Yankees 3B Miguel Andujar’s spring might lead to the fall of Didi Gregorius

1 of 4

The New York Yankees have visions of Miguel Andujar being their next big third base bat. But if that does come in to focus, it might mean seeing the premature end of SS Didi Gregorius.

The New York Yankees and other teams that go through long periods of playoff success also go through substantial changes. RHP Tim Lincecum, for instance, was the San Francisco Giants postseason workhorse in 2010, appearing in six games and throwing 36.2 innings.

In the Giants 2014 postseason, he was called on to pitch just 1.2 innings.

The Yankees started what they hope will be another long run of playoff appearances just last year. Whether they can do as well as the boys by the bay remains to be seen, especially as we are only a few days into the 2018 Spring Training; it’s still more speculation than observation right now.

But soon the starter’s outings will get longer. Or someone will struggle, while another shines, and all unexpectedly. Any of these will put the focus squarely on the now and the 2018 Yankees who will break camp.

Or better yet, the season will start. Then we can all lose ourselves in the trees of baseball’s 162-acre forest.

Time Yet for a Caesura

Right now, though, is still a time for star gazing and prophesying, of thinking about the Fall and beyond. And so while 3B Miguel Andujar might not start the season in the Bronx, he is already causing some starry-eyed gazing of his own.

This is what manager Aaron Boone and others are saying, as relayed by Newsday and the great Eric Boland:

“I’ll tell you what, he plays with a lot of confidence, especially when he gets in the box, and there’s good reason,” Boone said. “He’s got a lot of equipment to do some things.” “Strong athlete, fast bat,” one opposing team scout said. “The bat is real.”

Andujar, however, can only live up to the high expectations he came in to camp with. That’s what happens when you split your time between Double- and Triple-A, and hit .315/.352/.498 by season’s end.

And those weren’t all singles. Miguel collected 16 home runs and an impressive 36 doubles during his campaign.

So far this spring he has not disappointed.

Walking Tall

From the moment he showed up in camp, Andujar stood out.

Not all the best athletes are the biggest and strongest and the race isn’t always to the swiftest, but that’s where the smart money is. Watching some young Yankees go in and out of the training facility, you could handicap the odds of success based on how big each player was.

But Andujar looked like a man among boys.

And he has been showing that in these early games. On Monday, he preserved the Yankees meaningless win streak by hitting a solo home run in the bottom of the ninth. This after hitting a double in his previous at-bat.

Not to be outdone by himself, he showed up the next day and hit yet another home run.

At this pace, he might just reverse his home run and doubles totals from last season. However, that doesn’t mean he will do all of that in the Bronx.

It is very possible that he starts the season in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre but finishes in New York. Unless his footwork never finds its rythm, Andujar seems likely to win the third baseman’s job at some point this year and be ensconced in the position by next year’s Spring Training.

That would fit quite snugly into Brian Cashman’s plans.

That’s good news for Andujar. And for the Yankees. But it is probably a bad sign for SS Didi Gregorius.

And Free Agents Ain’t Free

Right now the Yankees need a long-term solution at third base, the Brandon Drury experiment notwithstanding. Andujar is by far the best candidate in the minors. This from MLB’s Prospect Scouting report on Miguel, currently ranked 65th:

Despite his offensive prowess, Andujar’s most impressive tool is his cannon arm. He has slightly below-average speed, but more than enough range for third base…

While other young Yankees can play the position, they and the team are probably better served if they don’t. That likely means that either Andujar will win the bag or the Yankees will have to get a free agent replacement.

Fortunately, even that back-up plan looks good for the Yanks. Next year will see 32-year old and 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson available for a four-year deal. But no team wants to pay for a position they can get for a rookie salary.

Especially not when the shortstop position will get a lot more expensive at the very same time.

Follow the Money

Sir Didi is going to make a still-team friendly $8.25 million this season, but will likely get an increase for 2019, his final year of arbitration. Comparable shortstop Jean Segura of the Mariners, for instance, is slated to earn $14.75 million next season.

While Gregorius will not make that much, he will be due a well-earned raise. And the next year after he becomes an unrestricted free agent; that will mean a much bigger pay increase. Retaining him would mean paying for two free agents in the infield, instead of spending some of that money on pitching.

That’s not the only thing working against Gregorius in this posited future. Another goal of any club hoping to prolong winning is to upgrade whenever possible, not pay the same player more for the same production.

Here once again fortune seems to be favoring the Yankees.

Fortune Favors the Bold

For the last several years, Orioles infielder Manny Machado has looked like the preeminent young third baseman in baseball. Had he stayed at the position, the Yankees were going to have to choose between keeping a promising homegrown player—Andujar—or spending big for maybe the best in the game.

Now they don’t have to.

More from Call to the Pen

Machado announced to the Orioles that he wanted to play shortstop this year; they promptly and prudently moved him to short. And he announced to the world that teams looking for shortstops were going to get preference in his free agency decision making.

That, in turn, makes a very easy decision for the Yankees: Either pay a little more for Didi and his one more year before free agency, or pay a lot more to upgrade the position for the next decade.

Gregorius is after all already 28, and will be 30 in his free agent year. Machado on the other hand is all of 25 right now, so signing him to a ten year deal in eight months makes a lot more sense.

And their career numbers are just as strong a motivator.

Both men have played since 2006, making a comparison easier although never perfect. Didi has posted a slash of .266/.313/.413 with 67 home runs and a collective WAR of 11.9 in that time.

Machado, meanwhile, has amassed a .279/.329/.476 line to go with 138 home runs. And his WAR is 27.9.

Sir Didi is Still a Great Yankee

Close observers will note that Gregorius was perhaps the equal of Machado in 2017; that is true. Sir Didi slashed .287/.318/.478 with 25 HR’s while Mr. Machado put up .259/.310/.471, but with 33 HR’s.

But Didi was 27 and should have been more developed than the 24-year old Machado. A better comparison is to Didi’s age 24 season. Again, this is imperfect science but all we have.

That year, 2014, Gregorius was still trying to prove to the Diamondbacks he was the superior hitting shortstop to Nick Ahmed. His case was not very effective as he hit only .226/.290/.363 with six home runs.

That was in only 80 games, which becomes a chicken and the egg question not worth pursuing.

The point is that it is likely that Machado will also improve as he enters his late 20’s. And while that might or might not happen, he has already proven worth taking that chance on.

Next: Can Andujar steal third for the Yankees?

Which is precisely what the Yankees are going to do: Insert Andujar at third some time this year, trade Didi after the season, and sign Machado to play short for the next decade.

Of course all of that is an entire season away as we are still in the first week of Spring Training. And anything can happen between now and then.

But the early signs continue to point to the fall of Didi Gregorius.

Home / New York Yankees