Washington Nationals need Jake Arrieta as much he needs them
Jake Arrieta was among the top free agents entering the offseason, but he hasn’t garnered as much interest as he’d hoped. The Washington Nationals already have on of the best rotations in baseball but have failed to make it past the NLDS in their history. Could a union solve both parties’ issues?
The Washington Nationals are already fifth in MLB to start the season according to CBS’ power rankings. Sliding Jake Arrieta into the third spot of their rotation could see them crack into the top three.
Rumors of the Nationals’ interest in Arrieta started early in the offseason. The rumors died down for some time, but have risen again in the days before spring training. With the reigning National League Cy Young winner Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg fronting their rotation—the Nationals’ rotation is already quite formidable. But adding Arrieta could push the Nationals over the edge they continue to fall short of.
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Clock ticking for Washington
The Nationals’ superstar and former MVP Bryce Harper will hit free agency at the end of the 2018 season. His free agency could be the symbolic end to the Nationals’ window. And retaining Harper will be a tall task for the Nationals.
Due to Harper’s age and already proven track record, he’s bound to pull in one of MLB’s biggest contracts ever. Signing a player to such a deal seems much more feasible for the most significant market teams in MLB like the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Dodgers or the Chicago Cubs, to name a few. If a contract of that magnitude went poorly, those franchises could still potentially find ways to compete.
That’s not to say Harper’s leaving Washington is a given. No one knows what he’ll do, but if he’s chasing the money, odds are someone can make a better offer to Harper than the Nationals.
However, Harper isn’t the only piece who would hit free agency after 2018. Gio Gonzalez, Matt Wieters, and Matt Adams are among the other weapons the Nationals could lose after 2018.
But if the Nationals need to win now, why would they sign 31-year old contract looking for a half-decade-long contract?
Paying for mediocrity later is the only way to get top free agent talent now
Even in this unique offseason, this trend seems to continue. However, there are ways to structure these multi-year contracts that can help teams avoid being crippled by them.
J.D. Martinez recently agreed to a five-year deal with the Boston Red Sox in which he’s guaranteed $25 million in each of the first two years of his contract. The contract includes second and third-year opt-outs for Martinez. If Martinez did opt out, that would mean the Red Sox got an incredibly high level of productivity from him in his time there. If he stays with Boston, he’ll cost less following the first two years.
The Nationals could attract Arrieta with a similar deal. Pay him big bucks for his first two or three years in Washington and incentivize him to opt out thereafter should he perform well. Either Arrieta’s yearly salary from Washington would decrease, or he’d opt out after what would have to be consecutive great years from him for opting out to be worth it.
In a better scenario for Washington, the apparent lack of interest in Arrieta could bring his asking price to something much more modest and sensible for Washington. If Arrieta comes down to a three-year deal, it’d be silly for the Nationals not to pounce on that opportunity.
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An Arrieta addition for the Nationals would make them undisputed National League favorites. The Nationals’ window is closing, and Arrieta may be the key piece that pushes them past the first weeks of October in 2018.