New York Yankees Jacoby Ellsbury is exhibit A of why free agency changed

The Yankees likely regret signing Jacoby Ellsbury to a long-term deal. And this year’s free agency shows that almost every team in baseball has finally learned the lesson of Ellsbury and others.

When the New York Yankees signed CF Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year contract worth $153 million before the 2014 season, he had just hit .298/.355/.426. He’d also stolen 52 bases while being caught but four times.

It was the fourth time he had batted .298 or better in his first seven years, and the third time he had stolen at least 50 bases. And he was only two years removed from hitting 32 home runs. Some took that as a sign he would add power as he got older.

He was also 29.

But as many current front office personnel might have predicted, it was also the last time he would accomplish any of those feats. As much as I think statistics about players declining after the age of 30 are overblown, in Ellsbury’s case they are right on the nose.

Cue the Ominous Music

After a representative season in 2014, Ellsbury’s age 30 season, his slash dropped to .257/.318/.345 in 2015. He stole only 21 bases and was caught nine times while hitting seven home runs.

That is the kind of decline that baseball GM’s are wary of and warning owners about. Fortunately, he has rebounded a bit and shown flashes of his younger self.

But averaging .264, eight home runs and 21 stolen bases over the last two years is not what the Yankees thought they were paying for, especially at more than $21 million per year through 2020.

If you want to know why teams are cautious about giving players 30 and older long term contracts, all you have to do is look deep down the Yankees bench.

But he is far from the only example.

The Angels Pull the Trigger

The Angels, for instance, had to know they were going to pay for some compromised seasons when they signed 1B Albert Pujols.

He was 32 at the time, so even the most optimistic projections had to account for a serious decline in those last two seasons. But there was also reason to think Albert would stay Hall of Fame productive for several more years.

In his final season in St. Louis (2011) at the age of 31, Pujols slashed .299/.366/.541. The at-that-time perennial All-Star also swatted 37 home runs and 29 doubles while scoring 105 runs.

That added up to 313 total bases (TB) for Albert that year, fifth in the National League. The Angels thought it would be years before he dropped to an average player, perhaps as many as eight before he became less than.

It turns out; they didn’t have to wait that long. Not only did his numbers drop significantly in his first year in Anaheim (.285/.343/.516), but also those have proven to be his high water marks since.

For instance, last year Albert played his age 37 season. David Ortiz, as a comparison, was 37 in 2013. He hit .309/.395/.564 with 30 home runs and 38 doubles that year. I’m sure Yankees fans remember that well as much of his damage was done against them.

This is probably what Anaheim was hoping for. But last season, Pujols managed just .241/.286/.386, with 23 home runs and 17 doubles. That is a far cry from the 66 extra base hits he got in 2011.

And his 229 TB last year made him 59th in the American League.

Albert Pujols is signed through the 2021 season for an average of $28.5 million.

No Vaccine for Luck

But it’s not just about older players getting long-term deals.

Teams are also regretting the trend of signing homegrown players to lengthy deals, as if being from the organization makes them immune to injury or premature decline. And the club from a rebuild requiring liquidating all assets.

Cincinnati, for instance, adhered to that model in 2014 when they signed homegrown RHP Homer Bailey to a six-year deal.

Bailey was 27 at the time and looked like a great bet. He had continued to improve every season, with 2014 his best. For the second consecutive year he pitched over 200 innings, and for the fifth successive season lowered his ERA and WHIP.

Homer had finally arrived at front-line starter status and seemingly headed for ace status. His 3.49 ERA and WHIP of 1.124 were the best of his career, and he was still improving. It seemed smart to lock him up long term.

But in 2014, at the age of 28, Homer immediately began to regress.

Injuries and ineffectiveness knocked him down to 145 IP the next season; he hasn’t broken 100 since. The closest he came was last year when he threw 91 innings to a 6.43 ERA and 1.692 WHIP.

And what have the Reds paid for this production? They shelled out $19 million last season, and have to pay him $44 mill over the next two seasons. They cannot even start a rebuild until this money comes off the books.

Then, how likely do you think they will be to hand out any contracts over four years? And I guess that the Tampa Bay Rays feel the same way.

The Devil Made Them Do It

Back in 2012, the then 26-year old 3B Evan Longoria only appeared in 74 games but still put up a slash of .289/.369/.527 with 17 home runs. And he did so playing a premier defensive position.

That, along with his other even more productive first four seasons, delineated Evan as one of the best young players in the game, one with a very bright, and expensive, future. So Tampa did what they were supposed to and signed him to a six-year extension.

Of course, that did not start until after his arbitration years had expired, which was 2016.

This means that Longoria is signed through 2022, likely to be paid the $5 million buyouts in 2023. Until then, he will earn an average of almost $17 million per annum.

The extension followed every line of logic: The money was team friendly, and Evan was only signed through his age-36 season. But now Tampa probably wishes they had bought out his eligibility and waited to decide on a free-agent deal.

Performance Issues

That is partially due to performance. Longoria’s numbers have been trending down since he signed the deal, although I am in no way suggesting a relationship. Evan has always played hard, and there is almost no chance he slacked off with a new deal in hand.

No, worse than that is that this is one of the chances teams take. Evan still plays almost every day but his line of .261/.313/.424 from last year is his new norm.

And a hitter who seemed destined to hit 30 home runs a year through his mid-thirties hit just 20. That was the third time in the last four years he hit 22 or fewer…and he just turned 32.

But those are just the on-field issues.

Still a Field of Dreams

Way back when the extension was announced, there were two big pieces of news that Thomas Bassinger and the Tampa Bay Times relayed:

Principal owner Stuart Sternberg called Longoria “somebody we would expect and believe could be a Ray for life.”

That comment was de rigueur. But perhaps not this caveat.

Sternberg, a former Goldman Sachs partner, talked about the team’s “astoundingly big commitment” and its need to find new streams of revenue. “If by the end of this contract we’re not (in a new stadium), it’s not going to work out well,” he said.

I recently visited Ybor City while covering the Yankees. The proposed site pointed out to me still has grass on it, since there are no signs announcing the area as the future site of the stadium. Even as recently as three weeks ago, the mayor said that without more local funding the city could not move forward with the planning.

That’s how close Tampa is in receiving a new stadium.

So, Not That Close

So Longoria had to go. And that would be fine if the Rays could have either dumped all of his salary or gotten back a treasure trove of talented prospects. They were unable to do either.

Longoria was traded from Tampa Bay on Wednesday for outfielder Denard Span, star infield prospect Christian Arroyo and two minor league pitchers Tampa Bay in effect is responsible for $14.5 million of the $88 million Longoria is owed, and the Rays took on $13 million in guaranteed money due Span.

That last quote came courtesy of the NY Post.

Looking at his contract, there is an issue of deferred money. But as I am not sure if this is included in the 14.5 million, I am leaving it out of my analysis. Either way, the Rays will pay almost $28 million for Longoria to play for the Giants and an even worse player to suit up for them.

Tampa did get back up-and-coming prospect 3B Christian Arroyo, currently ranked 57th by MLB.com. Remember that Yankees Miguel Andujar and fellow third baseman is ranked 65th. That, however, merely swaps an established player for a hoped-for one, not an overwhelming return.

And so, far from being a forever Ray, Longoria is leaving with five years remaining on his six-year extension.

A Thought Experiment

Do you really think that if and when Arroyo turns out to be every bit as good as Longoria, the Rays are going to sign him to a long-term deal? Especially after seeing Longoria fade well before his 30th birthday?

Not likely.

In fact, it is getting less likely that anyone hands out any long-term deals, here meaning anything over four or five years maximum, and then only for the best available free agents. And if the
GM’s get their way; most contracts will be closer to two-year deals.