The Atlanta Braves and their sleeper bullpen

Agents of Change

When collective improvements happen in baseball, it usually involves removing bad players and replacing them with good players. For much of the year, Jim Johnson was the de facto closer. Unfortunately, Johnson wasn’t able to carry over the 2016 magic into 2017. As the year wore on, Jim Johnson began to be used exclusively in low leverage innings. Jim Johnson arrived at his nadir after a brutal period punctuated by blown saves and meltdowns. So much of baseball is mental, and it became clear that Jim Johnson lost confidence in himself.

Luckily for the Atlanta Braves, there was already an effective reliever waiting in the wings to replace him.

Arodys Vizcaino, Failed Starter Turned Effective Reliever

It used to be that Arodys Vizcaino‘s mentioned in the same breath as Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado in prospect rankings. Braves fans awaited a starting pitching triumvirate that would deliver them to another pitching golden age. Ah, hindsight.

Arodys Vizcaino officially became a failed starting pitcher endeavor after ineffectiveness, injuries, and lack of a third pitch exposed him. However, there is a familiar refrain in MLB these days, one where failed starters can become valuable relievers. Look no further than Andrew Miller.

2017 was the year Arodys began putting it all together. A year after walking 6+ per nine, Arodys was able to limit walks to the tune of a 3.3 BB/9. Missing bats has never been an issue for Vizcaino, who enjoyed a career-high10.05 K/9. If you believe in the value of saves, Vizcaino only blew one save in thirteen attempts. By win probability added (WPA), Arodys added 1.9 wins to the cause.

There were red flags, however. The elephant in the room is a BABIP allowed of .248. Even for a fly ball heavy pitcher, that’s pretty low. Which brings me to the other worrisome trait, a fly ball rate of 45.3%. In the present home run climate, this fly ball heavy profile is given to a great degree of volatility.

On a non-competitive team, Arodys Vizcaino is a passable closer. In October, he is a middle reliever who would be on a short leash.

But just as Vizcaino usurped Jim Johnson, there is another pitcher who should eventually take Vizcaino’s job.