Phillies’ plan A dollarwise
While many Phillies fans are thinking of today’s victories, the front office headed by general manager Matt Klentak must have concern for tomorrow because they didn’t suffer rebuilding pain for two or three years of contending for a Wild Card Game.
One-two punch:
With a full schedule of exhibition games ahead, the Philadelphia Phillies and their faithful supporters are approaching this season with unbridled hope. But the similarity ends there because fans still want to spend for an ace, and Klentak had to factor in expenditures for future homegrown stars.
IN OTHER WORDS: “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” – Benjamin Franklin
No, Klentak won’t recommend certain signings to president Andy MacPhail because the senior executive is against long-term deals for over-30 moundsmen. But if–a huge if–a three-campaign offer with a mutual option is acceptable, it might come down to an extra $10 million..
Firstly, additional millions will also be easy proposals for other organizations, but a guaranteed fourth summer will be the move of an anxious contender. The Phils aren’t! The why is being able to pay two estimated commitments beginning with the 2019 season for major in-house talent.
If the red pinstripes are serious contenders, they will need an ace to start the first game of the NLDS, the NLCS and the 2020 World Series. Another requirement will be either a pure hitter and/or a slugger. In other words, they’ll need an arm and a bat between 26 and 30 years of age for a sustained run, not a long shot.
To illustrate, the 1950 Phillies had Robin Roberts as their stopper and big-game hurler including his triumph to clinch the pennant on Oct. 1. And Richie Ashburn is still the best leadoff man in franchise history.
Despite 1964’s collapse, those Phils had Jim Bunning taking the ball every fifth day including a perfect game on Father’s Day. And the power hitter was rookie Dick Allen: 162 games, 708 PA, .318, 29 HR and 91 RBIs.
As for 1980, Steve Carlton again provided another dominant 162 to lead the pitching staff, and the club finally got past the NLCS. Also going through lean times with Lefty before contending was Mike Schmidt, who was a heralded defender at the hot corner as well.
And 10 springs ago, Cole Hamels was preparing for a new season after the team to beat won on the final day of the schedule. But the offensive star this time was a three-hole hitter: Chase Utley.
Today’s twosome:
Displaying dominance in 2018’s second half, Aaron Nola sparkled in 10 consecutive performances over two months. He accomplished that with a combination of a 93- 94-mph fastball, a devastating curveball and pinpoint control.
In the batter’s box, Rhys Hoskins not only demonstrated his ability to provide souvenirs but also his plate discipline in the process. Granted, the league will make it a priority to exploit any weaknesses or pitch around him. Translation: realistic numbers.
With three-year contracts, Klentak revealed the strategy behind the front-office doors. In other words, significant commitments for Nola and then Hoskins will escalate from ’19 through ’21. And if both have spectacular 2018s, they won’t be earning slightly above the MLB minimum in 2019.
Keeping the supporting cast together is also financially critical for a sustained run. Therefore, management can’t have, for instance, five players receiving $30 million per summer or $150 million of the $197 million thresholds for the competitive balance tax.
The leadoff hitter, the setup men, the rotation and the other regulars won’t receive their monetary value with the hometown nine if five stars tie up 75 percent of the budget. And keep in mind, most franchises are realizing the penalties for excessive spending to be a losing proposition.
The GM must figure a maximum of three standouts at $90 million total per year: 45 percent. Ergo, he’ll have $107 million available for the 40-man roster and a fourth signing of a free agent or a highly successful prospect like Scott Kingery or Sixto Sanchez.
Depending on their 162, Nola and Hoskins could receive $2 million up to $8 million for 2019. Nola will be on the higher end and Hoskins on the lower side. But is there an organizational candidate a fortune teller’s crystal ball might display dollar signs? Yes, Kingery!
Roadblocks:
In a recent Twitter conversation, a reader expressed his heartened interest in bringing back Hamels next season. And some facts did not extinguish his hopes, but research also indicates additional difficulties.
On the surface, Hamels’ agreement has a club option of $20 million for ’19 or a $6 million buyout. And which one the Texas Rangers decide on will depend on his stats for ’18.
The Phillies paid $17.75 million of the $82.1 million remaining on the southpaw’s deal: 21.3 percent to complete the 2015 trade. In other words, the Rangers’ financial situation then and probably now will be a factor as well.
Hamels, 34, is the age Cliff Lee was in his last stellar campaign. And Roy Halladay had his dominant last summer at 35. But last year, the homegrown left-hander only had 22 starts with an 11-6 record and a 4.20 ERA for 148 innings.
Additionally, if the Rangers drop out of contention for a second wild card, they could move Hamels in mid-July. And a surprising Phils team could consider him, but they’ll have competition.
Keep in mind, when Allen returned in the mid-1970s, many fans anticipated the Richie Allen from his first Philadelphia stint. And the same is true of expectations for an aging Hamels: He was 31 when he twirled his farewell no-hitter.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “When you go out on the mound and you’re confident in your body, you feel you can do anything.” – Cole “Hollywood” Hamels
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Ages for previous stars are in the year indicated.
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2017 Phillies:
- Nola, 24.5: 27 Gms., 168 Inn., 12-11, a 3.54 ERA, a 3.27 FIP, a 3.38 xFIP, a 3.60 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
Hoskins, almost 25:
- Phillies: 50 Gms., 212 PA, a .259 Avg., a .396 OBP, a .618 SLG, a .359 ISO, a .241 BABIP, 18 HR, 48 RBI, a 1.014 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.
- AAA: 115 Gms., 425 PA, a .284 Avg., a .385 OBP, a .581 SLG, a .297 ISO, a .229 BABIP, 29 HR, 91 RBI, a .966 OPS and a 2.7 WARP.
2008 Phillies:
- Hamels, 24: 33 Gms., 227 1/3 Inn., 14-10, a 3.09 ERA, a 3.72 FIP, a 3.58 xFIP, a 3.63 SIERA, a 4.8 fWAR and a 1.08 WHIP.
- Utley, 29: 159 Gms., 707 PA, a .292 Avg., a .380 OBP, a .535 SLG, a .244 ISO, a .301 BABIP, 33 HR, 104 RBI, a .915 OPS, a 8.2 fWAR and 14 SB, 2 CS and a 5.8 Spd.
1980 Phillies:
- Carlton, 34: 38 Gms., 304 Inn., 24-9, a 2.34 ERA, a 2.42 FIP, an 8.8 fWAR and a 1.10 WHIP.
- Schmidt, 31: 150 Gms., 652 PA, a .286 Avg., a .380 OBP, a .624 SLG, a .338 ISO, a .277 BABIP, 48 HR, 121 RBI, a 1.004 OPS and a 9.0 fWAR.
Next: Phillies: Matters settled and unsettled until April
1964 Phillies:
- Bunning, 34: 41 gms. (2 in Relief), 284 1/3 Inn., 19-8, a 2.63 ERA, a 2.75 FIP, a 5.6 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
- Allen, 22: 162 Gms., 708 PA, a .318 Avg., a .382 OBP, a .557 SLG, a .239 ISO, a .368 BABIP, 29 HR, 91 RBI, a .939 OPS and an 8.2 fWAR.
1950 Phillies:
- Roberts, 23: 40 gms. (1 in Relief), 304 1/3 Inn., 20-11, a 3.02 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, 1 Save, a 5.3 fWAR and a 1.18 WHIP.
- Ashburn, 23: 151 Gms., 670 PA, a .303 Avg., a .372 OBP, a .402 SLG, a .099 ISO, a .318 BABIP, 2 HR, 41 RBI, a .774 OPS, a 3.3 fWAR, 14 SB, 0 CS and a 5.8 Spd.