Cleveland Indians: The Back End of the Starting Rotation

The Cleveland Indians should have a strong rotation again in 2018, but it will be interesting to see how they deploy their 7 starters for 5 spots.

The 2017 Cleveland Indians were a historically good team in many ways. Not only did they win an American League record 22 games in a row, but by many metrics the Indians had the greatest pitching staff of all time. Cleveland pitchers were worth 31.7 fWAR in 2017, which was better than any staff in the history of baseball. A great chunk of that value came from the most dominant starting rotation ever which featured six guys that all had average or better seasons including one who won the American League Cy Young Award. A key for 2018 will be how closely this staff can replicate that success.

The Cleveland Indians actually bring back all seven pitchers who started a game for them last season. The top of the rotation is pretty much set with two of the best pitchers in baseball, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, manning the top two spots. After those two studs there is a bit of a drop off. Trevor Bauer though has proven to be a reliable mid-rotation starter and still has potential for more, so he will likely slot into the third spot in the rotation to begin the year. The question marks really begin with the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation.

The Indians are not without solid options. Mike Clevinger, Josh Tomlin, Danny Salazar and Ryan Merritt all were good in their respective roles last season and all deserve a shot at the rotation. While these things typically have a way of working themselves out, there is a bit of a logjam in the Cleveland Indians rotation right now. Having too many good starting pitchers certainly qualifies as a great problem to have, but it will be interesting to see how Terry Francona and the front office decide to deploy this talented group.

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It seems obvious though right? Take the five best pitchers of the group and send the other two guys to the bullpen or the minors. Well, it’s a little more complicated than that. Ryan Merritt, the least proven of the group, is out of minor league options. This means that he cannot be sent down to the minors without first exposing him to irrevocable waivers. In all likelihood, if the Cleveland Indians try to send Merritt down, another team will claim him. It’s rare in today’s game that a team can make it through a full schedule with only 6 starting pitchers. This makes Merritt a valuable depth arm that would be tough to lose. The issue remains that Merritt is the team’s 7th best starter and may not be worth carrying in the bullpen.

Another wrinkle is that one of the team’s better pitchers, Danny Salazar, has been unable to stay healthy. He has topped 140 innings pitched just once in his career and has already been slowed in spring training this year with shoulder inflammation. His slow start to the spring may actually make some roster decisions easier, but there is no doubt that the team is better when Salazar is in the rotation. When Salazar is on the mound he is as good as just about anyone on the team. The Indians just need to figure out a way to keep him out there.

The team could keep Salazar fresh by only allowing him to go through an opposing order twice each start. Then, they could bring in another starter to go through the lineup another time. This could help keep Salazar healthy while also keeping him away from the dreaded 3rd time through the order penalty. Not to mention that it would also give a role to one of the starting pitchers that might not otherwise make the team.

The flaw with such a plan is that it would create a lack of bullpen flexibility. At this point in spring, it appears that there is only one spot open in the bullpen. Using a sixth starter as a piggy-back reliever is probably not what the team wants to do with that last spot. Cleveland Indians manager, Terry Francona, would likely prefer to have a little more flexibility there.

There is one pitcher that would allow them flexibility while also pitching in tandem with Danny Salazar. That would be Mike Clevinger.  Clevinger is a supremely talented young pitcher who deserves to be in the rotation, however as currently constructed his most valuable position may be as a super reliever. Every fifth day he could come in after Salazar and turn over the lineup one more time to deliver the ball to Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. On days that Salazar isn’t starting, Clevinger could be used as a dominant, one inning reliever.

In the end, I do expect a more traditional look to the opening day starting rotation. I imagine they will waive Ryan Merritt in hopes of stashing him in AAA. It also appears that Danny Salazar will likely start the season on the DL. This leaves Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger to take up those last two rotation spots to begin the season. The fun will come when Salazar is ready to go. At that point it would be fascinating to see some sort of tandem pitching strategy deployed. It’s going to be fun to watch the many ways the team could use their pitchers this year. Cleveland should coast to another division title allowing them to set themselves up for October.

Next: Indians interesting non roster invitees

With these great pitchers on the staff, the Cleveland Indians will need to figure out the best way to get the most out of all of them when it counts.