Fantasy baseball sleepers: Pitchers to target late

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Looking for fantasy baseball sleepers? Here are five potential pitching options that could make a big difference this season.

Finding the right sleepers in fantasy baseball can make a major difference. Those late round gems, when they pan out, can be the difference between taking home the trophy and losing in the playoffs. These players can set a team apart, leaving other team owners to wonder how they were unable to find those players for their own teams.

As leagues start to ramp up and prepare for their drafts, it is a time to start preparing. Obviously, the top of most lists will look pretty similar, with most teams targeting the same players early in the draft. Short of doing something insane like drafting Brandon League in the third round (don’t laugh – this happened in one of my leagues back in 2014) any baseball fan can build a team early.

Those mid to late round picks are where championships are made. In this post, we will focus on pitchers, taking a look at five starters that may not be big names, but warrant a look late. Obviously, these players come with risks, but they appear poised to dramatically outperform their draft position.

So, which pitchers could end up as fantasy baseball sleepers this year? Here are our five choices.

Tyler Chatwood

If nothing else, leaving the Colorado Rockies for the Chicago Cubs would be enough to make Tyler Chatwood a potential fantasy baseball sleeper.

Chatwood is not a pitcher that is going to turn heads. He has yet to pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, and he led the National League with 15 losses last year. His career numbers are not much better, as he has posted a 40-46 record, along with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.485 WHiP in his 647.2 innings.

However, there are reasons to think that Chatwood will be a much better pitcher for the Cubs. During his career, he has been quite serviceable on the road, with a lifetime 3.31 ERA and a 1.335 WHiP. His strikeout to walk rate of 1.52 may not be great, but he could provide solid numbers in regards to his ERA.

That ERA could also lower given the Cubs excellent defense behind him. As an extreme ground ball pitcher, having potential Gold Glove caliber players at every spot on the infield should limit the number of balls that get through, improving his WHiP. And, as a member of the Cubs, Chatwood should be a solid contributor in wins as well.

Tyler Chatwood may not be a star, but he could be a nice addition to the back of a fantasy baseball pitching staff. As a player who may remain undrafted, or taken in the last couple of rounds, he could provide quite a significant return on investment.

Luis Castillo

The Cincinnati Reds are looking for a pitcher to lead their staff into the next decade. Flamethrower Luis Castillo may be that pitcher.

Castillo is not a stranger to fantasy baseball players, especially those in deep keeper or dynasty leagues. His high octane fastball, coupled with solid command, made him a pitcher to watch in the Reds system. However, there were questions as to whether or not he would remain in the rotation, or end up being shipped to the bullpen.

After a period of acclimating to the majors, Castillo showed that he could become a fantasy mainstay. In his final eight outings of 2017, he posted a stellar 2.37 ERA and 0.872 WHiP, striking out 53 batters while issuing only 19 walks in those 49.1 innings. Opponents managed a meager .166/.246/.278 batting line in that time, with only four homers.

Obviously, Castillo will not perform like that over the course of a full season. However, those final eight starts should that he may have turned a corner in his development. Likewise, as a groundball pitcher, Castillo would be less likely to be effected by the launching pad known as Great American Ballpark.

This may be the last chance to get Luis Castillo as a late round pick in fantasy baseball. His ascension to stardom may have already begun.

Jake Faria

For a time, Jake Faria was one of the hotter pickups in fantasy baseball last year.

The Tampa Bay Rays rookie had exploded in AAA, striking out 84 batters in 58.2 innings. his command, which had been a problem, had improved, as Faria was walking only 3.4 batters per nine innings. Brought up to make a spot start, Faria never left the Rays, posting a solid 3.43 ERA and a 1.177 WHiP, striking out 84 batters in his 86.2 major league innings.

However, there were a few rough spots. Those command issues began to resurface, as he walked 20 batters in his final 41.2 innings. Although he struck out 43 batters, those walks led to a 4.97 ERA and a 1.392 WHiP in that time, making Faria a risky investment.

Yet, if he can improve his control, Faria could end up as a future fantasy star. His first seven starts were excellent, as he posted a 2.00 ERA and a 0.978 WHiP, striking out 41 batters against ten walks in 45 innings. Even if he does not keep his ERA at that level, that strikeout to walk rate would bode well for his future.

Jake Faria is likely to have a role with the Tampa Bay Rays, remaining in the rotation as the team moves to a four man staff at the start of the year. A strong start to the year could be a great sign moving forward.

Trevor Williams

Chances are, Trevor Williams is not a name that one will hear in a fantasy baseball draft this year. However, as a flier in the last round, he could prove to be worthwhile.

Despite not having the pedigree or the reputation of the other Pittsburgh Pirates starters, Williams actually led the rotation with his 4.07 ERA, and was third with a 1.310 WHiP. Ignoring his two blowups against the Dodgers and Cardinals, where he allowed a combined 14 earned runs and 17 baserunners in just six innings, Williams becomes a far more enticing pitcher.

Even with those horrific performances, he put together a solid 2017 campaign. In addition to his 4.07 ERA and 1.310 WHiP, Williams struck out 117 batters in his 150 innings, allowing just 52 walks. He also did a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (see a trend here?) with 1.28 ground ball outs for every out in the air. By keeping the ball on the ground, only 7.8% of the hits against him went for extra bases, and he gave up only 14 homers.

There is potential for even more with Williams going forward. At just 26 years old, he could develop that excellent command he showed in the minors, where he walked just 2.5 batters per nine innings. Improved command could also help his strikeout numbers, especially when paired with his fastball that can reach the upper 90s.

Trevor Williams may not get a second look in fantasy baseball drafts this year. But as a flier in the last round, he could prove invaluable.

Mike Foltynewicz

Last year, Mike Foltynewicz was a popular sleeper in fantasy baseball. After a middling, at best, 2017 campaign, that luster has worn off.

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After a solid 2016 campaign, Foltynewicz was expected to take a step forward, potentially becoming a top of the rotation pitcher for the Braves. Instead, he took fell backwards, posting a 4.97 ERA and a 1.481 WHiP. He struggled with his command, posting a career worst 3.4 walks per nine, and hit ten batters, doubling his career total.

Yet, even with those rough numbers, there were positives for Foltynewicz. His 8.4 K/9 rate was the best of his time in the majors, and he displayed an improved changeup and curve. If Foltynewicz can get all three pitches working at the same time consistently, he could be poised to take that step forward.

Foltynewicz also ran into a bit of bad luck last year. While he has always tended to have a high batting average on balls in play against, opponents hit .332 when putting the ball in play against him last year, a 26 point increase over 2016. With the Braves outfield defense having improved, those numbers could decrease in 2018.

Next: Yankees, DBacks, Rays make three team deal

After fantasy owners were burned by Mike Foltynewicz last year, he may slide down the draft boards. As a late round pick, he could be due for that breakout campaign.

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