The Yankees have two highly touted outfield prospects in camp, Clint Frazier, and Estevan Florial. While they have many traits in common, it is the one they do not share that predicts success for one and struggles for the other.
Yankees universe abounds with top prospects. Gary Sanchez was ranked 27th by MLB.com back in 2013, Aaron Judge rose to 17th in 2015, while Gleyber Torres was listed as the second best young player in baseball just last year.
They seem to be working out well. But not every projected star ends up with his name in lights.
That’s what makes the job of a general manager so hard: He has to predict who will fulfill his prophecies and who will become a lesser-than. And trade accordingly. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has been recently riding a hot streak, turning up aces with every hand.
Reading the cards correctly gets a lot more difficult, though, when evaluating highly talented players. The difference between them can be slight but significant. But that is precisely what is going on with the Yankees and their two top outfield prospects, Clint Frazier and Estevan Florial.
The future, it seems, leaves room for only one of them.
RF Judge would have to face struggles of epic proportions to be displaced, while recently signed OF Giancarlo Stanton is under contract for at least three years, if not ten.
Those boys bring big bats but not overwhelming speed. And so the Yankees will continue to need what they have now, namely, at least two outfielders capable of playing center field. For 2017, that means Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury.
All Good Things Must End
However, the first two are only under contract through this season. And if the Yanks know better than to trust Jake now, they are not going to suddenly put more faith in him as he ages. That doesn’t mean he will not still be on the team, but his order on the depth chart is unlikely to change.
That just leaves room for a center fielder and a back-up outfielder capable of playing center.
Brett Gardner will fit the mold of a back-up and could be around for a while on a string of one-year deals. Or if Aaron Hicks remains enigmatic, his price might keep him in pinstripes, again as part of an outfield rotation.
But neither is in the long-term plans for a starter.
Gardy is getting old, and if Hicks plays well enough to be the starter, the Yankees will likely opt to let him walk.
Whatever Hal and Cash’s secret plan is, it surely includes spending their free agent dollars on an upgrade in talent with players such as SS Manny Machado, LHP Clayton Kershaw, and LHP Drew Pomeranz –which leaves one outfield spot: Center fielder. And the two young Yankees Florial and Frazier vying for it. Parsing out the difference, though, is daunting.