Fortune Favors the Bold
For the last several years, Orioles infielder Manny Machado has looked like the preeminent young third baseman in baseball. Had he stayed at the position, the Yankees were going to have to choose between keeping a promising homegrown player—Andujar—or spending big for maybe the best in the game.
Now they don’t have to.
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Machado announced to the Orioles that he wanted to play shortstop this year; they promptly and prudently moved him to short. And he announced to the world that teams looking for shortstops were going to get preference in his free agency decision making.
That, in turn, makes a very easy decision for the Yankees: Either pay a little more for Didi and his one more year before free agency, or pay a lot more to upgrade the position for the next decade.
Gregorius is after all already 28, and will be 30 in his free agent year. Machado on the other hand is all of 25 right now, so signing him to a ten year deal in eight months makes a lot more sense.
And their career numbers are just as strong a motivator.
Both men have played since 2006, making a comparison easier although never perfect. Didi has posted a slash of .266/.313/.413 with 67 home runs and a collective WAR of 11.9 in that time.
Machado, meanwhile, has amassed a .279/.329/.476 line to go with 138 home runs. And his WAR is 27.9.
Sir Didi is Still a Great Yankee
Close observers will note that Gregorius was perhaps the equal of Machado in 2017; that is true. Sir Didi slashed .287/.318/.478 with 25 HR’s while Mr. Machado put up .259/.310/.471, but with 33 HR’s.
But Didi was 27 and should have been more developed than the 24-year old Machado. A better comparison is to Didi’s age 24 season. Again, this is imperfect science but all we have.
That year, 2014, Gregorius was still trying to prove to the Diamondbacks he was the superior hitting shortstop to Nick Ahmed. His case was not very effective as he hit only .226/.290/.363 with six home runs.
That was in only 80 games, which becomes a chicken and the egg question not worth pursuing.
The point is that it is likely that Machado will also improve as he enters his late 20’s. And while that might or might not happen, he has already proven worth taking that chance on.
Next: Can Andujar steal third for the Yankees?
Which is precisely what the Yankees are going to do: Insert Andujar at third some time this year, trade Didi after the season, and sign Machado to play short for the next decade.
Of course all of that is an entire season away as we are still in the first week of Spring Training. And anything can happen between now and then.
But the early signs continue to point to the fall of Didi Gregorius.