New York Yankees Jacoby Ellsbury is exhibit A of why free agency changed

The Yankees likely regret signing Jacoby Ellsbury to a long-term deal. And this year’s free agency shows that almost every team in baseball has finally learned the lesson of Ellsbury and others.

When the New York Yankees signed CF Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year contract worth $153 million before the 2014 season, he had just hit .298/.355/.426. He’d also stolen 52 bases while being caught but four times.

It was the fourth time he had batted .298 or better in his first seven years, and the third time he had stolen at least 50 bases. And he was only two years removed from hitting 32 home runs. Some took that as a sign he would add power as he got older.

He was also 29.

But as many current front office personnel might have predicted, it was also the last time he would accomplish any of those feats. As much as I think statistics about players declining after the age of 30 are overblown, in Ellsbury’s case they are right on the nose.

Cue the Ominous Music

After a representative season in 2014, Ellsbury’s age 30 season, his slash dropped to .257/.318/.345 in 2015. He stole only 21 bases and was caught nine times while hitting seven home runs.

That is the kind of decline that baseball GM’s are wary of and warning owners about. Fortunately, he has rebounded a bit and shown flashes of his younger self.

But averaging .264, eight home runs and 21 stolen bases over the last two years is not what the Yankees thought they were paying for, especially at more than $21 million per year through 2020.

If you want to know why teams are cautious about giving players 30 and older long term contracts, all you have to do is look deep down the Yankees bench.

But he is far from the only example.