LAKE BUENA VISTA, FL – FEBRUARY 22: Pitcher A.J. Minter /
A Shaky 2017 Atlanta Braves Bullpen Could Become a Strength in 2018
Last year the Atlanta Braves deployed a bullpen corps which found itself in the bottom third of the majors by year’s end. The starting rotation, also bottom third in the league, likely did a fair amount of hand-wringing when they handed the game off to the bullpen. After all, last year’s bullpen featured Luke Jackson, Jason Motte, Jim Johnson, and Eric O’FLaherty, Jason Hursh, and Ian Krol. Late inning meltdowns were commonplace, and the bullpen didn’t exactly instill confidence in the young pitchers who wanted something to show for their efforts.
While much could be written about just how awful that Braves bullpen was, it’s important to recognize there was also a tale of redemption by years’ end. As bad relievers played themselves out of a job, the relief arms of the future began to emerge and, thankfully, displace their incumbents.
As the calendar rolled to September, the Atlanta Braves bullpen evolved into a more serviceable entity. To wit, the bullpen logged 100.1 innings in September, and a collective 24.1 K%, 9.5 BB%, and 3.66 FIP. A collection of new faces led the charge, and along with some additional newer faces, give a reason for hope in 2018.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – MAY 26: Arodys Vizcaino /
Agents of Change
When collective improvements happen in baseball, it usually involves removing bad players and replacing them with good players. For much of the year, Jim Johnson was the de facto closer. Unfortunately, Johnson wasn’t able to carry over the 2016 magic into 2017. As the year wore on, Jim Johnson began to be used exclusively in low leverage innings. Jim Johnson arrived at his nadir after a brutal period punctuated by blown saves and meltdowns. So much of baseball is mental, and it became clear that Jim Johnson lost confidence in himself.
Luckily for the Atlanta Braves, there was already an effective reliever waiting in the wings to replace him.
It used to be that Arodys Vizcaino‘s mentioned in the same breath as Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado in prospect rankings. Braves fans awaited a starting pitching triumvirate that would deliver them to another pitching golden age. Ah, hindsight.
Arodys Vizcaino officially became a failed starting pitcher endeavor after ineffectiveness, injuries, and lack of a third pitch exposed him. However, there is a familiar refrain in MLB these days, one where failed starters can become valuable relievers. Look no further than Andrew Miller.
2017 was the year Arodys began putting it all together. A year after walking 6+ per nine, Arodys was able to limit walks to the tune of a 3.3 BB/9. Missing bats has never been an issue for Vizcaino, who enjoyed a career-high10.05 K/9. If you believe in the value of saves, Vizcaino only blew one save in thirteen attempts. By win probability added (WPA), Arodys added 1.9 wins to the cause.
There were red flags, however. The elephant in the room is a BABIP allowed of .248. Even for a fly ball heavy pitcher, that’s pretty low. Which brings me to the other worrisome trait, a fly ball rate of 45.3%. In the present home run climate, this fly ball heavy profile is given to a great degree of volatility.
On a non-competitive team, Arodys Vizcaino is a passable closer. In October, he is a middle reliever who would be on a short leash.
But just as Vizcaino usurped Jim Johnson, there is another pitcher who should eventually take Vizcaino’s job.
Enter the Minter
The Atlanta Braves raised some eyebrows when they picked a college reliever named A.J. Minter with the 75th pick in the 2015 draft. That Minter was coming off of Tommy John surgery only added to this scrutiny. The Braves bought in to what Minter did prior to surgery, and it appears to be paying dividends. In the current era of “bullpen for the win”, relievers have never had more perceived value. In retrospect, the Braves may have been drafting according to climate, looking to building a future super bullpen.
A.J. Minter’s biggest question mark is always going to be health. That said, health is a question for every reliever, and the Braves were thrilled with getting Minter where they did. Minter burst onto the scene after an August 23rd call-up in 2017. Minter dominated right out of the gates, going on to post some extremely gaudy numbers.
43.3%. That was AJ Minter’s strikeout rate last year. That was second in baseball during his time in the majors, second only to this guy named Craig Kimbrel. Unlike the typical “effectively wild” relievers throughout baseball, Minter posted a microscopic 3.3% walk rate. All told, Minter ended 2017 with 26 strikeouts in 15 innings to go with two walks.
The lefty reliever gets his results with a fastball that averages 96 MPH and an extremely hard cutter that averaged 90 MPH. This particular cutter features slider-like movement, although you wouldn’t be wrong to call it a hard slider. It doesn’t really matter, because when your cutter/slider has a 24% whiff rate, you can call it what you want.
AJ Minter is not given to platoon woes. He held LHBs to a .191 wOBA, because they just couldn’t hit his fastball. Minter coaxed a 29% whiff rate on the pitch, which is absurdly plus for a fastball. Righties? Well they hit like quad-A players against Minter, to the tune of a .291 wOBA. This was thanks to his buzzsaw cutter which simply devoured righties at a 29.9% whiff rate.
Minter can make it as a high level closer because he doesn’t have to rely on batted ball outcomes to achieve his results. You could argue that his groundball rate of 37.5% is too low in this age. It’s not really a concern as Minter is going to reliably strike out more than a third of the batters he faces. His comical 0.96 FIP points to a pitcher who doesn’t rely on contact outcomes.
Minter has been groomed as a closer from the start, as Braves scouts knew they were seeing a very special arm when they drafted him. It is not a matter of if, but when, the Braves will turn to Minter to close out ball games.
If Minter is Batman, then this guy is Robin
Daniel Winkler has only arrived at the MLB level via a route Magellan would be proud of. After falling victim to Tommy John surgery, the Atlanta Braves pilfered Winkler from the Rockies in the 2014 Rule V draft. After a long rehab process spanning the better part of two calendar years, Winkler made the Braves 2015 opening day roster. In the season’s first few weeks, Winkler would go down again, this time with a gruesome elbow fracture while throwing a slider. This was a heartbreaking injury, and one with a completely unknown prognosis compared to Tommy John.
Dan Winkler finally made his way back into the majors in 2017, and the results were great. Winkler managed a 35% K rate en route to a 2.81 FIP. Already we’re mingling with closer stats. The Braves saw a pitcher worth sticking with, and Winkler has rewarded their investment in him.
More on Winkler. He pairs a mid 90s fastball with a heavy diet of hard cutters and the occasional two seam fastball as his hard pitches. The two-seamer didn’t get the grounders it should have and was largely ditched. The cutter and fastball got above average whiff rates at 12.6% and 15.5% respectively. Winkler’s biggest weapon is his two-plane slider which garnered a 17.5% swinging strike rate. He occasionally throws a split finger change up to alter the pace.
I can see Winkler eventually getting important reps in the 7th and 8th innings to pave the road to AJ Minter.
Waiting in the Wings
Going in to last year’s Rule V draft, the New York Yankees had a bit of a problem, albeit a good one. They simply had too many good minor league pitchers and relievers, and couldn’t fit them all on the 40 man. In a very shrewd move, the Atlanta Braves noticed that a certain enticing relief arm was left out in the cold.
That reliever was Anyelo Gomez. Similar to Arodys Vizcaino, Gomez was a failed starter for the Yankees and his development stalled. In 2017 the Yankees decided to finally convert him to a reliever, and the results were profound to say the least. Gomez ended up climbing four levels in the minors and decided to strike everyone out while doing so. Beginning in A ball, Anyelo Gomez struck out 14.8 per nine innings en route to a 1.93 ERA and a stingy 1.31 FIP. Gomez eventually earned a brief cameo in AAA to end the year after a 1.71 ERA and 2.22 FIP in AA.
Anyelo Gomez follows the AJ Minter and Dan Winkler mold in that he won’t need to be platooned. This is because of an easy plus changeup that goes with a mid to high 90s fastball. He also has a breaking pitch which comes and goes, but he mainly rides the fastball/changeup combo to success. The beauty of a changeup is its intended purpose: to get opposite handed batters out.
Gomez has shown that platoons don’t bother him, based on his AA numbers which were his largest upper minors sample. He threw 18 innings against lefties, sporting a 20:4 K/BB ratio and 2.50 ERA. In 18.2 innings versus righties, Gomez struck out 23 and walked seven to go with a 0.96 ERA.
The Sleeping Dragon for the Atlanta Braves
The quartet of Vizcaino, Minter, Winkler and Gomez is going to cause the NL East nightmares, given health. When you consider what the Atlanta Braves started 2017 with, this newer, younger, better bullpen will be a relief (pun intended?). As the price for established relievers continues its meteoric rise, the Braves are staying relevant the way a mid-market team has to: drafting and growing their own.
With the emphasis on eight man bullpens and shortening games, the Braves are building toward that ideal through drafts and keen Rule V picks. When the Braves finally become competitive and attempt to make the postseason, they will have a playoff-caliber bullpen mostly constructed.
There are many more good relievers who may make the opening day roster who have not been mentioned here. Some of these relievers are ready now, and some are just a year or less away. For the sake of being concise, I’ll parlay those individuals into a future post. Until then, rest easy knowing the Atlanta Braves bullpen will assuredly be significantly better in 2018.
