2018 Atlanta Braves: This is about excitement

I don’t know if the 2018 Atlanta Braves will be good, but they should be fun to watch.

Baseball is baseball, and for that reason, it is difficult to speak in certainties. Players break out, and then some crater. Every year there are 30-something pitchers who find a way to reinvent themselves — unheralded prospects that burst on to the scene and surprise everyone. The 2018 season for the Atlanta Braves could very well host each of these occurrences.

The one constant: Freddie Freeman

This conversation starts and stops with Freddie Freeman. Freeman is the kind of talent you build around, and the Braves are doing just that. Freddie Freeman is nearly an anomaly; he runs a high contact rate, barrels an absurd amount of pitches, and hits them with authority. The fact that he generates an above average output of line drives and fly balls only adds to this absurdity. When it comes to quality of contact, Freddie has very few peers. Even though Freddie Freeman has been around since 2010, he’s still entering just his age 28 season, and it’s right in the middle of a baseball player’s prime.

Although Freddie Freeman is a known commodity and as close to a sure bet as it gets, he will be flanked by players who will be more volatile but filled with upside. The Braves are in the rare era of having an absolute wealth of high upside players on its roster. You’d have to go back to 2013 to find a roster that is remotely comparable when we got to watch Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, Freddie Freeman, Brian McCann and Evan Gattis on a nightly basis.

Addition by subtraction, and a possible prelude to superstardom

It’s hard to get an upside conversation underway without bringing up Ronald Acuna immediately. The now-20-year-old wunderkind took the minor leagues by storm in 2017, improving upon his previous wRC+ with every promotion. After a brief cameo in High-A sporting a 135 wRC+, that number improved to 159 in AA, and then 162 in AAA. Put another way, Acuna was 62% better than the average AAA batter, while being more than half a decade younger than the average AAA age.

Part of the excitement about Ronald Acuna pertains to who he will replace, namely Matt Kemp. The Braves essentially ran a DH out to left field in 2017, and the results weren’t pretty. Ronald Acuna, by contrast, will be an above average defender in CF playing at an outfield corner. When Alex Anthopoulos said his priority was making the Braves better defensively, he addressed that in a significant way by trading Matt Kemp away and making room for Acuna.

When FOX Sports South Atlanta Braves reporter Cory McCartney described Acuna’s live BP session versus Sam Freeman, he said that Acuna crushed two pitches in a row and it looked like he was taking soft toss BP. Time will tell just how successful Acuna will be out of the gates — I’m very bullish on Acuna this season — but he will be, if nothing else, one of the most exciting players in MLB.

Atlanta Braves: The “Most Improved” award winner

Johan Camargo falls under the label of unheralded breakthrough prospect. Always touted for his defense in the minors, Camargo has been improving his offensive profile and lean mass since 2015. Once a slap hitter, Camargo now has gap-to-gap power while barreling his fair share of baseballs. He can play all over the infield and was also a natural SS. Given that there are already two shortstops in the infield, he’ll man third base, where he should be plus. Yep, ground balls are going to die thousands of deaths versus the Braves defense in 2018.

And then there’s pitching.

Remember replacing Kemp with Acuna? Addition by subtraction is a neat thing. The Braves have bid Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey adieu, and they have placed some electric arms in their place.

The mainstay

When your 27-year-old top of the rotation pitcher is the most boring pitcher in the rotation, you’ve got some very good “problems.” Julio Teheran has been around forever, but he won’t turn 30 until 2020. Despite throwing more than a thousand innings to date, Julio remains intriguing and is only a few tweaks away from being a force in any given season.

The Enigma

Mike Foltynewicz is reminiscent of a young Justin Verlander with his ability to maintain high 90s velocity deep into games. The fastball has never been a question for Folty. Instead, the issue has always been consistency. On any given night, Foltynewicz may have a pitch or two missing from his four-pitch arsenal, only to follow it up with a stellar outing in which all of his offerings are on. Folty is due to take another step forward. Whether he will do so or not has yet to be seen.

Atlanta Braves: The Upstarts

Sean Newcomb

As Bartolo Colon disintegrated last year, we looked up to find Sean Newcomb standing in his place. Many have long known the book on Newcomb. He possesses plus velocity from the left side that’s difficult to square up. His trademark is a plus curveball with 12 to 6 movement as well as 11 to 5. Sean Newcomb is always going to strike out high volumes of batters, but he may also walk the rest.

Newcomb made improvements on his changeup separation and movement last year. That said, it got walloped when he did not command it on the black or out of the zone. Newcomb has been focusing on his mechanics over the winter at the TB12 Center – Tom Brady’s training compound. Yet to make his first spring training start, all eyes will be on Newcomb’s command and control.

Luiz Gohara

Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2017 was the emergence of Luiz Gohara.  Gohara bulldozed three levels of the minors last year, not unlike Ronald Acuna. Gohara has an incredible mound presence at 6’3″ tall and weighing in at 210 lbs — a generous weight. Gohara’s fastball from the left side clocked in at the highest LHSP fastball velocity in baseball last year. He paired that offering with a plus to double plus slider. He got an astounding 25.7% whiff rate on the slider in 2017. Unlike most young power pitches, Gohara showed an ability to limit walks, with a BB rate of only 6.5%.

Max Fried

Max Fried may not factor in right away in 2018, depending on spring training outcomes, but he is one of the Braves prospect pitchers I am most high on. Max Fried’s 2017 AA stint was a maddening campaign for some, but Max Fried’s underlying performance in AA always looked good. He logged a 3.78 xFIP despite an unfortunate 5.92 ERA.

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Throughout his MLB stint, Max Fried showed tantalizing stuff. Max Fried can get to success in a few different ways. He offers three above-average pitches, starting with his low-to-mid 90s fastball. He gets separation with an above average changeup. Finally, Fried spins a true hammer curve that always rated as one of the best in the Braves system. Even when Fried isn’t missing bats, he is an extreme groundball pitcher.  Fried coaxed grounders on 69 percent of his ground balls, 65 percent of his changeups and 60 percent of his curveballs. With a good to excellent infield defense behind him, Max Fried has multiple tools for success.

There’s more, but that will do.

All told, I think the Atlanta Braves can be one of the top three most exciting teams in baseball this year. Success is not assured nor even very likely, but regardless of the outcome of 2018, it will be a thrilling voyage.

Next: Will these new MLB rule changes speed the game up?

Oh, and hi, I’m Dustin. I’m excited to be here and write about that which I love: baseball.