Boston Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia is about to have a career year

The Red Sox reaffirmed their status as contenders with the signing of J.D. Martinez. But the most important addition to this team will be a rejuvenated Dustin Pedroia.

The Boston Red Sox came into spring training with visions of glory. That’s a sight second baseman and four-time All-Star Dustin Pedroia always has. But there is a big difference between spring training dreams and regular season realities.

Petey must know that by now.

He has after all played on two championship teams. And helped the Sox win the division four times.

Conversely, he’s also played on three teams that finished last in the AL East. He watched as his 2011 team suffered an historic September collapse, only Big Papi being brave enough to panic. And he has felt the sting of being booed off the field by the Fenway faithful.

So, admit it or not, Dustin knows not every Red Sox team is really good enough to win the World Series.

But this one is.

And it should be. Boston is in the middle of its most recent championship plan. They started it back in 2014 by acceding to developing players. That cleared the way for current regulars such as SS Xander Bogaerts, CF Jackie Bradley and RF Mookie Betts to gain big league experience.

That was Only the Beginning

Satisfied with phase one, they brought in President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski to do what he does best, namely, to put a win-now team on the field every year.

That means selling off every part of the farm for now players and maxing out the budget. It means getting the best free agents and trying to create a juggernaut.

This is all part of the natural life-cycle of an organization and the most fun one. It is here, in phase two, that teams such as the Sox expect to win division titles and championship belts. If not, they enter the time of aging players no longer worth their contracts and of selling off assets to restock the farm.

Yes, GoT’ers, winter arrives.

The Sox are not there just yet. They are still solidly in fun phase two. But it’s coming and soon. And the problem for Boston is that the payoff so far has been mixed.

The Resume, So Far

Boston has won the last two AL East crowns. And that should not be dismissed.

They have, however, won but a single playoff game in the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Astros won the 2017 World Series while AL Central winner Cleveland won more games last year than Boston (102/93).

Both of their phase twos are going better than that of the Red Sox.

Add that their division rival Yankees just entered the same situation this year, as signaled by the acquisition of NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, and Boston’s fun phase is turning in to a bummer.

But that can all change this year.

Boston has a team not only built to win now, but also capable of doing so. It is not hyperbole to suggest they could have the best starting staff in the division, if not all of baseball.

Lefties David Price and Chris Sale could finish one-two in the CY Young voting, while RHP Steven Wright could be almost as effective. Even righty Rick Porcello’s disappointing 2017 is reason for optimism.

He has been alternating good years and bad since 2013, every mediocre season being followed by an excellent one. His CY Young season of 2016—during which he posted a 3.15 ERA—was preceded by his 4.92 ERA from 2015, par exemple.

That makes his 4.65 of last year a good omen for 2018.

But Has the Defense Rested?

And now that Boston has added speed and power with UI Eduardo Nunez and LF J.D. Martinez, the offense can at least hold up its end.

Those same additions, though, have simultaneously hurt the defense.

Martinez might routinely push Andrew Benintendi to center, displacing the far superior defender Jackie Bradley. Both Nunez and Martinez, meanwhile, provide their own trade-offs as neither man will ever be outfitted for gloves of gold. Still, other teams have won with worse.

Add it all up and it means the Red Sox can win it all this year, but are far from the favorites. Maybe even in their own division.

And it also adds up to a career defining year for 2B Dustin Pedroia.

I Wonder if They Played Chess?

It is possible that Dustin caught a vision of his baseball mortality and sees the grim reaper before him. He might even have a greater sense of urgency now then ever as he will end this season at age 35.

And with a chance to win it all, his effort might surpass even his expectations.

Plus, Petey has always played best with a chip on his shoulder. He is going to want to prove his struggles both in the regular season and the Red Sox single postseason series were due to his injury, not declining skill.

Last year, if you wanted to know who the real Pedroia was, you had to ask somebody. This year, you’ll only have to look out on the field.

There are even a few ancillary reasons we might see the best Pedroia we have ever seen, which is saying something about a man who has won both a Rookie of the Year award and an MVP.

Can’t You Just Say, Extra

First is the Yankees. It’s one thing to try to win the division; it’s another when the boys from the Bronx seem like the biggest barrier. The Sox and Yanks have rarely fielded top teams at the same time during Petey’s tenure, save ’08 and ’09.

Now their seasons seem on a collision course.

Both teams know that their head-to-head meetings might decide the division. That is of utmost importance since any team can lose a one-game Wild Card playoff. This should make each Red Sox/Yankees regular season match-up akin to a postseason matchup.

And that will suit Dustin Pedroia just fine.

Whatever max effort he thought he was giving against the Orioles or White Sox will find a new top mark in Yankees games. But that won’t be his only motivation.

Less Is More

The Red Sox, as noted, are being forced to trade defense for offense; Dustin can provide both. Once he returns, his steady to spectacular play up the middle and at the dish should provide the kind of leadership by example that could fortify any team.

Knowing that will only push Pedrioa harder.

It is also because he will miss part of the season that will help make this one of his best. Playing fewer games will limit his chances for injury. It will also help him stay fresher deep in to the season and beyond.

More importantly, runners start running faster once they see the finish line. And that line is already closer when you start the season late. Petey will see it from the moment he steps on the field.

Finally, his delayed start will allow him to return to the Red Sox as a savior. If they are doing well, he will be seen as the final piece of the puzzle. If struggling, his return will be like that of Moses, leading his people to the promised land.

Either way his return will inject tremendous confidence into their locker room. And Dustin will both feed into it…and off of it.

But it is likely to be the last great display from this great player. Even surgically repaired knees can only last so long with the pounding Petey gives. Even were he surgery free, though, the best of them all slow down at some point.

And he is probably aware that this could be the last year of Boston’s fun phase two.

A Good Double Entendre

For starters, Price has an opt-out after this year and seems likely to exercise it. This is not a man who enjoys Boston’s brand of hospitality.

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Fellow lefty Drew Pomeranz needs no such clause as he is an unrestricted free agent after this season, as is closer Craig Kimbrel. The guess here is that Drew will get more than his current 8.5 million moving forward, probably a prohibitive price for a return.

And if the two starters do leave, it might bring a premature close to the Red Sox run, originally planned to end after 2019. Porcello will be a free agent after that season. Recently re-signed Mitch Moreland’s two year deal also ends at the same time.

And even the best value of all, Chris Sale, will be gone after 2019.

In fact, he might go after this season. The Sox have an option on him for ’19 but his price goes up to at least 15 million, considerably more than the current 12.5 per annum.

That might be worth it for another shot at a title, but is perhaps fool’s gold for a decomposing team.

Not All Crops are Equal

In addition, the home grown players are likely to present more conundrums than solace one year from now. Bradley will be under control but might be an albatross by then. Mookie Betts will be around, but likely to get another pay raise for 2019.

His millions might be the single reason the Sox cannot come up with more for Pomeranz.

And Bogaerts will be in his final year of club control. Without Price or Pomeranz, though, the Red Sox might think his value higher as a trade chip. And that could trigger a sell-off of Marlins’ proportions after the 2018 season.

That’s a possible future Petey must be fully aware of.

Especially as the Red Sox will have to pay Pedroia 40 million from 2019-2021. That is value they are unlikely to see after this year. And that’s a possible future Boston must be fully aware of.

But that will be okay as they are going to get more than what they are paying for this season.

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You can see Pedroia’s year coming. A sense of urgency, a chance to take down the hated Yankees and a win a championship over their defeated corpses, and a newly restored vitality will all make this a season to remember.

The Red Sox will get vintage Petey in the last year of his prime. They will get the hustle and energy, big hits and timely home runs. Whether or not they get a championship remains to be seen.

But what they will get is Dustin Pedroia. And that is more than most clubs can hope for.