Recent rumors have suggested the Philadelphia Phillies might make a big leap forward and add two starting pitchers to their rotation before Opening Day. Would that move make sense, and how much could it really help Philadelphia?
Some of the talent the Philadelphia Phillies have accumulated in recent years are beginning to trickle into the major leagues. As they do, the Phillies will need to add pieces through free agency or trades to fill in the gaps. Are the Phillies far enough along to make a jump as significant as adding two top free agent starting pitchers?
The money is there
The Phillies have never paid the luxury tax in their franchise history. And they wouldn’t need to if they were to add a couple of the top remaining free agent starters. Their payroll is just a guaranteed $52.7 million, with arbitration and options potentially bringing it up to $67 million. That’s significantly below the 2018 luxury tax threshold of $197 million.
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Arguably the most expensive remaining free agent starter is Jake Arrieta. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to predict the contract he’ll get. But if the Phillies were to sign him to a deal guaranteeing him something in the ballpark of $20 million in 2018, they’d still remain significantly distant from the luxury tax.
Essentially, the finances aren’t an issue for the Phillies in 2018. It’s more of a question of whether the Phillies are far enough along for the front office to bet big on their roster with two high-profile acquisitions.
An improving offense and a solid bullpen
Excluding pitcher at-bats, the Phillies had a team OPS+ of 97. While not awful, it’s not exactly the productivity of a team you’d expect to see playing in late October. But the offense is on an upward trajectory.
Rhys Hoskins is set to have his first full season with the Phillies. In his 50 games in 2017, Hoskins had an OPS of 1.014. Catcher Jorge Alfaro is another player potentially on the cusp of his breakout year. He posted an OPS+ of 129 in his 29 games.
The Phillies’ 2017 bullpen was perhaps their greatest strength. The top five Phillies relievers in innings pitched averaged an ERA+ of 177.2. That includes Pat Neshek whose ERA was just 1.12 in his 40.1 innings pitched. If you add more capable starters to pitch the front six innings of games and look who’s waiting in the Phillies bullpen, it starts getting more difficult to see when opponents will get runs.
The Phillies might not quite be ready to compete just yet. But if you look at what they have, then add two top-tier starters, they may start to look like a club that could keep the NL East interesting.