Yankees prospects: A sixth tool separates Estevan Florial from Clint Frazier

The Yankees have two highly touted outfield prospects in camp, Clint Frazier, and Estevan Florial. While they have many traits in common, it is the one they do not share that predicts success for one and struggles for the other.

Yankees universe abounds with top prospects. Gary Sanchez was ranked 27th by MLB.com back in 2013, Aaron Judge rose to 17th in 2015, while Gleyber Torres was listed as the second best young player in baseball just last year.

They seem to be working out well. But not every projected star ends up with his name in lights.

That’s what makes the job of a general manager so hard: He has to predict who will fulfill his prophecies and who will become a lesser-than. And trade accordingly. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has been recently riding a hot streak, turning up aces with every hand.

Reading the cards correctly gets a lot more difficult, though, when evaluating highly talented players. The difference between them can be slight but significant. But that is precisely what is going on with the Yankees and their two top outfield prospects, Clint Frazier and Estevan Florial.

The future, it seems, leaves room for only one of them.

RF Judge would have to face struggles of epic proportions to be displaced, while recently signed OF Giancarlo Stanton is under contract for at least three years, if not ten.

Those boys bring big bats but not overwhelming speed. And so the Yankees will continue to need what they have now, namely, at least two outfielders capable of playing center field. For 2017, that means Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury.

All Good Things Must End

However, the first two are only under contract through this season. And if the Yanks know better than to trust Jake now, they are not going to suddenly put more faith in him as he ages. That doesn’t mean he will not still be on the team, but his order on the depth chart is unlikely to change.

That just leaves room for a center fielder and a back-up outfielder capable of playing center.

Brett Gardner will fit the mold of a back-up and could be around for a while on a string of one-year deals. Or if Aaron Hicks remains enigmatic, his price might keep him in pinstripes, again as part of an outfield rotation.

But neither is in the long-term plans for a starter.

Gardy is getting old, and if Hicks plays well enough to be the starter, the Yankees will likely opt to let him walk.

Whatever Hal and Cash’s secret plan is, it surely includes spending their free agent dollars on an upgrade in talent with players such as SS Manny Machado, LHP Clayton Kershaw, and LHP Drew Pomeranz –which leaves one outfield spot: Center fielder. And the two young Yankees Florial and Frazier vying for it. Parsing out the difference, though, is daunting.

Cashman’s Choice

Choosing between them will be hard, but it must be done. A team would be foolish to keep two, highly ranked young starting outfielders down on the farm or buried on the bench when one is only going to be a backup.

Instead, the Yankees need to figure out which one is the better player and trade the lesser. If they wait too long, the less talented player’s stock will suffer from the comparisons.

However, the overall profile for each player ends most comparisons in a tie.

Both bring all five tools to work. The strength of character has already been seen in each, as well. Desire, work ethic and respect for the game; the two men also seem to share these traits. And both need to cut down on strikeouts.

These are just a few of the reasons that had Clint ranked 15th overall in 2016 and currently have Estevan at 44…and rising.

But Frazier is a better player right now, hitting .256/.344/.473 with 12 home runs and 19 doubles in just 74 games at Triple-A last year. Does that mean he could consistently hit thirty home runs in the majors, starting soon? What do you think?

Yes, I’m Talking to You

And he got invaluable big league experience last year, with its attendant highs and lows. Clint also has more raw power than Estevan, and power always plays. His speed might not make him a true center fielder, but a dynamic bat can overcome some defensive deficiencies.

Getting back to that earlier article by Mr. Martin, Frazier makes the same case:

“I’ve played more center in my career than the corners. I know I can go out there and catch the ball. …nowadays, if you hit, you play.”

He is, however, also older: Frazier is 23 while Florial is but 20. That makes Clint’s ceiling easier to see. And the need to decide on him more pressing.

A Few Marks of Distinction

The age difference cuts both ways, though: Florial’s youth and inexperience make him more of a risk to ever develop into an MLB player while Frazier is apparently on the cusp.

While Clint was performing in Scranton and the Bronx, Estevan spent his season mostly at Low-A Charleston, before finishing his final 19 games at High-A Tampa. His collective line of .298/.372/.479 with 13 home runs and 23 doubles can only be appreciated in context, however.

He was named not only a Mid-Season All-Star–and to the Future’s Game–but also a Post-Season All-Star. Florial was ultimately selected as the Most Outstanding Major League Prospect in the Sally League, as well as an MiLB.com Yankees Organization All-Star for the year.

That prompted the Yankees to send him to the Arizona Fall League, where he was named to the All-Prospect team.

Florial is indeed farther away. His potential, though, seems even higher than that of Frazier. In common parlance, this kid has superstar written all over him.

And On His Wallet

Here, as Randy Miller and NJ.com make clear, observers are gushing, and rushing to say so:

Boone loves imagining what Florial, a five-tool center fielder prospect who hits from the left side, can become once he has another year or two to develop. “You guys have heard me talk about him in glowing terms,” Boone said…

And this from Eric Boland’s fine article for Newsday:

“Athletically,” one opposing team scout said, “he reminds me of a combination of Ken Griffey Jr. and Deion Sanders. Again, that’s athletically. Not projecting that for him, but the skill set is something.” Another rival talent evaluator wouldn’t quite call Florial a five-tool prospect but said he’s “probably as close as I’ve got to it. He could be a game-changer. He’s so young, too.”

Impressive. But potential and five dollars still just gets you a small Caffe Mocha at Starbucks. If the Yankees ship Frazier out, and Florial never fully develop, they will have, pejoratively speaking, killed two birds with one stone.

However, this article would be superfluous if Clint Frazier were the better of the two, where the Yankees could groom him for another year in the minors. Next year, they could promote Frazier and trade Florial once he was fully ripened.

But he is not. And for two good reasons, the second more penetrating than the first.

Running Towards His Future

First and for some foremost, Florial has more speed and quickness. He projects as a true center fielder whereas Frazier is currently lobbying for a time at the position.

Here’s how Dan Martin at the NY Post presented it:

“I made the comment to Aaron Boone today, I said I could play center field,” Frazier said. “‘Don’t get too caught up in the advance metrics. Just use the eye test. You’ve got some throw-back in you, so just give me the chance.’”

The same is true on the base paths, which is saying something. Frazier can really fly.

But Florial has wings on his feet and gets into his higher gear faster. That last comment is based on very limited observations of which I need more of to be sure.

That alone probably secures Florial a big league tryout by the end of 2019, and my guess is a little sooner. His speed will put him on the bench no later than September call-ups and in important games as it once did men such as Homer Bush.

But that is not their most significant separation. No, the thing that marks each man out for a different Yankees path is neither tools nor timing, but temperament.

Memories of Now

Yankees fans remember times last season when Clint played with his hair on fire, sometimes going beyond a supreme effort to a silly mistake.

And he picked up right where he left off with his first game on February 24th. He not only gave a great effort on an outfield catch, which has now led to a concussion but also got picked off of first base in the top of the fourth.

It would be wrong to put too much emphasis on a game so early in Spring Training. But there is history here, and disappointment that this was not a tool Frazier has paid enough attention to.

So if this a harbinger of things to come, of lousy base running and lacks in calm focus as he has shown in the past, then Frazier has already disqualified himself from the competition.

If he cannot control himself now, in a Spring Training game, how long will it be before he can be calm in a close game at Fenway, or in the late innings of a playoff game? The learning curve needs to be a lot flatter on a team with October on its mind.

The Big Easy

Compare that to observations on Florial, returning to Mr. Boland’s article:

“There’s just life to everything that he does,” Boone said. “A calm grace to the way he plays the game. There’s no panic, really.”

Next: The Yankees Giancarlo Stanton and the Reggie Jackson Measuring Stick

Clint Frazier might still turn into an excellent player. Florial, meanwhile, might never roam center field for the Yankees.

But they have already separated themselves in at least one crucial regard: Temperament. This sixth tool was shared by Dimaggio and Jeter. Luis Severino only found success once he fully developed it. Likewise, Judge, Bird, and Sanchez suggest they share this trait.

Estevan Florial might or might not be able to bring that quality with him to the show. It is too early to tell. But what is clear is that Frazier does not possess it, at least not yet.

And that will lead to his separation not just from Florial, but from the Yankees.