishop has tremendous athleticism and works well in center field as a double-plus defender, and he has enough arm to handle any defensive spot. Bishop has a good feel for the bat, able to make consistent contact, though he has not filled out well into his frame.
Bishop has a profile as a solid 4th outfielder at this point without any further development, but if he can find a hair more power, he could be a legitimate starting outfielder at the major league level.
After hitting for a .336 average and .417 OBP in 31 AA games, the Seattle Mariners could push Bishop up all the way to AAA this season, but it would also make sense for him to establish his power in AA before moving up to AAA.
Either way, he’s been a guy this spring who has been visible in his #4Mom campaign to raise money for Alzheimer’s research. Please take a moment to read the story behind his efforts and consider giving as possible!
3. Sam Carlson, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/3/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: Arizona Rookie League Mariners
2017 Stats: 2 G, 2 GS, 3 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 0/3 BB/K
Info: One of the blessings and curses of cold weather baseball states is that they can produce some of the best talent that rarely gets seen. Carlson was a prime example in 2017.
Considered a strong performer after the summer showcase before his senior year, the Minnesota winter delayed the start of his prep season until many other prep players had well over a month of playing time in. Then Carlson took the hill and began wow-ing scouts with exceptional feel for his pitches and a bit more growth from the summer to a sturdy 6’4″ and nearly 200 pounds filling out the frame.
The Seattle Mariners counted themselves blessed to snag Carlson in the 2nd round and protected his arm with just 3 pro innings after a late start to his high school season, wanting to get time with their instructional team more than game time with Carlson in 2017.
When Carlson is on his best game, he has heavy weight on his mid-90s fastball with late movement and a good plane as he stays on top of his pitches. He also gets similar late break from his slider that gives hitters a similar look until the final break, leading to plenty of swing and miss.
What sets Carlson apart and could lead to him having an extremely bright future is his feel for his changeup, which is quite advanced for a high school draftee. He’ll likely show even more of the pitch this season, and it’s got the potential to be a plus to double-plus pitch.
Carlson should open his first full season in the Seattle Mariners system in extended spring, but with advanced feel and good control, the Mariners could push Carlson similar to the way the Atlanta Braves pushed Kolby Allard straight to low-A in 2016 with a similar low amount of pro innings in his draft season.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Evan White, 1B/OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/26/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: short season A-ball Everett AquaSox
2017 Stats: .277/.345/.532, 55 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, 6/6 BB/K
Info: Typically, a first baseman taken with the 17th overall pick would lead to eye rolls from many evaluators, who would then mention how much a first base prospect will have to hit just to have any value.
Cody Bellinger first showed it last season, and White could show it this season with the Seattle Mariners system after being their first round selection this past summer that a premium defender at first base with other batting skills could provide more than adequate value at the position.
It’s not that White won’t ever hit for power, but he has an advanced hit tool currently with excellent feel for the zone, which will give him value at the plate as a hitter who could put up seasons of .280/.350/.450 with a ton of doubles as that home run power comes as a pro hitter.
White also brings the unique value of being an above-average center fielder when he’s not playing first base, where he’s arguably a 70 or better glove on the 20-to-80 scouting scale already. That sort of defensive flexibility and athleticism is rare for a first baseman.
The Seattle Mariners will send White to full season ball in 2018, though whether it will be to low-A or to their high-A club will be the big question.
1. Kyle Lewis, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/13/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: Arizona Rookie League Mariners, high-A Modesto Nuts
2017 Stats: .257/.329/.412, 213 PA, 7 HR, 3 SB, 19/52 BB/K
Info: Coming into the 2016 draft, many considered Lewis a lock for the top 3 picks of the draft – then started falling…and falling…until the Seattle Mariners grabbed him with the 11th overall selection. One of the questions many had was exactly what other teams saw in the medical reports or found out during interviews that may have scared them away.
Initially, it looked like those 10 teams were going to regret their decision as Lewis looked like a beast out of the gate in his draft season. After putting on a home run barrage in batting practice at the big league park in his introduction to fans, Lewis went out and pounded the Northwest League, hitting .299/.385/.530 in his first 30 games.
Then disaster struck. Lewis injured his knee – better put, he shredded his knee, ending his season in 2016 and making his 2017 quite a bit in question.
As a draft prospect, Lewis was an incredible athlete, capable of being a plus defender in right field, stealing bases, and offering a projection of a plus-plus power tool. Injuries have sapped away much of that lofty ceiling
Lewis didn’t make his season debut in 2017 until June, and after just two games, he headed back to extended spring and eventually re-started his year with the Arizona Rookie League team to get his feet under him.
He played out the year after mid-July in high-A, and he showed quality power in his time there, though he struggled with his contact rate, hitting .255, which was lower than expected for a guy who was supposed to be a pure hitter. He then left the Arizona Fall League after 2 games and just 9 plate appearances due to soreness in the same knee that he destroyed in 2016.
As a draft prospect, Lewis was an incredible athlete, capable of being a plus defender in right field, stealing bases, and offering a projection of a plus-plus power tool. Injuries have sapped away much of that lofty ceiling, leaving Lewis entering his age-22 season with many not knowing exactly what to think of him.
Lewis was considered the Seattle Mariners only top 100 prospect going into the 2018 season before news that came out on Monday that Lewis had arthroscopic surgery on his knee and would not be on the field until the end of April at the soonest. This is a huge blow to the system and could be a death nail in the future of Lewis as a contributor defensively. The Mariners may have to hope he can salvage value in his bat alone at this point.
Once healthy, Lewis should likely open 2018 in AA, but after not exactly wow-ing scouts at the high-A level, he’ll have work to do, and he’s already coming off of a major set back this spring.
Next: Newcomers to watch
2017 Acquisition: Oliver Jaskie, LHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 11/17/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: short season A-ball Everett AquaSox
2017 Stats: 13 G, 10 GS, 30 1/3 IP, 6.82 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 9% BB, 22.9% K
Info: A Michigan high school boy, Jaskie went on to be a Wolverine after being undrafted out of high school, and he’s seen his fastball click up during college. He finished with a top-20 strikeout rate in Division 1 in 2017 before going in the 6th round to the Seattle Mariners.
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Jaskie would be viewed by many as a prototype college lefty that got by with lesser stuff due to deception and a good mix of pitches that would get tattooed in pro ball, but in spite of his high ERA in Everett, Jaskie has some legit reason to follow.
Jaskie was the talk of the fall instructs among scouts I talked with, seeing his arm pop up another 2-3 MPH, giving him a fastball that sat 89-92 and could top out at 94, making it a legit big league pitch. Add in his change taking a big step forward and finding distinction between a slider and a curve that had molded together into a slurve for much of his collegiate career, and there’s something to watch.
Jaskie did strike out more than a hitter per inning in pro ball due to his deceptive delivery and his excellent pitch combination.
The Mariners system is fairly barren, which should give a guy with just enough deception and stuff to see progress through the system if he can work his location and use the lower half of the zone better to create weak contact along with getting better defenders behind him. He should open with full-season ball in 2018.
So that is the Seattle Mariners’ top 10 prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!