MLB Free Agency: What you can expect from minor league signings
In MLB Free Agency, most free agents signed to minor league contracts don’t provide much value, but teams do pick up an occasional gem.
We’re in the part of the baseball season when teams are looking for talent to add to their rosters as spring training heats up. Just in the last week, we’ve seen Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez sign big-money free agent contracts and a three-team trade between the Diamondbacks, Rays, and Yankees. We’ll likely see a few more big names signed soon enough, like Jake Arrieta and Mike Moustakas, and perhaps a few more trades accompanying MLB free agency signings.
Those are the headline deals, but there are smaller moves being made as well. One place teams look for cheap talent is among veteran free agents who are willing to sign minor league contracts with an invitation to spring training. The Orioles picked up Colby Rasmus, and the Royals signed Michael Saunders on minor league deals recently. The Cardinals did the same with Jason Motte, and Cleveland added Rajai Davis to their outfield mix on a minor league deal.
I wrote about minor league free agents and replacement level recently, but now let’s talk specifics. What can teams expect out of a minor league MLB free agency signings? How many of these guys contribute positively and how many fade away? Who is the best minor league free agent signing in the last 10 years?
Based on my research explained in the article linked above, the first thing to know when you hear that your favorite team has signed a player to a minor league free agent contract is that roughly 40 percent of them don’t get any big league playing time that season. Teams have spring training to pick and choose which players make the major league roster, and these guys are on the cusp of making it or getting released. Many get released.
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Of the players who get major league playing time, few become regular players. Most are guys who come off the bench. As a group over the last 10 years, these position players averaged 152 plate appearances and 0.2 WAR (Fangraphs) per year. Those numbers are similar to what A.J. Ellis did for the Marlins last season (163 PA, 0.2 fWAR) or Nick Ahmed with the Diamondbacks (178 PA, 0.2 fWAR).
The pitchers signed to minor league contracts which appear in the big leagues averaged 63 innings and 0.1 fWAR, with 80 percent of them pitching primarily in relief. Last year, Ryan Pressly of the Twins (61.3 IP, 0.1 fWAR) and Daniel Hudson of the Pirates (61.7 IP, 0.1 fWAR) had similar production to the average of this group of pitchers.
Most of these players will straddle replacement level, finishing the season with between -0.5 fWAR and 0.5 fWAR. This is in large part because they don’t play enough to accumulate too much value, positive or negative. Among position players, 68 percent finished in this range, which was higher than for starting pitchers (50 percent) but lower than for relievers (86 percent).
As you might expect, veterans who sign minor league contracts are often near the end of their careers. Jeff Francoeur, Jimmy Rollins, and Casey McGehee were among the minor league free agent signees before the 2016 season who played that year but didn’t play at all last year. Overall, only 54 percent of pitchers and 44 percent of hitters go on to play in the major leagues the year after they play in the bigs after signing a minor league contract.
There are some success stories, though. Last year, Austin Jackson was coming off a slightly below replacement level season in 2016 and signed a minor league contract with Cleveland. He bounced back to hit .318/.387/.482 and signed a 2-year, $6 million deal with the Giants in January. Two seasons ago, Matt Joyce resurrected his career with a minor league deal with the Pirates. After impressing in a platoon role with Pittsburgh, Joyce inked a 2-year, $11 million contract with the Athletics and blasted 25 bombs (24 against right-handed pitchers).
Last season was a bountiful one for relief pitchers signed to minor league contracts. Yusmeiro Petit and Brandon Morrow were among the best relievers in the game and Tommy Hunter, Matt Albers, and David Hernandez were all effective out of the pen. All five of these relievers signed two-year deals in the offseason, with Morrow, Hunter, and Petit signing for $10 million or more.
The best of the best of MLB free agency deals initially sign minor league contracts over the last 10 years is the red-bearded beast in Los Angeles, Justin Turner. Turner was drafted by the Reds in 2006, traded to the Orioles in 2008, and selected off waivers by the Mets in 2010. In his first five big league seasons, he hit .260/.323/.361 in 318 games. He looked like a weak-hitting utility infielder. The Mets let him go in December of 2013, and the Dodgers signed him to a minor league contract in February of 2014.
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In his four seasons with the Dodgers, Turner has hit .303/.378/.502 in 516 games. He had back-to-back seasons with top-10 finishes in NL MVP voting and made the all-star team last year. Only Clayton Kershaw has been more valuable to the Dodgers than Turner during this four-year stretch. You can’t get any better than that from an MLB free agency minor league free agent signing.