New York Yankees Jacoby Ellsbury is exhibit A of why free agency changed

No Vaccine for Luck

But it’s not just about older players getting long-term deals.

Teams are also regretting the trend of signing homegrown players to lengthy deals, as if being from the organization makes them immune to injury or premature decline. And the club from a rebuild requiring liquidating all assets.

Cincinnati, for instance, adhered to that model in 2014 when they signed homegrown RHP Homer Bailey to a six-year deal.

Bailey was 27 at the time and looked like a great bet. He had continued to improve every season, with 2014 his best. For the second consecutive year he pitched over 200 innings, and for the fifth successive season lowered his ERA and WHIP.

Homer had finally arrived at front-line starter status and seemingly headed for ace status. His 3.49 ERA and WHIP of 1.124 were the best of his career, and he was still improving. It seemed smart to lock him up long term.

But in 2014, at the age of 28, Homer immediately began to regress.

Injuries and ineffectiveness knocked him down to 145 IP the next season; he hasn’t broken 100 since. The closest he came was last year when he threw 91 innings to a 6.43 ERA and 1.692 WHIP.

And what have the Reds paid for this production? They shelled out $19 million last season, and have to pay him $44 mill over the next two seasons. They cannot even start a rebuild until this money comes off the books.

Then, how likely do you think they will be to hand out any contracts over four years? And I guess that the Tampa Bay Rays feel the same way.